LATIN AMERICANS ARE WORRYINGLY RELAXED ABOUT AUTHORITARIANISM / THE ECONOMIST

Attitudes to democracy

Latin Americans are worryingly relaxed about authoritarianism

The Latinobarómetro poll shows a region that is happier with its democracies, but at ease with illiberalism

For the first time since 2015 there are more Latin Americans who think their country is progressing than those who think it is moving backwards, though almost half see stagnation (see chart 1). 

Only a bare majority think that democracy is preferable to other modes of government, but that is still a small increase on recent years. 

Though scathing about their politicians and institutions, Latin Americans are a shade less dissatisfied with the way their political systems work in practice. 

Nayib Bukele, the elected autocrat who runs El Salvador with an iron fist, continues to be by far the most admired leader in the region.

These are some of the findings of the latest Latinobarómetro poll, taken in 17 countries and published exclusively in The Economist. 

Because the poll has been taken regularly since 1995, it does a good job of showing how attitudes in the region are evolving. 

Although Latin America has suffered years of economic stagnation, political turmoil and the terrifying advance of organised crime, this year’s survey data point to a degree of resilience.

Support for democracy has nudged up since the 2023 survey, though it still sits below the level usually maintained before 2017 (see chart 2). 

Importantly, Latin Americans still believe in voting; as in the past, the survey shows that new presidents provide a boost to democracy. 

That applies in Argentina, which elected Javier Milei as president last year, as well as in Mexico, where the new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is a protégée of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the popular ruler from 2018 until this year. 

Elections in Ecuador, Guatemala and Panama also revived faith in democracy. 

Support for it has fallen in Peru, which is saddled with a frivolous president, Dina Boluarte, and a self-serving Congress, and in Bolivia, where decision-making is paralysed by a power struggle between the president, Luis Arce, and his former political mentor, Evo Morales. 

This year’s poll reveals widespread discontent in both places.

Unopposed democracy

Satisfaction with the way democracy works has also ticked up, though two-thirds of respondents remain discontented (see chart 3). 

Back in 2009, at the height of the commodity boom that lifted many of the region’s economies, almost as many were happy with their democracies as were not.

Dig a little deeper and attitudes to democracy become ambivalent. 

More than half—and 61% of those who define themselves as upper-class—say it would not worry them if an undemocratic government took over, so long as it solved their country’s problems. 

“The greatest weakness of Latin American democracy is that around four out of ten think it can work without political parties, parliament or an opposition,” says Marta Lagos, Latinobarómetro’s director. 

The rise in support for democracy in Mexico, even as its new president is concentrating power in the executive, is symptomatic of that contradiction.

In a region scarred by extreme inequalities of income and wealth, 72% think their country is governed by powerful groups for their own benefit, though that is down from 79% in 2018. 

El Salvador and Mexico buck this trend, with 62% and 47% respectively agreeing that their countries are governed for the good of all. 

Though 76% think the distribution of income in their country unfair, 89% believe so in Chile and 85% in supposedly socialist Venezuela.

In the years before the covid-19 pandemic, Latin America saw several social explosions, with sometimes violent mass street protests led by frustrated young people. 

The mood is more patient now. 

Only 26% say their society needs radical change, down from 30% last year, and 35% say it can improve with small changes. 

But the majority reject the status quo.

There is little confidence in institutions. 

Although the Catholic church remains the most trusted of the bunch, it has lost the confidence of around one in ten. 

In contrast, trust in the police has risen. 

That reflects a demand for security in the face of crime. 

Even so, almost twice as many respondents think that the economy, rather than security, is the biggest problem in their country.

Despite the region’s generally mediocre economic growth, 60% say that they and their family have made progress in the past ten years. 

And 48% now define themselves as middle-class, up from 41% last year and 32% in 2020. 

On the other hand, 25% say they lack sufficient food either some or most of the time. 

Access to a mobile phone is enjoyed by 92%, access to the internet by 69% and 35% have access to a car. 

Support for the market economy has increased steadily, from 47% in 2007 to 66% today (see chart 4). 

That chimes with a slight tilt towards the right in underlying political attitudes.

West still best

If they had to choose, Latin Americans would prefer closer ties with the United States than China. 

But that was before Donald Trump’s election victory, and they have a more positive view of President Xi Jinping than of Mr Trump. 

Even so, and unlike some other parts of the global south, Latin Americans tend to identify with the West more than the east.