The Sorry State of the World Economy
Data released in January paint a bleak picture of advanced-economy prospects. Even if some emerging economies – which face serious challenges of their own – manage to pick up some of the slack, the world economy will remain encumbered by the combination of economic interconnectedness and political balkanization.
Kaushik Basu
NEW YORK – January is traditionally a time for assessing the developments of the previous year, in order to anticipate what the new one has in store. Unfortunately, even though we may be at a turning point for the better politically, the data that have emerged in the last month do not paint a promising picture of the global economy’s short-term prospects.
The tone was set early in the month by the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, along with the accompanying articles. The report paints a picture as bleak as its subtitle – “Darkening Skies” – and cuts the growth forecast for the advanced economies in 2020 to 1.6% (down from 2.2% in 2018).
Moreover, last week, the European Central Bank sounded the alarm over the eurozone economy. Between the prospect of a disorderly Brexit and rising protectionism, exemplified by the trade war between the United States and China, Europe is subject to increasing uncertainty.
Making matters worse, Germany is facing a growth slowdown. According to its own official data, the economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018, while the Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing sank to 49.9 – a four-year low. Given Germany’s role as the backbone of the eurozone economy, its economic struggles are likely to cascade beyond its borders.
This is particularly problematic, because, after more than a decade of fighting crisis and recession, the advanced economies have depleted their ammunition for countering a slowdown. With the ECB’s benchmark interest rate at zero, there is little room for a cut. The Bank of England has not risked raising interest rates since August. Even the US Federal Reserve signaled that it was slowing down the pace of its rate hikes. A new crisis would thus leave the advanced economies fumbling for fresh monetary instruments.
The future is somewhat brighter for the emerging world, though dark clouds loom there, too. As the World Bank report emphasizes, emerging economies are increasingly strained by government debt, which has risen by 20 percentage points of GDP, on average, since 2013, with payments owed largely to private creditors demanding high interest rates.
Africa is on a promising trajectory. As the African Economic Outlook 2019 notes, the continent has had a challenging few years, with growth falling from close to 5% annually in 2010-2014 to only about 2% in 2016. Yet, last year, growth climbed back to 3.5% in 2018, and next year, it could surpass 4%, propelled by some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, such as Ethiopia and Rwanda, which are posting annual growth rates well above 7%. Nonetheless, with major players like Nigeria and South Africa punching well below their weight, Africa is not yet in a position to pick up the slack left by the ailing advanced economies.
The situation is more promising in Asia. China has played a major role over the last 30 years, but currently it is clearly in an adjustment phase, as it shifts to a higher-wage lower-growth economy. In 2018, Bangladesh, India, and Indonesia grew by an impressive 7.9%, 7.3%, and 5.2%, respectively, and the World Bank estimates that, in 2020, growth will exceed 7% in South Asia and 6% in East Asia.
But, again, there are serious challenges ahead. In India, an employment crisis is looming, rooted in the country’s focus on the big players and its failure to convert economic growth into good jobs, particularly for its educated youth.
Given this, the budget that will be presented to India’s parliament on February 1 – just months before the general election, expected to be held between April and May, – will require extremely skilled policy design that creates programs to boost demand and employment, without running up the deficit. I believe monetary policy also has a significant role at this juncture. With inflation under control, the Reserve Bank of India could help stimulate the economy with a small cut in interest rates.
In Indonesia, President Joko Widodo – commonly known as Jokowi – is facing mounting criticism for failing to achieve the 7% growth target he set when he took office in 2014. In fact, Jokowi’s target was always overly ambitious for Indonesia, an economy with a per capita income of over $10,000 (adjusted for purchasing power parity).
Still, the government has important tasks to carry out. For one, the central bank’s response to the depreciation of the rupiah – six interest-rate hikes in the last three quarters – may have been excessive, even though the currency reached a 20-year low against the US dollar last year. Moreover, there needs to be better coordination of policies across local governments, which have been competitively raising the minimum wage, undermining Indonesia’s ability to take over low-cost manufacturing from China.
