The Fed’s Mortgage Favoritism
When the central bank buys private assets, it distorts markets and undermines its claim to Independence.
By Jeffrey M. Lacker And John A. Weinberg
Oct. 7, 2014 6:42 p.m. ET
China currency push takes aim at dollar
David Marsh, Special for USA TODAY 5:25 p.m. EDT October 7, 2014
The issue of whether the Chinese should be part of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Right, the composite reserve currency used in official financing, is highly technocratic, but the political questions at stake go to the core of world money and power – and will be discussed, in the background, at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington this week.
The decision on a new SDR structure, to be made in the next 15 months, will influence how China and its currency can play a bigger part in driving world trade, investment and capital flows. The renminbi could eventually challenge the dollar and its pivotal position in world money — which is why the U.S. government and Federal Reserve are examining this with intense interest.
China is unlikely to mount an open campaign to enter the SDR, grouping the main reserve currencies, the dollar, the euro (linking countries in European monetary union led by Germany and France), the Japanese yen and British pound, and is valued at around $1.5.
Beijing would prefer the question of recalculating the composition of the SDR, which comes up for review in 2015, to follow market developments, reflecting a big increase in demand for renminbi financing from private banks, central banks, traders, corporations and asset managers.
Many hurdles remain. These include the renminbi's lack of formal convertibility for transactions that shift capital inside and outside the country, where Beijing is reluctant to abolish all controls. In addition, China still has to release more statistics to the Fund about its monetary reserves and other matters. However, Chinese measures over the past three years to liberalize and internationalize its currency, and a big increase in financial market interest in China, are pointing toward a broadening of the SDR's composition from January 2016.
An additional factor is China's own action to galvanize emerging market economies toward reforming word monetary arrangements. This includes the five-nation Brics group's decision to set up the New Development Bank in Shanghai, potentially challenging the IMF and the World Bank.
As the world's No. 2 economy after the U.S., China believes it is close to earning the status of a reserve money, the first time that an emerging market currency would attain this position.
Chinese entry into the "magic circle" has been advanced by the British government's September decision to issue renminbi-denominated bonds, the first big government to take such a step, and allow the proceeds to be held as reserves by the Bank of England.
The main conditions for the renminbi to pass the SDR test are that it should be widely used in trade and be "freely usable" in international payments and asset management. Although a long way behind the dollar, the renminbi has made impressive strides recently and is challenging the euro in several key fields.
Next year's planned review will touch, too, on the opportunity for the SDR to play a greater role on financial markets, for example in denominating bond issues. The SDR has lost ground as a financial vehicle in the past two decades, reflecting the surging importance of international private sector capital markets. But with the addition of the renminbi, it may be about to make a comeback.
David Marsh is Managing Director of Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a London think-tank.
France cautions Germany not to push Europe too far on austerity
France's Manuel Valls also warned David Cameron that Europe is "not ready for an upheaval of its institutions", offering no concessions on EU treaty terms
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
8:30PM BST 06 Oct 2014
France has denounced the eurozone’s austerity regime as deeply misguided and issued a blunt warning to Germany and the EU institutions that demands for further belt-tightening may set off a political backlash, endangering European stability.
The deficit will remain stuck at 4.3pc of GDP in 2015. A further €50bn of cuts are coming over the next three years. “If they make us reach a 3pc deficit, the country will be totally on its knees. It’s not possible,” he said.
This would put the new Juncker Commission on a dangerous collision course with both France and Italy, two of the eurozone’s big three, now closely aligned in a joint push for EMU-wide reflation and New Deal policies.
Mr Valls said France and Britain were defending Europe’s “civilizational mission and values”, together bearing the costs of military intervention in Africa and the Middle East, and this should be taken into account when judging budget breaches. “We are acting for the rest of Europe. Our military costs are more than we thought for Libya, Iraq and the Sahel,” he said.
Despite warm words for his British military allies, Mr Valls played down hopes that France might give ground on Treaty concessions for the UK before any referendum on EU membership. “We will listen to David Cameron but I don’t think Europe is ready for an upheaval of its institutions. It is dangerous to open the Treaties,” he said.
Mr Valls was in London to promote his pro-business agenda to City bankers, and to combat what he called “deplorable French-bashing”, reacting acidly to comments by Andy Street, managing director of John Lewis, who derided France as “sclerotic, hopeless and downbeat” after visiting Paris. “He must have drunk too much beer,” said Mr Valls.
France’s 75pc tax rate for the rich will be swept away by the end of the year, ending a public relations disaster that brought in little revenue, if any. France will no longer turn to more taxes to plug its deficits. “We have to cut public spending,” he said.
