A TALE OF TWO ELECTIONS / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

A Tale of Two Elections

Recent votes in Australia and Canada signal a growing wariness toward the U.S.

By: Ronan Wordsworth

In the space of a week, two of the United States’ closest historical allies held elections over which the shadow of Washington loomed large. 

The votes in Canada and Australia, held on April 28 and May 3 respectively, had several similarities – but also notable differences. 

At the beginning of the year, the center-left parties in both countries were significantly trailing in the polls, leading many to conclude that conservative candidates would likely be victorious in the upcoming elections. 

What actually happened was a rapid turnaround for Canada’s Liberal Party and Australia’s Labor Party. 

Both now look set to continue their multilateralist and trade-friendly policies, which are at odds with much of the rhetoric coming from their close ally in Washington.

Surprise Result

The center-left parties were the incumbents in both elections. 

In Canada, Mark Carney became prime minister in March after being named Liberal Party leader following Justin Trudeau’s resignation after nearly a decade in office. 

In Australia, Anthony Albanese was running for reelection after serving one term with a slim majority government. 

Both leaders were expected to lose after a shaky 2024 for their parties. 

However, they pulled out surprising wins amid disappointing results for their conservative rivals. 

In both cases, the leader of the main center-right party, Pierre Poilievre in Canada and Peter Dutton in Australia, even lost his own parliamentary seat in the election. 

It’s important to understand the factors that led to such large swings in political fortune for the parties involved. 

One of the most important was what’s been happening in Washington. 

About a year ago, conservative voices in many Western countries were looking to emulate Donald Trump’s campaign messages, promising to overhaul government and cut wasteful spending, promoting “country first” initiatives, and vowing to limit immigration. 

However, over the past few months, conservative parties in Canada and Australia tried to distance themselves from Trumpian policies. 

For example, Dutton’s initial flagship policy was to restrict work-from-home arrangements for government employees – similar to Elon Musk’s call for federal workers in the U.S. to return to the office – but he reversed course after it became clear that it was an unpopular stance. 

It was an early sign that this brand of conservatism might fall flat outside the U.S.

The main domestic concerns for voters in both Canada and Australia were the cost of living, the economy, housing, and taxes, while on the foreign policy front, the main considerations were the U.S. and China. 

Canadians in particular felt increasingly wary of U.S. intentions amid Trump’s repeated references to the country as the “cherished 51st state of the USA.” 

Comments like these proved hugely unpopular, with polls suggesting that between 75 percent and over 90 percent of the population would never support joining the U.S. 

Trump also repeatedly referred to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor Trudeau,” another move that galvanized support for the Liberal Party.

In addition to these controversial comments, the U.S. has placed significant tariffs on Canadian industries. 

In February, Washington announced 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports, related to the smuggling of fentanyl crossing the border (despite fentanyl seizures in 2022-24 at the northern border totaling just 59 pounds, compared to 61,900 pounds at the southern border). 

Then, Trump said the tariffs would apply to goods not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, including steel, energy, potash, timber and automobiles. 

This policy could have a major impact on the Canadian economy, considering that the U.S. accounted for 75.9 percent of Canadian exports in 2024. 

Canada’s gross domestic product is projected to decline 2.28 percent year on year as a result of the tariffs.

Trump’s comments and the trade uncertainty gave a significant boost in the polls to the Liberal Party, which had grown unpopular under Trudeau. 

When Carney was chosen as the new Liberal Party leader, he distanced himself from Trudeau. 

A former economist and governor of the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of England, Carney was seen as a political outsider who was well-positioned to take on Trump in the economic arena. 

The Liberals won the election but fell short of a majority by two seats.

Australia was in a somewhat different position heading into the election earlier this month. 

Albanese had served one term and didn’t have the same baggage as Canada’s Liberals. 

The Labor Party was more consistent in its messaging over the past year, and while Trump-like rhetoric was effective during the U.S. election campaign, it has been less so since January.

While Canada had a significant trade surplus with the U.S., Australia has consistently had one of the highest trade deficits with the United States over the past decade, leaving Canberra in a good position to negotiate. 

However, though most Australian exports will be taxed at the blanket 10 percent rate, the U.S. will impose 25 percent tariffs on Australian processed steel and aluminum. 

(Processed steel and aluminum will be taxed at 25 percent.) 

This likely won’t have a huge economic impact, though the optics aren’t great considering that many Australians believe their country to be a loyal U.S. ally.

For Australian voters, the other major consideration was the relationship with China, Australia’s largest trade partner. 

