The outsider otaku
Japan’s new prime minister is his own party’s sternest critic
This could make it harder for Ishiba Shigeru to govern effectively
ISHIBA SHIGERU, Japan’s new prime minister, knows what his colleagues think of him.
“I have undoubtedly hurt many people’s feelings, caused unpleasant experiences and made many suffer,” he said apologetically in his final speech during the race for the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Throughout his 38 years in parliament, Mr Ishiba has been a gadfly.
That outspokenness endeared him to voters, but made him an outsider within the LDP.
His first four leadership bids failed. Someone like him could win only if the LDP faced a major “roadblock” and “divine will” intervened, Mr Ishiba wrote in a book published this summer.
Divine will or not, Mr Ishiba triumphed on his fifth attempt last week, and on October 1st he became Japan’s prime minister.
His selection does not herald a drastic change of trajectory in Japan’s foreign or economic policies. But the gadfly may struggle to govern.
That would leave Japan less capable of meeting the myriad challenges it faces at home and abroad.
Mr Ishiba’s fate will depend largely on the LDP’s showing in snap elections for the lower house on October 27th.
Mr Ishiba’s surprise win reflects the sense of crisis inside the LDP, which has ruled Japan with only two brief interruptions since 1955.
A recent scandal over the misuse of political funds has dragged the party’s approval ratings down.
Though it is not yet in danger of losing power, many in the LDP worry about losing swathes of seats.
By choosing Mr Ishiba, the LDP opted for its most popular figure, hoping that a change of leadership style will mollify an angry public.
His victory also illustrates the fear that many felt about Takaichi Sanae, a hard-right nationalist whom Mr Ishiba edged out in a second-round run-off.
Mr Ishiba defies easy categorisation “because he’s so heterodoxical on the issues”, says Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight, a political-risk consultancy.
He entered politics after the death of his father, a long-serving LDP politician, in 1981.
His mentor was Tanaka Kakuei, a powerful LDP leader who championed the country’s poorer parts.
Hailing from Tottori, a sand-dune-strewn prefecture on the northern coast of Japan’s main island, Mr Ishiba inherited Tanaka’s commitment to overlooked regions, as well as his emphasis on door-to-door campaigning.
He calls himself a “conservative liberal”.
The new prime minister has also used his personal obsessions to help build his popular appeal.
Like many of his compatriots, he is a train aficionado and loves ramen (he made headlines for eating 12 bowls in a day).
He once appeared in public in the costume of Majin Buu, a character from Dragon Ball, a popular manga series.
The character he has played throughout his own career has been consistent.
“He’s the party’s critic,” says Gerald Curtis of Columbia University.
In the early 1990s he left the LDP, helping bring about its first electoral loss and earning himself a reputation as a traitor.
After returning, he emerged as the most outspoken detractor of Abe Shinzo, Japan’s longest-serving leader, whom he accused of stifling debate.
He believes a politician’s job is to “speak the truth with courage and sincerity”.
His own policy positions are hard to pin down, however.
A former minister of regional revitalisation and of agriculture, Mr Ishiba frames his economic agenda around a vague desire to elevate Japan’s greying, depopulating countryside.
On social issues, he has shown a liberal streak.
He supports letting married couples keep separate surnames—a proxy for broader battles over sexism and family life.
A self-proclaimed defence otaku (obsessive), Mr Ishiba is a former defence minister and an avid collector of model planes and warships.
He has long bristled at subordination to America, arguing for Japan to take on a bigger security role and create a more equal alliance.
Although Mr Ishiba favours strengthening Japan’s armed forces to counter China, he also places great importance on maintaining dialogue.
He is clear-eyed about Japan’s history of imperial aggression, and supports better relations with South Korea, its former colony.
Yet he has also advocated some provocative ideas that worry officials in Washington, as well as his own bureaucrats.
Most notably, he has called for creating an “Asian NATO”, to link America’s various bilateral alliances in the region into a collective one.
He has also suggested revising the agreement that governs how American military forces operate in Japan.
The issue is a “classic Pandora’s box”, says Michael Green, a former American official.
As prime minister Mr Ishiba will face an uncomfortable choice.
He can continue to pursue the provocative approach that won him public favour, but risk losing the support of fellow party members.
Or he can bow to the realities of governing, but risk losing the public.
Some initial steps suggest that he will aim for pragmatism.
Kishida Fumio, the outgoing prime minister, backed Mr Ishiba over the hard-right Ms Takaichi, in part to ensure that his diplomatic legacy remains intact.
“We will inherit the entire foreign and security policy from the Kishida administration,” says Nagashima Akihisa, a veteran lawmaker appointed as a national-security aide to Mr Ishiba.
Yet the prime minister still has his preoccupations: during his first press conference he defended his ideas about the alliance with America.
The LDP’s right wing has been hostile to him: Ms Takaichi rejected the olive branch of a senior party post under the new leader.
He has few loyal allies inside the party.
He will have to navigate the upcoming lower-house elections, build ties with a new American president, and then face upper-house elections next summer.
Many in Japan’s political circles already suspect that another LDP leadership struggle will soon follow.
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