A CAPTIVE AMERICAN IN IRAN COULD LEAD TO FURTHER ESCALATION / THE ECONOMIST

Missing in Iran

A captive American in Iran could lead to further escalation

 

It could prompt Donald Trump to follow through on his worst threats

AMERICA HAD been lucky in its air war against Iran. 

In the first Gulf war in 1991 it lost 28 fixed-wing planes in combat; in that conflict Iraq took 16 pilots and air crew as prisoners of war (POW). 

In Operation Epic Fury, America’s losses of people had been confined to friendly fire over Kuwait. 

But its luck ran out on April 3rd, when an F-15E fighter jet was lost over Iran. 

One pilot has been rescued; the fate of the other is unknown. 

In a separate incident, an A-10 Warthog ground-attack aircraft is thought to have crashed near the Strait of Hormuz, with its lone pilot rescued. 

If Iran were to capture an American airman alive, that could trigger another round of escalation in a war that shows no sign of easing.

America has conducted more than 12,000 combat flights, striking as many targets, in five weeks of war against Iran. 

F-15E Strike Eagles, which can attack both air and ground targets, probably flying from Jordan, have conducted many of those strikes, often releasing bombs at close range. 

America’s aircraft loss rate has been exceptionally low by historical standards. 

Most of Iran’s air defences have been destroyed, but not all; some can “pop up”, attacking targets of opportunity. 

Plenty of other things could have brought the plane down, such as a technical malfunction. 

Tasnim, an Iranian state news agency affiliated to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the country’s main armed force, claimed that the IRGC had downed the plane. 

Images showed debris from the wing and tail of an aircraft thought to be based at RAF Lakenheath in England, as well as an empty ejection seat on the ground.

Photographs and videos published on social media showed an HC-130 modified cargo plane and HH-60W helicopters, both specialised search-and-rescue aircraft, operating at low altitude in daylight over Khuzestan, in south-western Iran, around 400km from the nearest friendly base, in Kuwait. 

The HC-130 operates as an airborne command post, communications relay and refuelling platform; the helicopters pick up any downed pilots. 

The rescue missions are in themselves extremely risky, with the planes vulnerable to fire by small arms and shoulder-fired rockets. 

Some American and Iranian news reports suggest that a Black Hawk helicopter, possibly involved in the rescue effort, may have been struck, before escaping into Iraq. 

Its crew is safe, according to Newsmax, an American outlet.

Strike Eagles carry a pilot and a weapon-systems officer. 

The fate of the second crew member now hangs in the balance. 

Iran has promised a reward for those who find the downed crew; one citizen is thought to have offered 10bn tomans ($60,000). 

There are reports that the public have been urged to “shoot them if you see them”.

Captured pilots have often become central to the narrative of American wars. 

In Vietnam, almost 500 air crew were taken as prisoners by North Vietnam, most famously John McCain, who would later become a senator and presidential candidate. 

In 1983 an American navigator was captured by Syrian forces in Lebanon and held for 30 days, before high-profile negotiations secured his release. 

In 1991 and 2003 Saddam Hussein used downed American pilots for propaganda purposes, forcing them to record video statements opposing the war and parading them on television.

Iran has also captured American personnel in peacetime. 

The diplomats seized in the American embassy in 1979 were hostages, not POWs. 

But in 2016 ten US Navy crew were seized by the IRGC near Farsi island in the Persian Gulf. 

They were held for less than a day, though photographed kneeling, with hands on heads, in humiliating fashion.

In recent weeks American leaders’ language towards Iran has been bellicose and harsh. 

Pete Hegseth, America’s defence secretary, has said that America would show “no quarter, no mercy” towards Iran; he has revelled in “death and destruction from the sky, all day long”. 

Donald Trump, America’s president, said in a televised address on April 1st that he would send Iran “back to the stone ages, where they belong”. 

That could make life harder still for any captives.

If Iran were to capture an American officer, it would serve as a potent bargaining chip. 

Mr Trump suggested in his speech that the war would go on only for another two to three weeks. 

If Iran were able to parade a POW on television—an act that would violate the Geneva Conventions—the country could add to its leverage, on top of its tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz. 

Refusing to disclose any information about the pilot’s fate or whereabouts could also give it an advantage. 

On April 3rd Iran said that it was unwilling to participate in talks with America in Islamabad and that America’s demands were unacceptable.

Should the crew member be rescued, the incident may well cause some jitters in America but would not be seen as a big military setback. 

Serbia, for instance, shot down an American stealth attack aircraft in 1999, with little impact on the outcome of the war. 

But a captive American airman in Iranian hands would almost certainly trigger outrage among many Americans, potentially inducing Mr Trump to respond harshly to coerce Iran into returning him or her. 

In recent weeks the president has threatened to blow up Iranian power plants and desalination facilities. 

On April 2nd America destroyed a bridge under construction in the north of Iran, with Mr Trump boasting that it was the biggest in the country. 

He has backed off from the worst of his threats; a desperate bid to secure the release of a POW could change that.