Green light, go
Turkey launches an attack on northern Syria
The long-feared clash will have consequences across the Middle East

IT SEEMED ALMOST inevitable that America would forsake the Kurds in Syria. It took Donald Trump to do it in such haphazard fashion. On October 6th the president announced that American troops would withdraw from northernmost Syria. He then acquiesced in neighbouring Turkey’s plan to invade and rout the Kurds who control the area. Mr Trump has long wanted out of Syria, but his abrupt decision blindsided American officers, to say nothing of the Kurds. On October 9th the Turkish army began its offensive.
America has about 1,000 troops in Syria, a vestige of the campaign to defeat Islamic State (IS). America’s informal allies in that fight included a Kurdish militia known as the People’s Protection Units, or YPG. The Kurds fought bravely and effectively against the jihadists and gained control of a statelet called Rojava. That created an intolerable situation for Turkey, because the YPG has close ties with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a separatist group that has fought the Turkish army for 35 years.
Around 150 American troops were thus stationed on the border to serve as a tripwire between a NATO ally (Turkey) and a reliable partner (the Kurds). Diplomats sought to mollify the Turks. A deal last year saw the YPG withdraw from Manbij, a town west of the Euphrates. In August Turkey and America agreed to set up a buffer zone down the length of the border. None of this worked. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, not only opposed America’s co-operation with the YPG, but also any Kurdish autonomy in Syria.
To head off a Turkish incursion, America had to promise the Kurds an open-ended deployment in north-east Syria. That was an untenable policy, particularly in the age of Mr Trump. He tried to withdraw all American troops from Syria in December after a phone call with Mr Erdogan. That decision (announced, naturally, on Twitter) prompted his defence secretary, James Mattis, to resign and was quickly reversed.
His announcement on October 6th was no less contentious. In a rare split with Mr Trump, Republican lawmakers joined their Democratic colleagues to condemn the move. Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator close to Mr Trump, warned of “most severe sanctions” against Turkey if it went ahead with an offensive.
Mr Trump himself was characteristically erratic. In the space of 48 hours he all but endorsed the Turkish operation, threatened Turkey with sanctions should it cross his unspecified red lines, and then praised its contribution to NATO. Turkish officials who thought they had a deal with Mr Trump were left puzzled and fuming. “We don’t see only a single US any more, but many voices coming from different interest groups,” said Mesut Hakki Casin, an adviser to Mr Erdogan.
On the ground, America’s drawdown has already begun. Its soldiers have abandoned outposts near the towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain. As the Turkish army advances, backed by local Sunni Arab rebel groups that are not terribly fond of America, it will grow ever harder to protect the American troops elsewhere in Syria. What began as a limited withdrawal may end with America abandoning all its positions.
But talk of an imminent slaughter of the Kurds is probably overblown. Despite a reputation for standing their ground, Kurdish fighters deprived of American support are unlikely to want open conflict with a larger Turkish army—especially not on the flat plains of north-east Syria. Still, an incursion could displace many of the 750,000 people living along the border.
Hunkered down on their side, the YPG will have nowhere to turn but south. The group might cut a deal with Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator, relinquishing some autonomy in exchange for the regime’s protection. To the long list of unintended consequences in the Middle East, add this: Kurdish fighters trained by America could end up pressed into service for Mr Assad.
Apart from Turkey’s own Kurds, plus some liberals, most Turks are likely to cheer the coming offensive. The main opposition parties make a habit of deferring to Mr Erdogan whenever he invokes national security. He suffered a setback earlier this year when his Justice and Development (AK) party lost control of Turkey’s biggest cities in local elections. Success in Syria could offset the damage.
Most Turks are also likely to back Mr Erdogan’s plan to flood the areas now under Kurdish control with some of the 3.6m Syrian refugees living in Turkey. Opinion polls show mounting levels of resentment towards the guests. Since the start of the year, Turkey has sent thousands of them back to Syria. Mr Erdogan says the 30km “peace corridor” his army plans to create would be a magnet for up to 2m refugees. This is either delusional or a euphemism for forced resettlement. Sending mostly Arab refugees to a region populated mostly by Kurds risks fanning tensions and future conflict.
According to Mr Trump, Turkey has promised to take responsibility for tens of thousands of IS fighters and their families now held in north-east Syria. Most are under YPG guard in camps like Al-Hol, home to some 70,000 people who live in increasingly desperate and unsafe conditions. But Mr Erdogan’s proposed safe zone does not include Al-Hol. And Turkey does not have a good track record when it comes to jihadists. Many first reached Syria by taking advantage of lax Turkish border controls. With the YPG distracted by enemies to the north, American officers fear IS will have space to regroup.
America never had a coherent Syrian policy. Barack Obama called for Mr Assad to go, yet refused to help rebels get rid of him. He declared the use of chemical weapons a “red line”, then failed to enforce it. His choice of the Kurds to fight IS was expedient but put America at odds with Turkey. Mr Trump has accelerated an inevitable conflict. He does not seem to have thought about what comes next.
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