The Populist Wave Hits Japan
The ruling LDP coalition lost its upper house majority, as inflation, taxes and immigration help the opposition.
By The Editorial Board
Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), on Sunday. Photo: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg NewsJapan has been a stable democracy for decades, but the forces of upheaval roiling nations worldwide arrived in Tokyo Bay on Sunday.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party coalition lost its longtime majority in the upper house of the Diet to a variety of opposition parties.
With nearly all results in Monday morning, the ruling coalition had 47 seats, three short of the 50 seats it needed to retain control of the upper chamber (not counting 75 seats that weren’t up for election).
The center-right LDP and Komeito coalition lost its lower-house majority last year.
The results are a rebuke to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has been in power less than a year.
The campaign was dominated by concern over rising prices, taxes, economic anxiety amid U.S. tariffs, and immigration.
Inflation has been 3% or higher for six months, and the price of rice has nearly doubled in a year.
Several opposition parties ran on cutting the 10% consumption tax to offset higher prices, which the LDP opposed.
A relatively new right-wing party, Sanseito, campaigned on a “Japanese first” agenda that exploited anxiety about the deluge of foreign tourists, especially Chinese citizens, and foreign buying of Japanese homes.
Sanseito looked set to win at least 11 seats, up from only one in the current upper house.
Mr. Ishiba acknowledged what he called the “harsh result.”
But he vowed on Sunday to remain as Prime Minister, even as senior LDP voices said he should step down after two straight election setbacks.
Mr. Ishiba stressed the importance of the trade talks with the Trump Administration, now at a critical stage, to avoid a 25% U.S tariff on Aug. 1.
The Trump tariffs are a major concern in Japan, where inflation and slow growth have become barriers to a better standard of living for the young.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party has ruled out a grand coalition with the LDP.
Mr. Ishiba’s coalition has managed to govern in the lower house by patching together ad hoc majorities by issue.
The main economic concern for the rest of the world is financing Japanese debt, which after decades of failed Keynesian spending sprees is now nearly 250% of GDP.
Also at stake is Mr. Ishiba’s plan to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP from 1% only a few years ago.
This is crucial to deterring China in the East and South China seas.
China’s new and fast-expanding blue-water navy is venturing farther than it ever has in waters long dominated by the U.S. Navy.
Japan is America’s most important ally in the Asia-Pacific, and arguably in the world, which makes Mr. Trump’s punitive tariffs all the more counterproductive for American interests and security.
That’s a mistake.
Japan may muddle through its current political challenges, but the U.S. can help by not treating it like an adversary by imposing punitive tariffs.
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