Yet Jokowi – who will seek another five-year term in the April election – remains a source of hope. Illustrating his commitment to inclusivity, he is among the few political leaders in the developing world who have spoken up in favor of LGBTQ+ rights. If he is able to leverage his valuable personal qualities – which include a commitment to secularism and modesty that is becoming increasingly rare among political leaders – to push for needed structural reforms, Indonesia can achieve 6% annual GDP growth, making it a powerful driver of regional and global economic performance.
Even if some emerging economies manage to secure strong growth, however, the world economy will remain encumbered by the combination of economic interconnectedness and political balkanization. At a time when the world urgently needs to improve the coordination of monetary, fiscal, and trade policies, it has, instead, been rolling back what little coordination previously existed. This is a direct result of worsening leadership in major economies, especially the US under President Donald Trump.
It is impressive what US institutions – from the Fed and the judiciary to state governments, the media, and academia – have been attempting during these trying times. One also hopes voters globally will recognize the folly of nationalism and xenophobia in a deeply interconnected world.1
If none of this happens, my advice is simple: adopt the brace position.
Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.
jueves, febrero 14, 2019
THE SORRY STATE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY / PROJECT SYNDICATE
|
Etiquetas:
World Economic And Political
jueves, febrero 14, 2019
THE CENTURIES LONG CONTEST FOR THE BLACK SEA / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES
|
Etiquetas:
Black Sea,
Geopolitics,
Russia,
Turkey
The Centuries Long Contest for the Black Sea
By Xander Snyder
|
jueves, febrero 14, 2019
DID AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEET5 AN IMMOVABLE OBJECT? / SEEKING ALPHA
|
Etiquetas:
Investment Strategies,
Stock Markets
Did An Irresistible Force Meet An Immovable Object?
by: Lance Roberts
Summary
- As we have discussed previously, price movements are very much confined by the "physics" of technicals.
- We lifted profits at the 200-dma and added hedges to the Equity and Equity Long/Short portfolios.
- What will be critically important now is for the markets to retest and hold support at the Oct-Nov lows, which will coincide with the 50-dma.
- A failure of that level will likely see a retest of the 2018 lows.
- We lifted profits at the 200-dma and added hedges to the Equity and Equity Long/Short portfolios.
- What will be critically important now is for the markets to retest and hold support at the Oct-Nov lows, which will coincide with the 50-dma.
- A failure of that level will likely see a retest of the 2018 lows.
Since the day after Christmas, the markets have been in a surge very similar to what we saw in January of 2018.
Here is January 2018:
And 2019:
Of course, in February 2018, the rally ended.
While I am not suggesting that the markets are about to suffer a 10% correction, what I am suggesting, as I wrote this past week, is that the markets have been "Too Fast & Too Furious."
"Short-term technical indicators also show the violent reversion from extreme oversold conditions back to extreme overbought."

We said then the most likely target for the rally was the 200-dma. It was essentially the level at which the "irresistible force would meet the immovable object."
The chart below is updated through Friday afternoon:
As noted, we lifted profits at the 200-dma and added hedges to the Equity and Equity Long/Short portfolios.
What will be critically important now is for the markets to retest and hold support at the Oct-
Nov lows which will coincide with the 50-dma. A failure of that level will likely see a retest of the 2018 lows.
A retest of those lows by the way is not an "outside chance." It is actually a fairly high possibility. A look back at the 2015-2016 correction makes the case for that fairly clearly.
But even if a retest of lows doesn't happen, you should be aware that sharp market rallies are not uncommon, but almost always have a subsequent retracement.
The point here is that the move off of the December lows is likely now complete, for now.
Thomas Thornton from Hedge Fund Telemetry had a great note out this past week on this point.
"The strong move off the lows in December is complete. As you have seen I've moved from a very high exposure level of 90% net long from mid December to now net short.