British opinion has been slow to grasp the radical shift in policy since President François Hollande’s volte-face earlier late last year, starting with a concordat with French business leaders, and culminating in the choice of Mr Valls to lead his Socialist government. The Valls team has burned its bridges with erstwhile supporters on the party Left. Key figures have been purged or have resigned in protest. The Socialist old guard is up in arms over the new economy minister, Emmanuel Macron, a former Rothschild banker.
It is far from clear whether Mr Valls can push his far-reaching measures through the French parliament, though he won a vote of confidence last month. His party campaigned for the status quo in 2012 and lacks a clear mandate for radical action.
“When we came to power, we made a strategic error. We didn’t tell the French people what the condition of the country really was: the level of the deficit, the debt and the trade balance,” he said.
“The welfare state and everything the Left stands for has been blown up by the shock of globalisation, which was much greater than people realised. When we were beaten, we fell back on our Old Left ideology. We spent 10 years failing to prepare, and now we have to push through our ideological revolution while in government, which is much more difficult,” he said.
Mr Valls plays down any suggestion that he is pursuing an Anglo-Saxon market agenda. “We will not get rid of the 35-hour working week. We are not a Thatcherite government,” he said. Yet his aim is to slash the size of the French state from 56pc of GDP to average European levels, a drastic overhaul of the French model.
Some have compared him with Germany’s Gerhard Schröder, who pushed through the Hartz IV reforms early in the last decade. These put a lid on wages and helped Germany regain export market share. But there is a big difference. Germany was able to do this during a global boom. All of southern Europe was losing relative competitiveness through high inflation at the time. Several economies were overheating.
The rub is that reforms are usually contractionary in the short-run. Mr Schröder has since admitted that he could not have won political backing for his bitter medicine without breaching EU deficit rules, allowing fiscal stabilisers to cushion the blow. France is trying to do it at a time of austerity, with half of Euroland in or near recession, and against powerful deflationary forces. “The situation is very different,” said Mr Valls.
As sweet revenge, France will have the upper hand again in Europe’s affairs soon enough. It has a high birth rate, while Germany is on the cusp of an ageing crisis and slow decline. “In 15 years' time, France will probably be ahead of Germany. We will be first,” said Mr Valls.
Fat Lady Is About to Sing, According to the Charts
Today’s rally doesn’t erase the bearish signals from recent market action, including small stock weakness.
By Michael Kahn
Oct. 8, 2014 4:14 p.m. ET
Standard & Poor’s 500
The Dollar Is Killing Gold, But For How Long?
- The dollar has recently been strong compared to other currencies.
- This relative dollar strength has lead to gold taking a massive hit.
- The strength of gold relative to the dollar, has not fundamentally changed, and will eventually triumph.
The past few months have been fantastic for those investing in the dollar. Returns have been solidly positive, and other currencies are seeing huge problems (the Yen, especially). While this has been taking place, gold has been hit hard and seen a large decrease over the past few months. I plan to show that this correction is unwarranted and that the strength of the dollar relative to other currencies does not translate to weakness of gold relative to the dollar.
The Historical Relationship Between Gold and the Dollar
(click to enlarge)
As we can see in the data going back to 1998, the gold spot price and the US Dollar Index show a strong negative correlation. When the dollar rises, gold falls, and vice versa. When the dollar falls, gold sees tremendous gains for the most part. What we have seen since 2012, curiously, is a generally steady US Dollar Index, but gold seriously underperforming relative to historical norms.
The sustainability of this trend is questionable at best, but it is clear that the future of gold depends heavily on the future of the dollar. What is not explained, though, is why gold sees such unwarranted gains when the dollar index sees only modest declines. It is my contention that the strength of the dollar relative to foreign currencies does not dictate fully the price of gold. That is, a debasement of the dollar also must be factored in to explain the outsized gains.
Future Expectations for the US Dollar Index
(click to enlarge)
The US Dollar Index has been flashing overbought signals since July, and Monday's large loss may be indicative of finally reaching a top. The dollar has done quite well, but these gains have been based on the relative weakness of other currencies, most notably Japan (more on that below). While the dollar has certainly been more stable than these other currencies, we are seeing right now too much of a flight to safety that is inevitably going to turn (and may have already begun to do so).
(click to enlarge)
Near-term Gold Expectations
(click to enlarge)
Gold has been hit especially hard over these past three months, but based on RSI we may be finally experiencing a tipping point. The RSI is indicating oversold, and the gain we saw on Monday may be indicative of a reversal. Yes, the death cross is still there, but I don't think that this will last. US Dollar gains are looking to top right now, and the dollar is incredibly weak relative to gold due to debasement.
