Israel is alienating its most important Arab partner
By holding up a gas deal and accusing Egypt of violations in Sinai, Netanyahu is endangering a vital peace treaty
Ksenia Svetlova
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threat this month to block a $35bn gas deal with Egypt is a dangerous miscalculation that threatens to undermine Israel’s most vital Arab partnership.
Netanyahu justified halting the agreement by citing supposed Egyptian violations of the peace treaty through military deployments in Sinai — a claim that Egypt denies and which reflects a troubling pattern of manufactured crises designed to pressure Cairo into accepting policies no Egyptian government could ever embrace.
After 46 years of cold peace and generally constructive co-operation, an increasingly hostile wind is blowing from Jerusalem towards Cairo.
This represents a profound strategic error at a moment when Egypt already faces intense domestic and international pressure over Gaza.
The allegations against Egypt follow a familiar script.
Netanyahu, or unnamed “government sources”, make serious claims about possible violations, the media quickly echoes them, then Likud supporters vehemently defend this position on TV and social media.
Early this year, Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, warned Jewish American organisations about alleged offensive weapons that he claimed amounted to “a clear violation” in Sinai, and promised Israel would “very soon and very emphatically” address the supposed Egyptian military build-up.
These claims were later debunked by Israeli security officials, who clarified that social media reports about increased Egyptian forces in Sinai were “not correct” and had been “disseminated by rightwing figures for political reasons”.
Egypt’s troop presence in Sinai is monitored continuously — not only by the Israel Defense Forces, but also by the Middle East’s most robust monitoring force.
Israeli authorities have arrested two of Netanyahu’s advisers for allegedly unlawful ties to Qatar — and the revelation that Israeli government employees on Qatar’s payroll helped spread anti-Egyptian messaging compounded the crisis, shocking Egyptian diplomats.
The stalled gas deal would provide enormous mutual benefits: increased Israeli gas production, expanded export infrastructure and Egypt’s $400mn investment in pipeline connections.
Egypt desperately needs gas for its domestic market, while Israeli companies stand to profit handsomely.
The reason Israeli officials are holding it up lies in Gaza policy — or rather, the absence of a coherent one.
They refuse to discuss realistic “day after” plans, instead reciting the empty mantra: “Neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority.”
This policy vacuum has created space for extremist fantasies, including expecting Egypt to accept Palestinian “voluntary relocation” from Gaza.
Leiter previewed this strategy in February and President Donald Trump has suggested Egypt, Jordan, and others should absorb Gaza’s population.
The timing of the gas deal suspension, coinciding with potential Israeli reoccupation of Gaza City, suggests a co-ordinated pressure campaign tied to the so-called “Gaza Riviera” vision.
This approach fundamentally misunderstands Egyptian red lines.
No Egyptian government will participate in forced Palestinian relocation.
Both the security implications and the political costs would be devastating.
Egypt has paid a steep price for maintaining peace with Israel during the Gaza war.
Pro-Palestinian demonstrators have attacked Egyptian diplomatic missions worldwide, while Cairo faces criticism for co-operating with Israeli policies.
The current trajectory threatens to undermine all co-operation between the two countries.
With no ambassadors currently serving in Cairo or Tel Aviv, diplomatic channels are narrowing precisely when expanded dialogue is essential.
The 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty remains one of the Middle East’s most successful diplomatic achievements, providing the foundation for broader regional stability.
Just this March, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi referred to the accords as “a model to be followed”.
But peace agreements require nurturing, not exploitation.
By treating Egypt as a potential dumping ground for unwanted populations rather than a valued partner in regional security, Israel risks alienating the Arab world’s most important country.
After the Doha attacks, Egypt could even reassume the chief negotiator role between Israel and Hamas.
Israel’s long-term interests demand abandoning fantasies of Palestinian transfer and recognising Egypt’s legitimate concerns.
The gas deal should proceed because it is mutually beneficial — not be used to coerce Cairo into adopting politically unsustainable policies.
The writer is a former member of Israel’s Knesset, an associate fellow at Chatham House and CEO of Ropes (Regional Organization for Peace, Economics and Security)
0 comments:
Publicar un comentario