Various internals are overbought, sentiment is back in the elevated zone, and price targets have been achieved. There have been 45 new DeMark sell signals and only 2 buy signals so far in February. Recall in December there were 225 buy signals and 25 sell signals which had an average gain together of 11.5% since. In January there were 72 total signals with the majority 53 sells/19 buys with only a gain of 0.5% since. It's telling me a shift is coming and that's lower. How low? As of now, I'm not saying new lows but higher lows but that could change if some Trend Factor levels break and we see downside Countdowns start."
SentimenTrader also recently noted market performance when the VIX hits a three-month low with the S&P under the 200-day. Performance is very negative going forward.
Signs Of Caution
As we noted last Tuesday, there are a litany of things that are worth paying attention to. To wit:
It is too early to suggest the "bear market of 2018" is officially over.
But, the rally has simply been "Too Fast, Too Furious," completely discounting the deteriorating fundamental underpinnings:
- Earnings estimates for 2019 have sharply collapsed as I previously stated they would and still have more to go. In fact, as of now, the consensus estimates are suggesting the first year-over-year decline since 2016.
- Stock market targets for 2019 are way too high as well.
- Despite the Federal Reserve turning more dovish verbally, it DID NOT say it actually WOULD pause its rate hikes or stop reducing its balance sheet.
- Larry Kudlow said the U.S. and China are still VERY far apart on trade.
- Trump has postponed his meeting with President Xi, which puts the market at risk of higher tariffs.
- There is a decent probability the U.S. government winds up getting shut down again after next week over "border wall" funding.
- The effect of the tax cut legislation has disappeared as year-over-year comparisons are reverting back to normalized growth rates.
- Economic growth is slowing as previously stated.
- Chinese economic has weakened further since our previous note.
- European growth, already weak, will likely struggle as well.
- Valuations remain expensive
Despite recent comments that "recession risk" is non-existent, there are various indications which suggest that risk is much higher than currently appreciated. The New York Federal Reserve recession indicator is now at the highest level since 2008.
Also, as noted by George Vrba recently, the unemployment rate may also be warning of a recession as well.
"For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions. This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
The model, updated with the January 2019 rate of 4.0%, does not signal a recession. However, if the unemployment rate should rise to 4.1% in the coming months the model would then signal recession."
The point here is that ignoring the "risks" leaves you "exposed." If you think it's going to rain, you carry an umbrella.
This is why we recently raised cashed and added hedges to portfolios - just in case it rains. And, right now, it seems to be sprinkling a bit. As John Murphy via StockCharts.com noted on Friday:
"It looks like the 200-day averages that we've all been watching have managed to contain the 2019 rally. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 pulling back from that red overhead resistance line. That's not too surprising considering the steepness of the recent rally which put stock indexes in a short-term overbought condition. The upper box in Chart 1 shows the more sensitive 9-day RSI line falling to the lowest level in a month after reaching overbought territory above 70. That also shows loss of upside momentum. The lower box shows daily MACD lines in danger of turning negative for the first time in a month. All of which suggests that the early 2019 stock rally has failed its first attempt to regain its 200-day moving average."
However, one of the biggest "warning flags" we are watching currently, and why we have taken a more cautious stance in portfolios, is because "bonds ain't buyin' it."
As shown in the chart below, the market has not only broken out of its rising wedge, but also yields have been dropping sharply as "risk on" is rotating to "risk off."
While the bulls clearly took charge of the market in late December, the question is whether or not they can maintain control.
The weight of macro evidence is going to weigh on the markets sooner than later, which is why we are opting to hedge risk and hold on to higher levels of cash currently.
The rally we discussed on December 25th has hit all of our targets, and then some.
Don't be greedy.
See you next week.
The Real 401(k) Plan Manager
A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors
There are four steps to allocation changes based on 25% reduction increments. As noted in the chart above, a 100% allocation level is equal to 60% stocks. I never advocate being 100% out of the market, as it is far too difficult to reverse course when the market changes from a negative to a positive trend. Emotions keep us from taking the correct action.