Summary and Action to Take
I am still firmly convinced that gold is set to take off in the long term. The dollar has been debased badly, and the base/gold ratio is the highest that it has ever been.
(click to enlarge)
Anyone investing in the fundamentals of gold over the long term ought to be loading up, as this is potentially the greatest buying opportunity ever seen against the dollar. I am invested in gold bullion and also have long-term call options against Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDXJ). I also own shares of Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) as they have a nice dividend and are a nearly risk-free way to play the gold market with higher returns than owning gold itself.
The European Crisis Is Going Global – and We're Along for the Ride
By Peter Krauth, Resource Specialist, Money Morning ·
October 8, 2014
After printing $4 trillion since 2008, we've little to show for it.
Endless debates about the effectiveness of QE, or its lack thereof, haven't spawned better decisions, especially in Europe. Think periphery nations like Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy.
Better yet, take a look at the stock market, where worries about Europe's economy rattled investors. It's certainly not a pretty picture...
Recently one European national leader offered a somewhat unique response for dealing with the financial crisis and debt bubble.
It appears an unorthodox, yet sound, approach on the surface. But when you scratch beneath, it turns out just the opposite is true.
Developed economies would do well to consider the true state of this country's example of a "model" recovery before an even more catastrophic, debt-ridden future arrives, and erupts...
Iceland Isn't Greece... It's Worse
The country I'm talking about is Iceland.
With a population of just under 320,000, its economy lacks diversity, with fishing, aluminum, and energy as its dominant sectors.
Something it does have is the world's oldest functioning legislative assembly, the Alþingi, established in the year 930. That's a long time to have practiced democracy.
You'd expect that experience could have saved this tiny country's economy, but as it turns out Iceland has a lot more in common with the birthplace of democracy: Greece.
And unfortunately, the parallels are eerily similar.
Greek households, it's estimated, have lost $215 billion of wealth in the last seven years. Unemployment still runs near 27% with 44% of incomes below the poverty line.
Debt to GDP currently sits at 175% (EU's highest) and its latest annual deficit is 12.7%.
Bailed out by $332 billion in "rescue" loans from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, Greece is now saddled with a national debt of $470 billion. That's nearly half a trillion dollars, for a nation whose economy represents 1.4% of the entire EU.
Most of that money, by the way, goes to repay mainly German and French banks that were highly invested in Greek debt. The country's output has shrunk by a staggering 25% in the last six years.
This didn't have to happen to Greece. So why did it?
When Greece over-borrowed and over-spent in the past, it had its own currency, the drachma. So, floating exchange rates with other currencies effectively devalued the drachma, which decreased domestic demand for pricier imports. It also lowered the costs of Greek labor and exports, spurring foreign investment in the country, as well as tourism.
It was the free market at work - Adam Smith's classic "invisible hand," as it were. But now Greece is handcuffed with the euro as its currency. That's a large reason things went south in Greece; devaluing its currency is no longer an option.
So the Greeks will instead suffer under austerity for years, perhaps generations, along with a shrinking economy and soaring unemployment.
The "Opposite" Road to Recovery for the Icelandic Economy
Iceland, however, took the opposite route... sort of.
In 2008, overextended Icelandic banks also collapsed under the weight of their inflated mortgage "assets." Its financial sector shrank to a mere fifth of its former self.
The country let its banks fail and imposed capital controls. Deposits held in Iceland by foreigners are stuck. Foreign-held bank debt was sacrificed.
Some bankers were investigated and then charged with fraud; at least one went to jail.
Iceland was able to take a different route because it has sovereignty and could decide its own future.
The Icelandic krona dropped in value by half, its people accepted agonizing reforms, and the economy has posted better than 3% growth. There's even a risk the economy is overheating, with forecasts for 2014 and 2015 of 3.1% and 3.4% growth respectively.
Not being part of the EU and having its own currency allowed Iceland to make its own rules and decisions.
On the surface, Iceland appeared to do what Greece had done in the past when it used the drachma - default and devalue.
Or so it seemed...
Instead of austerity, Icelandic politicians resorted to capital controls.
The nation's central bank took on a massive IMF bailout in order to help (somewhat) prop up the krona. That's why Iceland's "recovery" from the crisis looks so impressive, for now.
But the bailout has caused national debt to triple, with currently over 17% of taxes going to pay its interest alone. Unemployment is low, but so are living standards, while prices have skyrocketed with inflation. And the now much weaker currency makes for costly imports, a needed lifeline for this tiny - and remote - nation.
Real estate prices have been devastated thanks to vanishing demand and high mortgage rates, leaving homeowners to deal with negative amortization loans. Remember those?
