Half a Bubble Off Dead Center
By John Mauldin
Apr 20, 2015
This is really the finest gathering of minds I have been pleased to assemble for a Strategic Investment Conference. Click on the link above and peruse the lineup and schedule. The conference starts in a little over a week, on the evening of April 29, and lasts through May 2 at noon. Between those times we will wine and dine you as you feast on powerful ideas, one after another. You will come away with a much better grasp of our near-term future, including when and how the Fed will raise rates, what will happen to China, how Europe will evolve (or devolve), and what the overall geopolitical outlook for the world is. All in one place with some of the smartest and friendliest attendees you’ll ever find.
- 50% of the working population of the US works in small business.
- There are over 22 million self-employed workers, and the remaining almost 7 million businesses have almost 100 million employees.
- Small businesses have generated over 65% of the net new jobs since 1995.
- An astounding 543,000 businesses get started each month; and, for decades, more businesses would open than close. That has changed, and we are now closing more businesses than we are opening new ones. We have shut down the engine for the source of new jobs.
- Starting a new business is very risky. Only 7 out of 10 new employer firms survived at least 2 years, half last at least 5 years, a third make it for 10 years, and only a quarter stay in business 15 years or more. These are actually better odds than when I was researching and writing about the topic in the ’80s. Perhaps that is because 52% of all small businesses are now home-based, with lower overhead and clearly different business models than were prevalent 30 years ago.
- That self-employed market contributes over 6% of GDP.
We are strangling the real economy with easy-money policies and encouraging financial transactions that look a lot like Ponzi, as opposed to hedge, financing.