Looking For Support
Over the last several of weeks, we have watch a sharp rally in stocks as Washington, the Fed, and global central banks have put their best foot forward to provide a "put" underneath stock prices following the rout last year.
That rally ran into our target resistance at the 200-dma last week and stocks are taking a breather. We continue to recommend taking some action in plans if you haven't done so already.
- If you are overweight equities, reduce international, emerging market, mid-, and small-capitalization funds on any rally next week. Reduce overall portfolio weights to 75% of your selected allocation target.
- If you are underweight equities, reduce international, emerging market, mid-, and small-capitalization funds on any rally next week but hold everything else for now.
- If you are at target equity allocations, hold for now.
Continue to use rallies to reduce risk towards a target level with which you are comfortable.
Remember, this model is not ABSOLUTE - it is just a guide to follow.
Unfortunately, since 401(k) plans don't offer a lot of flexibility and have trading restrictions in many cases, we have to minimize our movement and try and make sure we are catching major turning points.
We want to make sure that we are indeed within a bigger correction cycle before reducing our risk exposure further.
Current 401(k) Allocation Model
The 401(k) plan allocation plan below follows the K.I.S.S. principle. By keeping the allocation extremely simplified, it allows for better control of the allocation and a closer tracking to the benchmark objective over time. (If you want to make it more complicated you can, however, statistics show that simply adding more funds does not increase performance to any great degree).
401(k) Choice Matching List
The list below shows sample 401(k) plan funds for each major category. In reality, the majority of funds all track their indices fairly closely. Therefore, if you don't see your exact fund listed, look for a fund that is similar in nature.
The list below shows sample 401(k) plan funds for each major category. In reality, the majority of funds all track their indices fairly closely. Therefore, if you don't see your exact fund listed, look for a fund that is similar in nature.
jueves, febrero 14, 2019
DALIO´S FEAR OF THE NEXT DOWNTURN IS LIKELY UNDERSTATED / SEEKING ALPHA
|
Etiquetas:
Central Banking,
Financial Markets,
Monetary Policy,
The Fed,
U.S. Economic And Political
Dalio's Fear Of The Next Downturn Is Likely Understated
by: Lance Robert
Summary
- Dalio made the remarks in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos on Tuesday where he reiterated that a limited monetary policy toolbox, rising populist pressures and other issues, including rising global trade tensions, are similar to the backdrop present in the latter part of the Great Depression in the late 1930s.
- However, while the markets are celebrating the very clear confirmation that the "Fed Put" is alive and well, it should be remembered these "emergency measures" are coming at a time when we are told the economy is booming.
- As Dalio noted, one of the biggest issues facing global Central Banks is the ongoing effectiveness of "Quantitative Easing" programs.
- However, while the markets are celebrating the very clear confirmation that the "Fed Put" is alive and well, it should be remembered these "emergency measures" are coming at a time when we are told the economy is booming.
- As Dalio noted, one of the biggest issues facing global Central Banks is the ongoing effectiveness of "Quantitative Easing" programs.
"What scares me the most longer term is that we have limitations to monetary policy - which is our most valuable tool - at the same time we have greater political and social antagonism." - Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates
Dalio made the remarks in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos on Tuesday where he reiterated that a limited monetary policy toolbox, rising populist pressures and other issues, including rising global trade tensions, are similar to the backdrop present in the latter part of the Great Depression in the late 1930s.
Before you dismiss Dalio's view Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Strategy Fund posted a gain of 14.6% in 2018, while the average hedge fund dropped 6.7% in 2018 and the S&P 500 lost 4.4%.
The comments come at a time when a brief market correction has turned monetary and fiscal policy concerns on a dime. As noted by Michael Lebowitz yesterday afternoon at RIA PRO
"In our opinion, the Fed's new warm and cuddly tone is all about supporting the stock market. The market fell nearly 20% from record highs in the fourth quarter and fear set in. There is no doubt President Trump's tweets along with strong advisement from the shareholders of the Fed, the large banks, certainly played an influential role in persuading Powell to pivot.
