Why the Middle East Is Hard to Quit
Its share of world oil production is enough that disruptions still come as a shock.
By Walter Russell Mead
“I am a failure, and you have made me one,” Bill Clinton told Yasser Arafat in January 2001, after the Palestinian leader rejected the best peace offer Palestinians are ever likely to receive from an Israeli government.
Ever since, the Middle East has flummoxed and vexed American presidents.
A misbegotten war in Iraq came to dominate George W. Bush’s presidency.
Elected in large part because of his early opposition to Mr. Bush’s war, Barack Obama had to send troops back to Iraq to combat the rise of the Islamic State.
Joe Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan damaged his popularity, and his handling of the Gaza conflict ignited a civil war among Democrats that has yet to subside.
And now Donald Trump’s war in Iran has badly dented his popularity and shows no sign of ending.
Every president since George W. Bush has come into the White House hoping to limit America’s risks and costs in the Middle East.
As finances tighten at home, and as the price of limiting Chinese ambitions rises, the goal of reducing America’s Middle East footprint grows more attractive.
The longing for an exit is understandable.
Over the last generation, the burden of America’s commitments in the region has grown.
Beyond the Middle East, the U.S. hasn’t fought a serious war since Vietnam—in more than half a century.
In the Middle East, we’ve fought the 1991 Gulf War, the 2001-21 war in Afghanistan, the 2003-11 Iraq war, the Libyan intervention in 2011, the conflict with ISIS, and now Mr. Trump’s Iran war of 2026.
Yet as America’s Middle East commitments have expanded, our need for Middle Eastern oil has diminished.
The shale revolution has turned the U.S. into an energy superpower, producing more oil than Saudi Arabia.
The Western Hemisphere produces more oil than the Middle East.
Increasing fossil-fuel production from countries like Canada, Venezuela, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina should further solidify the Western Hemisphere’s leadership position.
Given this picture, people ask why we spend billions, even trillions, to police a region whose oil resources we don’t need.
The answer for many, especially on the far right and the far left, is an Israel lobby led by American Jews who allegedly don’t care how much American treasure and blood must be spent to protect the Jewish state.
In this way, weariness with apparently useless and unnecessary Middle East wars is adding to a rising tide of domestic antisemitism.
Yet the Middle East still matters.
The Western Hemisphere may have pumped roughly 37.4% of the world’s oil against only about 30.9% from the Middle East in 2025, but a price shock still reverberated around the world this year when Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Similar shocks hit the world’s farmers as Middle East exports of urea and phosphate fertilizers fell.
Not that Western Hemisphere production is irrelevant.
The Middle East produced only 18.1% of the world’s natural gas in 2025, against 35.2% in the Western Hemisphere.
Many American and Canadian consumers are enjoying reasonable prices for natural gas even as countries dependent on the Middle East for gas struggle to find adequate supplies.
Unfortunately, even increased production from Venezuela and Guyana won’t make oil markets more like the gas market.
If the forecasts of the U.S. Energy Information Administration prove accurate, projected increases in Western Hemisphere production of fossil fuels won’t be enough to prevent price shocks from the Middle East.
More production elsewhere will give us more flexibility in how we approach Middle East politics, but for the foreseeable future American security and economic interests are going to keep us engaged, no matter how many presidents in both parties dream of walking away.
Instead of fantasizing about an escape from the Middle East, Americans need to think harder about how to safeguard our essential interests at the lowest possible risk and cost.
During the Cold War, the U.S. secured key interests in the region without prolonged military engagements.
We need to cut the burden of our commitments without sacrificing interests that still matter.
Facilitating smarter security cooperation between Israel and key Arab states will remain a crucial American objective, but there is another country that has a role to play. Indian and American interests are broadly aligned in the Middle East.
Besides securing energy supplies, India cares deeply about the millions of its citizens who work in the Persian Gulf.
Deepening defense and tech ties with Israel and shared concerns about terrorism commit India to promoting cooperation between Arabs and Israelis.
And with Pakistan closely aligned with China, India’s interests in countering Pakistani influence in the Middle East line up with American concerns about Beijing.
Mr. Trump has a historic opportunity to reshape American policy in a difficult region.
Let’s hope he makes the most of it.
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