Trump Blockades the Blockaders in Iran
The regime made its nuclear intentions clear in 21-hour negotiations.
By The Editorial Board
We’re a long way from Tuesday night’s declaration of victory over Iran, and the good news is President Trump seems to know it.
On Saturday the U.S. team left foundering negotiations in Pakistan, and on Sunday Mr. Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for ships using Iranian ports.
Iran has denied passage to most oil and gas tankers, and now the regime will get the same treatment.
Iran’s failure to come to terms was predictable.
Tehran took Mr. Trump’s eagerness for a cease-fire as a sign of desperation and confirmation that its energy strategy is a winner.
The regime won’t even open the Strait amid the cease-fire, so there was little reason to think its leaders would abandon their decadeslong nuclear objectives and ideological core.
As Vice President JD Vance explained after marathon talks failed, “We need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon.”
The latter half is the key.
No matter what Iran’s regime says, the only reason it needs domestic uranium enrichment capability is to pursue a bomb.
Mr. Trump summed up the talks on Sunday.
“There is only one thing that matters,” he wrote on Truth Social.
“IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!”
The regime says the U.S. is asking too much, but Mr. Trump is right to stick to his terms on dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.
During negotiations for Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif walked out and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry ran after him.
This dynamic was one reason the deal allowed enrichment, sunset its restrictions, and let Iran keep the infrastructure to reach weapons-grade when the regime wanted.
By walking away, Mr. Trump tells the regime not to expect a repeat.
By having the more dovish Mr. Vance execute the walkout, the President also signals that Iran won’t be able to exploit divisions in his Administration.
The regime complained about previous U.S. envoys and asked for Mr. Vance, but its real problem is Mr. Trump, the U.S. President who called Iran’s bluff.
We raised the blockade option in Saturday’s paper, and it makes sense as long as Mr. Trump is willing to accept the energy-market pain.
“Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION,” the President wrote Sunday.
Why should Iran alone be exempt from the costs of its illegal actions in Hormuz, raking in revenue while it starves the rest of the world?
Even as the U.S. sought to pressure the regime, it was undercutting itself by encouraging Iranian oil exports.
Iran now has an incentive to restore traffic in the Strait.
As does China, whose tankers had been given priority.
Rather than smuggle new air defenses to Iran, as U.S. intelligence suspects it is doing, let Beijing pressure the regime to resume oil shipments.
Mr. Trump says the Navy will even seize tankers that have paid a toll to make it out of the Gulf, another blow to China if the U.S. can execute it.
With the help of allies, the President added, the Navy will also de-mine the Strait—important preparation for the ultimate goal of reopening Hormuz to all.
Iran’s regime will have to take that threat more seriously.
The regime will also have to consider a new the possibility of U.S. air strikes to destroy its oil-export infrastructure at Kharg Island.
This was unlikely while U.S. policy was to keep Iran’s oil flowing.
Now it seems possible, especially if Mr. Trump finds the blockade too slow-moving a policy tool.
Over weeks and months a blockade would strangle the regime’s revenue, but the President may want results at the negotiating table sooner.
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Any reduction in energy flows, even from the trickle Iran was allowing, will be felt by markets and U.S. allies, especially in Asia.
Oil prices will spike if the blockade is enforced at any length.
The President presumably knows this.
He’s telling Iran’s leaders they nonetheless won’t win by playing the clock.
“Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so,” Mr. Trump wrote Sunday.
He was played to get the cease-fire, and if oil won’t flow there’s no reason to ease pressure on the regime.
Oil exports are a better target than Mr. Trump’s misguided threats last week to destroy Iranian “civilization” or all of its power plants.
As the President said in his first term, the U.S. shouldn’t start a war it doesn’t intend to win.
His challenge now is to prove to Iran’s regime he meant what he said.
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