Speaking on CNBC shortly after the Powell press conference, James Grant stated the current situation well.
"Jerome Powell is a prisoner of the institutions and the history that he has inherited.
Among this inheritance is a $4 trillion balance sheet under which the Fed has $39 billion of capital representing 100-to-1 leverage. That's a symptom of the overstretched state of our debts and the dollar as an institution."
As Mike correctly notes, all it took for Jerome Powell to completely abandon any facsimile of "independence" was a rough December, pressure from Wall Street's member banks, and a disgruntled White House to completely flip their thinking.
In other words, the Federal Reserve is now the "market's bitch."
However, while the markets are celebrating the very clear confirmation that the "Fed Put" is alive and well, it should be remembered these "emergency measures" are coming at a time when we are told the economy is booming.
"We're the hottest economy in the world. Trillions of dollars are flowing here and building new plants and equipment. Almost every other data point suggests, that the economy is very strong. We will beat 3% economic growth in the fourth quarter when the Commerce Department reopens.
We are seeing very strong chain sales. We don't get the retail sales report right now and we see very strong manufacturing production. And in particular, this is my favorite with our corporate tax cuts and deregulation, we're seeing a seven-month run-up of the production of business equipment, which is, you know, one way of saying business investment, which is another way of saying the kind of competitive business boom we expected to happen is happening." - Larry Kudlow, Jan 24, 2019.
Of course, the reality is that while he is certainly "spinning the yarn" for the media, the Fed is likely more concerned about "reality" which, as the data through the end of December shows, the U.S. economy is beginning to slow.
"As shown, over the last six months, the decline in the LEI has actually been sharper than originally anticipated. Importantly, there is a strong historical correlation between the 6-month rate of change in the LEI and the EOCI index. As shown, the downturn in the LEI predicted the current economic weakness and suggests the data is likely to continue to weaken in the months ahead."

Limited Monetary Tool Box
As Dalio noted, one of the biggest issues facing global Central Banks is the ongoing effectiveness of "Quantitative Easing" programs. As previously discussed:
"Of course, after a decade of Central Bank interventions, it has become a commonly held belief the Fed will quickly jump in to forestall a market decline at every turn. While such may have indeed been the case previously, the problem for the Fed is their ability to 'bail out' markets in the event of a 'credit-related' crisis."
"In 2008, when the Fed launched into their "accommodative policy" emergency strategy to bail out the financial markets, the Fed's balance sheet was only about $915 Billion. The Fed Funds rate was at 4.2%.
If the market fell into a recession tomorrow, the Fed would be starting with roughly a $4 Trillion dollar balance sheet with interest rates 2% lower than they were in 2009. In other words, the ability of the Fed to 'bail out' the markets today, is much more limited than it was in 2008."
But it isn't just the issue of the Fed's limited toolbox, but the combination of other issues, outside of those noted by Dalio.
The nonprofit National Institute on Retirement Security released a study in March stating that nearly 40 million working-age households (about 45 percent of the U.S. total) have no retirement savings at all. And those that do have retirement savings don't have enough. As I discussed recently, the Federal Reserve's 2016 Survey of consumer finances found that the mean holdings for the bottom 80% of families with holdings was only $199,750.

Such levels of financial "savings" are hardly sufficient to support individuals through retirement. This is particularly the case as life expectancy has grown, and healthcare costs skyrocket in the latter stages of life due historically high levels of obesity and poor physical health. The lack of financial stability will ultimately shift almost entirely onto the already grossly underfunded welfare system.
However, that is for those with financial assets heading into retirement. After two major bear markets since the turn of the century, weak employment and wage growth, and an inability to expand debt levels, the majority of American families are financially barren. Here are some recent statistics:
- 78 million Americans are participating in the "gig economy" because full-time jobs just don't pay enough to make ends meet these days.
- In 2011, the average home price was 3.56 times the average yearly salary in the United States. But by the time 2017 was finished, the average home price was 4.73 times the average yearly salary in the United States.