The IMF would like us to believe Iceland's debt-to-GDP is at a manageable 84%.
At the Clinton Global Initiative Symposium in New York, Iceland's President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson said "When you look at Iceland and how we have recovered in six years, we have recovered more than any other European country that suffered from the financial crisis."
Things looked so good, Iceland lost its appetite to join EU, even withdrawing its negotiating team from discussions. But Grímsson failed to mention that debt-to-GDP is 221% when you count outstanding bank liabilities. On that basis, only one country is worse: Japan at 227%. Even Greece is better at 175%.
The Nordic nation's top central banker has raised the idea of relaxing capital controls. But foreigners hold some $7.4 billion in Icelandic accounts, and many would want to leave, exposing banks to serious risks.
This "Volcanic" Eruption Will Rip Through Markets
Iceland has already endured difficult economic times, but its massively inflated debt has only softened the blow for the time being. The country is still running annual budget deficits, so odds are increasing they'll have to eventually default on a crushing debt load.
What lessons can we learn from all of this?
What Jim Rickards said about Iceland in The Death of Money holds true for the United States: "...They should have accepted considerable short-term pain and administered real structural reform rather than just paper over with still more debt."
That would have led to a true and robust recovery with capital properly allocated, instead of being misdirected thanks to artificially low rates.
As it turns out, despite a somewhat different approach, Iceland is actually no better off than anywhere else. And it's only a matter of time before its economy erupts like the country's second-highest peak: the volcano Bárðarbunga.
Here's the thing... we're now all sitting under a similar "volcano."
Read This, Spike That
Is It Scary Time for the Stock Market?
Could stocks have a hard landing? Are Yum! Brands and GoPro in particular trouble?
By John Kimelman
Updated Oct. 9, 2014 6:26 p.m. ET
Oct. 7, 2014 11:32 AM ET
- The economic sins of 2014.
- The sins of omission: economists claiming that the sluggish US economy was due to weather, when it was not.
- The sins of commission: Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve and Jim Yong Kim of the World Bank President.
Last Friday was Yom Kippur, the day when Jews around the world ask forgiveness for their transgressions from the year past. Rabbis remind the penitent to dwell on their sins of omission, in which they did nothing when a more thoughtful and proactive action was needed, and sins of commission, in which they actively participated in an unjust action. And while not all economists are Jewish, Gene Epstein the economics editor at Barron's, offered his thoughts on how this applies to the group.
While Gene is certainly on to something, I think he could have gone much further in his finger pointing. Increasingly, economists are calling the tune to which businesses and consumers dance. Since their words and opinions matter, they may consider seeking forgiveness for what they have said, and what they have not.
Sins of Omission
Despite clear evidence that elevated prices in stocks, bonds and real estate remain a direct consequence of zero percent interest rates and quantitative easing, the crowd has asserted again and again that the prices are justified by the surging U.S. economy. There is very scant evidence upon which to base such an opinion.
Most economists have held very tightly to the view that was widely shared at the end of 2013; that 2014 will be the year that the U.S. economy finally shakes off the malaise of the Great Recession. And even though the script has failed to live up to these expectations, the economists haven't seemed to notice.
During the First Quarter of this year, the economy contracted at an astounding annual pace of 2.1%. But economists and politicians were very insistent that the severe miss was solely a result of the difficult winter. Although severe winters can be a drag on an economy (my research shows that the 10 roughest winters over the last 50 years knocked about two points off the normal first quarter GDP), the snow could not fully explain a five point miss from what had been forecast by the consensus at the end of 2013. But that's exactly what they did.
This omission was compounded by their reaction to the 2nd quarter rebound, which showed the economy expanding by 4.6%. But while the crowd was ready to dismiss the very weak first quarter GDP as being a weather-related anomaly, they were not willing to acknowledge the role played by the same anomaly in artificially boosting second quarter GDP. My research, based on figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, has shown that strong second quarter rebounds almost always follow sub-par weather-related first quarters. This makes intuitive sense as well. Activity that is delayed in winter gets unlocked in spring. But economists look at the second quarter as if it represents the entire year. But already plenty of evidence has emerged that should sow doubts on the remainder of the year.
Even with the strong second quarter, economists are choosing to gloss over the fact that growth in the entire first half came in at just 1.25%, far below the projections that most have for the calendar year. To get to 2.5% GDP growth, which would be typical of a weak year, not the first year of a long-awaited recovery breakout, GDP would have to come in at 3.75% for the entire second half. To hit 3% for the year, second half growth would need to be 4.75%.