Despite the two countries being engaged in a trade war since 2020, Beijing has remained vital to Australia’s economy. 

Trade tensions have thawed in recent months, so Canberra was reluctant to antagonize Beijing even in an election year. 

Albanese maintained that his policy toward China would be balanced and that Australia would not follow the U.S.’ lead by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. 

(The slump in the Australian stock market following Trump’s tariffs announcement, despite Australia getting off relatively easy, was an indicator of how critical China is to the Australian economy.)

The result for Albanese was a sizable victory in the election, the first back-to-back win for an Australian prime minister in over 20 years. 

The Labor Party even increased its seats in parliament from 77 seats to likely 94 seats out 150. 

The opposition coalition led by the center-right Liberal Party saw a record drop from 58 seats to 43. 

Attributing this result solely to the “Trump effect” would understate the frustration of Australian voters with the opposition’s platform, which changed several times over the past few months. 

However, it’s undeniable that Trump and U.S. policies played a role.

Notably, it’s not just the tariffs but also their uneven application that has been negatively received around the world. 

The Trump administration’s repeated introduction and pausing of different tariff rates have created economic uncertainty and affected stock markets in Canada, Australia and beyond. 

The publics in these countries have viewed this approach overwhelmingly negatively. 

According to a recent opinion poll, Australians’ trust in the U.S. to act responsibly in the world is at an all-time low, with 64 percent of respondents saying they hold “not very much” trust or no trust “at all” in the U.S. 

Meanwhile, 81 percent of respondents disapprove of using tariffs to pressure other countries.

What This Means

The incumbent governments of both countries were very much in favor of Western alliances, including NATO, the Five Eyes and AUKUS. 

Following their victories, they are now looking to increase defense ties with other allies to reduce reliance on Washington, but this will not be an easy task for either.

Canada has turned to Europe. 

Carney spoke with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer earlier this month, and they agreed to strengthen defense and commercial ties. 

Carney also made his first overseas trip (to Paris) after assuming the prime ministership in March. 

He met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week and agreed to expand trade relations. 

In March, Canada signed a $4 billion agreement with Australia to develop an over-the-horizon radar system to help protect the country’s northern regions and support Canada’s NORAD commitments. 

Australia was previously in talks on selling the system to the United States.

For Australia, the U.S. will remain vital to its long-term defense. 

Through the AUKUS program, the two are developing (along with the U.K.) next-generation nuclear-powered submarines, set to be delivered to Canberra by 2032. 

Prior to the election, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles met with U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and announced that Canberra had completed its first payment of $500 million (out of a total $3 billion) toward U.S. shipbuilding facilities. 

The money will support the expansion of Virginia-class submarine production facilities ahead of the first submarine transfers.

On China, however, the U.S. stands largely alone in its attempt to isolate Beijing. 

While the conservative parties in Canada and Australia pushed for a tougher stance on China, the incumbent parties remained committed to the status quo. 

Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said the government remained determined to increase Australia’s share of exports to China. 

He also emphasized that Canberra would reject U.S. demands to reduce economic and trade ties with Beijing. 

Australian exports to China are nearly 10 times the value of exports to the U.S., a figure that’s likely to increase as tariffs take effect. 

Ahead of talks with the EU trade commissioner on a free trade deal this week, the minister also said Europe and Australia would show the world that “protectionism is not the way to go.”

Ottawa, meanwhile, has maintained a “firm but measured” approach to China, which is Canada’s second-largest trade partner behind the U.S. 

In March, Carney said China does not share Canada’s values on trade. 

However, it was reported last week that China has become the top customer for Canadian oil shipped via the Trans Mountain pipeline, surpassing the U.S. 

The development comes amid China’s search for alternatives to Russian oil and increased tensions between Ottawa and Washington.

There’s one more key takeaway from the elections. 

While there’s a perception (certainly in Europe) that support for the political extremes is increasing, the middle ground is still dominant, as least in some countries. 

Polarizing policies seemed more popular in some countries in the months leading up to Trump’s inauguration, but more recent elections have paved a path for centrist candidates to win out. 

This could be an indicator of how upcoming elections in Europe might swing.

While the two elections took place under different circumstances, they could indicate broader political trends in the Western world. 

They signaled a rejection of Trump-style populism and reaffirmed support for centrist, pro-alliance, and economically pragmatic governance. 

While domestic considerations played a key role, Washington’s looming presence had a significant impact on both electorates. 

As a result, close allies of the U.S. are reinforcing their own international ties, diversifying their economic partnerships and subtly asserting a more independent foreign policy posture.