- In 1980, the average American worker's debt was 1.96 times larger than his or her monthly salary. Today, that number has ballooned to 5.00.
- In the United States today, 66 percent of all jobs pay less than 20 dollars an hour.
- 102 million working age Americans do not have a job right now. That number is higher than it was at any point during the last recession.
- Earnings for low-skill jobs have stayed very flat for the last 40 years.
- Americans have been spending more money than they make for 28 months in a row.
- In the United States today, the average young adult with student loan debt has a negative net worth.
- At this point, the average American household is nearly $140,000 in debt.
- Poverty rates in U.S. suburbs "have increased by 50 percent since 1990".
- Almost 51 million U.S. households "can't afford basics like rent and food".
- The bottom 40 percent of all U.S. households bring home just 11.4 percent of all income.
- According to the Federal Reserve, 4 out of 10 Americans do not have enough money to cover an unexpected $400 expense without borrowing the money or selling something they own.
- 22 percent of all Americans cannot pay all of their bills in a typical month.
- Today, U.S. households are collectively 13.15 trillion dollars in debt. That is a new all-time record.
Here is the problem with all of this.
Despite Central Bank's best efforts globally to stoke economic growth by pushing asset prices higher, the effect is nearly entirely mitigated when only a very small percentage of the population actually benefit from rising asset prices. The problem for the Federal Reserve is in an economy that is roughly 70% based on consumption, when the vast majority of American's are living paycheck-to-paycheck, the aggregate end demand is not sufficient to push economic growth higher.
While monetary policies increased the wealth of those that already have wealth, the Fed has been misguided in believing that the "trickle down" effect would be enough to stimulate the entire economy. It hasn't. The sad reality is that these policies have only acted as a transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy and created one of the largest "wealth gaps" in human history.
The real problem for the economy, wage growth and the future of the economy is clearly seen in the employment-to-population ratio of 16 to 54-year-olds. This is the group that SHOULD be working and saving for their retirement years.
The current economic expansion is already set to become the longest post-WWII expansion on record. Of course, that expansion was supported by repeated artificial interventions rather than stable organic economic growth. As noted, while the financial markets have soared higher in recent years, it has bypassed a large portion of Americans NOT because they were afraid to invest, but because they have NO CAPITAL to invest with.
To Dalio's point, the real crisis will come during the next economic recession.
While the decline in asset prices, which are normally associated with recessions, will have the majority of its impact at the upper end of the income scale, it will be the job losses through the economy that will further damage an already ill-equipped population in their prime saving and retirement years.
Furthermore, the already grossly underfunded pension system will implode.
An April 2016 Moody's analysis pegged the total 75-year unfunded liability for all state and local pension plans at $3.5 trillion. That's the amount not covered by current fund assets, future expected contributions, and investment returns at assumed rates ranging from 3.7% to 4.1%.
Another calculation from the American Enterprise Institute comes up with $5.2 trillion, presuming that long-term bond yields average 2.6%.
The massive amount of corporate debt, when it begins to default, will trigger further strains on the financial and credit systems of the economy.
Dalio's View Is Likely Understated.
The real crisis comes when there is a "run on pensions." With a large number of pensioners already eligible for their pension, the next decline in the markets will likely spur the "fear" that benefits will be lost entirely. The combined run on the system, which is grossly underfunded, at a time when asset prices are dropping will cause a debacle of mass proportions. It will require a massive government bailout to resolve it.
But it doesn't end there. Consumers are once again heavily leveraged with sub-prime auto loans, mortgages, and student debt. When the recession hits, the reduction in employment will further damage what remains of personal savings and consumption ability. The downturn will increase the strain on an already burdened government welfare system as an insufficient number of individuals paying into the scheme is being absorbed by a swelling pool of aging baby-boomers now forced to draw on it. Yes, more Government funding will be required to solve that problem as well.