But this will have to occur without the tail winds of Fed QE support and at a time of heightened geopolitical concerns, and a housing and stock markets that look increasingly weak and vulnerable to correction. As a result, economists should take off their rose-colored glasses and ratchet down their full year estimates to conform more closely to reality. But that is not happening.
Sins of Commission
Rather than seeing, hearing, and speaking no evil, some leading figures are much more culpable in spreading bad information. While this list could prove lengthy, here are the top two offenders.
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen - In her September press conference, Yellen made the stunning assertion that the Fed's balance sheet, which in recent years has swelled to a gargantuan $4.5 trillion, will likely be reduced in size to "normal levels" by the end of this decade. While most accept this statement at face value, Yellen must know the absolute inability of the Fed to deliver on this promise.
To bring its balance sheet back to pre-crises levels of around $1 trillion, the Fed must sell about $3.5 trillion of debt over the next five years, or a pace of about $700 billion per year. This is a negative equivalent of about $58 billion per month in QE. Additionally, Yellen has claimed that this can be done without actively "selling" assets, and without tipping the economy back into recession. This claim is so fantastical that it must be considered active deception, a grave sin indeed.
First, if QE was necessary to inflate asset prices and create a wealth effect to drive consumer spending and power the recovery, how can the process be reversed without unwinding its effects and producing an even larger recession than the last? If the recovery is already stalling with interest rates still at zero, how can it gather more upward momentum if the Fed raises rates back to normal levels?
Secondly, if the Fed does not actively sell bonds into the market, it must hope to draw down the balance sheet by simply allowing older bonds to mature. This ignores the fact that the maturation process is far too slow to accomplish the task by the end of the decade, and it assumes that the Fed will not have to buy any new Treasury or Mortgage-backed bonds over that time. But in order to provide financing for ongoing Federal budget deficits, or to stimulate the economy if there were another economic downturn, the Fed would have no choice but to start buying again with both hands.
Since the current "recovery" is already 15 months longer than the average post-war recovery, it would be illogical to assume that we can make it through the next five years without another recession.
Of course, by affirming its intention not to actively sell any of its holdings, Yellen is attempting to defray any concerns the markets might have over the impact such sales would have on bond prices.
Lost on everyone, including Yellen herself, is that the impact on the markets is the same regardless of how the Fed's balance sheet shrinks. Even if the Fed allows bonds to mature, the Treasury would then be forced to sell an equivalent amount of bonds into the market to repay the Fed. The fact that a distinction without a difference reassures anyone shows just how delusional market participants remain.
World bank President Jim Yong Kim - In an interview at September's Clinton Global Initiative, the World Bank president urged the European Central Bank to follow the same "successful" experiments in quantitative easing that had been pioneered by the Federal Reserve. As proof of the policy's success, Kim pointed to the stronger GDP growth that is expected in the US in 2015 and 2016. In other words, he is attempting to prove his point not by what has happened thus far, but by what the consensus expects to happen in a year or two. This is no way to argue a point. Dr. Kim is a smart guy and I suspect he knows this, hence another sin of commission.
It would be difficult to make the case that six years of Quantitative Easing has created a healthy US economy. In addition to the subpar first half of 2014 GDP growth, the labor market, consumer sentiment, and wage growth all show signs of stagnation. So Dr. Kim has no choice but to hang his hat on a bright future that he, and most mainstream economists, expect to be right around the corner.
But dressing up a future possibility as a current certainty is a major foul in the business of economic forecasting. Dr. Kim, and others who have made similar claims, should fast an extra day.
Les doy cordialmente la bienvenida a este Blog informativo con artículos, análisis y comentarios de publicaciones especializadas y especialmente seleccionadas, principalmente sobre temas económicos, financieros y políticos de actualidad, que esperamos y deseamos, sean de su máximo interés, utilidad y conveniencia.
Pensamos que solo comprendiendo cabalmente el presente, es que podemos proyectarnos acertadamente hacia el futuro.
Gonzalo Raffo de Lavalle
Las convicciones son mas peligrosos enemigos de la verdad que las mentiras.
Quien conoce su ignorancia revela la mas profunda sabiduría. Quien ignora su ignorancia vive en la mas profunda ilusión.
“There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen.”
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
No soy alguien que sabe, sino alguien que busca.
Only Gold is money. Everything else is debt.
Las grandes almas tienen voluntades; las débiles tan solo deseos.
Quien no lo ha dado todo no ha dado nada.
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
We are travelers on a cosmic journey, stardust, swirling and dancing in the eddies and whirlpools of infinity. Life is eternal. We have stopped for a moment to encounter each other, to meet, to love, to share.This is a precious moment. It is a little parenthesis in eternity.
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