Iran Will Define Trump’s Legacy
He has a strong case to make, but if he backs down, the costs will be profound.
By Walter Russell Mead
President Donald Trump in Washington, March 16. Jonathan Ernst/ReutersWhen overwhelming force meets unyielding resistance, the result is often explosive.
That is what we are seeing this week as President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury encounters Iran’s determination to resist at all costs.
From all accounts, Israeli and American military strikes are meeting and even exceeding their goals of disassembling the regime’s infrastructure.
Yet Tehran continues to disrupt oil traffic in the vital Persian Gulf even as it lashes out at its neighbors.
Two weeks in, it appears to be a stalemate.
Devastating airstrikes have not broken the mullahs’ will to resist.
The effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz and the global turmoil in energy and stock markets haven’t shaken Mr. Trump’s resolve.
The cruel glare from that explosion is revealing some hard truths.
For the president, the question is whether he pulls back or dives deeper in.
The answer will define his place in history.
If the U.S. pulls back from the new Gulf war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz and achieving goals like securing Iran’s nuclear materials, the consequences for Mr. Trump’s power and prestige, at home and abroad, will be profound.
“Trump always chickens out” won’t merely be an insult his enemies hurl at him.
It will be carved on his tombstone.
Yet to advance further into the chaos of an escalating and widening war holds other risks.
Unless American forces can break Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, the economic consequences of the war will inexorably grow.
Potential attacks on Iran to achieve concrete objectives, whether to remove its stockpiles of enriched uranium or to occupy its oil facilities on Kharg Island, require boots on the ground.
The more deeply Mr. Trump commits himself to the war, the greater the reputational cost of disentangling from it should success prove elusive.
The Gulf Arab states have discovered how fragile their vaunted prosperity is.
Their wealth cannot protect them from Iranian missiles, drones or blockades.
The wars raging across the region since Hamas’s attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, make investors cautious about committing large sums to infrastructure and facilities in a potential war zone.
They cannot prosper without American guarantees, but those guarantees come at a price.
For Europeans, the harsh light of war illustrates their powerlessness and dependency.
The Ukraine war has combined with poorly conceived green energy policies to raise energy costs so high that they threaten the competitiveness of European industry.
A prolonged war in the Gulf would have grave consequences for struggling European Union economies, but years of military underinvestment leave those countries with few options for affecting the outcome of the war.
At times like this, Europeans need to speak with one voice to have any effect on events, but the stress of war seems to be driving European capitals apart rather than pulling them together.
Spain has denounced the American-led war. Germany has tilted toward Washington, although it is firmly rejecting requests for German naval assistance.
France and Italy are asking Iran for help in getting oil shipments through the Gulf.
Belgium’s prime minister has called for normalizing relations with Russia to restore Europe’s access to cheap natural gas.
Indo-Pacific countries are equally shocked by their vulnerability to events they can’t control.
The U.S. presented the war as a fait accompli to its Indo-Pacific allies; they have been left to cope with the consequences of decisions that affect them profoundly, but with little ability to influence Washington’s policymaking.
From Pakistan to Korea, no region on the planet is more dependent on Middle East energy than the Indo-Pacific.
The growing costs and complexities of the Iran war pose the greatest threat yet to Mr. Trump’s unorthodox presidency, but he still has some cards to play.
His intuitive grasp of the logic of power, his genius for improvisation, and his willingness to adapt dramatic and unconventional approaches equip him with skills that a war president needs.
Crucially, the shock waves the war has sent around the world reinforce the importance of an American victory to stakeholders far and near.
Ceding control of a vital waterway and of resources necessary for the prosperity of billions of people to a fanatical and bloodthirsty regime is a recipe for permanent crisis and upheaval.
Mr. Trump did not make the public case for the war before he launched it.
Nor did he consolidate the relations of trust and solidarity with allies that would encourage them to support him in the hour of need.
Both omissions have cost him in these early weeks of what could well be the defining test of his presidency.
But he has a solid case to make, and to the degree that the American people and our allies abroad understand the stakes, he can find the support that he needs to finish the mission.
Walter Russell Mead is the Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship at Hudson Institute, the Global View Columnist at The Wall Street Journal and the Alexander Hamilton Professor of Strategy and Statecraft with the Hamilton School for Classical and Civic Education at the University of Florida.
He is also a member of Aspen Institute Italy and board member of Aspenia. Before joining Hudson, Mr. Mead was a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations as the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy. He has authored numerous books, including the widely-recognized Special Providence: American Foreign Policy and How It Changed the World (Alfred A. Knopf, 2004). Mr. Mead’s most recent book is titled The Arc of A Covenant: The United States, Israel, and the Fate of the Jewish People.
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