As debts and deficits swell in the coming years, the negative impact to economic growth will continue. At some point, there will be a realization of the real crisis. It isn't a crash in the financial markets that is the real problem, but the ongoing structural shift in the economy that is depressing the living standards of the average American family. There has indeed been a redistribution of wealth in America since the turn of the century. Unfortunately, it has been in the wrong direction as the U.S. has created its own class of royalty and serfdom.
The issue for future politicians won't be the "breadlines" of the 30s, but rather the number of individuals collecting benefit checks and the dilemma of how to pay for it all.
The good news, if you want to call it that, is that the next "crisis," will be the "great reset" which will also make it the "last crisis."
Suscribirse a:
Entradas (Atom)
Bienvenida
Estimados amigos,
Les doy cordialmente la bienvenida a este Blog informativo con artículos, análisis y comentarios de publicaciones especializadas y especialmente seleccionadas, principalmente sobre temas económicos, financieros y políticos de actualidad, que esperamos y deseamos, sean de su máximo interés, utilidad y conveniencia.
Pensamos que solo comprendiendo cabalmente el presente, es que podemos proyectarnos acertadamente hacia el futuro.
Gonzalo Raffo de Lavalle
Les doy cordialmente la bienvenida a este Blog informativo con artículos, análisis y comentarios de publicaciones especializadas y especialmente seleccionadas, principalmente sobre temas económicos, financieros y políticos de actualidad, que esperamos y deseamos, sean de su máximo interés, utilidad y conveniencia.
Pensamos que solo comprendiendo cabalmente el presente, es que podemos proyectarnos acertadamente hacia el futuro.
Gonzalo Raffo de Lavalle
Las convicciones son mas peligrosos enemigos de la verdad que las mentiras.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Quien conoce su ignorancia revela la mas profunda sabiduría. Quien ignora su ignorancia vive en la mas profunda ilusión.
Lao Tse
“There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen.”
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
Warren Buffett
No soy alguien que sabe, sino alguien que busca.
FOZ
Only Gold is money. Everything else is debt.
J.P. Morgan
Las grandes almas tienen voluntades; las débiles tan solo deseos.
Proverbio Chino
Quien no lo ha dado todo no ha dado nada.
Helenio Herrera
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
Karl Marx
If you know the other and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
Sun Tzu
Friedrich Nietzsche
Quien conoce su ignorancia revela la mas profunda sabiduría. Quien ignora su ignorancia vive en la mas profunda ilusión.
Lao Tse
“There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen.”
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
Warren Buffett
No soy alguien que sabe, sino alguien que busca.
FOZ
Only Gold is money. Everything else is debt.
J.P. Morgan
Las grandes almas tienen voluntades; las débiles tan solo deseos.
Proverbio Chino
Quien no lo ha dado todo no ha dado nada.
Helenio Herrera
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
Karl Marx
If you know the other and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
Sun Tzu
We are travelers on a cosmic journey, stardust, swirling and dancing in the eddies and whirlpools of infinity. Life is eternal. We have stopped for a moment to encounter each other, to meet, to love, to share.This is a precious moment. It is a little parenthesis in eternity.
Paulo Coelho
Paulo Coelho

Archivo del blog
-
►
2020
(2008)
- ► septiembre (145)
-
▼
2019
(2103)
- ► septiembre (187)
-
▼
febrero
(147)
-
▼
feb 14
(7)
- THE SORRY STATE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY / PROJECT SYN...
- THE CENTURIES LONG CONTEST FOR THE BLACK SEA / GEO...
- DID AN IRRESISTIBLE FORCE MEET5 AN IMMOVABLE OBJEC...
- DALIO´S FEAR OF THE NEXT DOWNTURN IS LIKELY UNDERS...
- THE HIDDEN RISK IN CONSUMER GIANTS´SHOPPING SPREE ...
- SANTANDER SHOCKS MARKET WITH BOND DECISION / THE F...
- CHINA BULKS UP ON GOLD RESERVES FOR A SECOND CONSE...
-
▼
feb 14
(7)
-
►
2018
(1928)
- ► septiembre (173)
-
►
2017
(1947)
- ► septiembre (160)