IRAQ IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF THE ISRAEL-IRAN WAR / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

Iraq in the Crosshairs of the Israel-Iran War

The conflict between Israel and Iran is spreading to Iraq.

By: Kamran Bokhari

After its premier proxy Hezbollah suffered unprecedented losses in the war with Israel, it is time to reevaluate the state of Iran’s disproportionate influence in the Middle East. 

Continuing to project power along the region’s northern rim will become challenging for Tehran. 

The issue isn’t just Lebanon but also Syria – which is why Iraq will become even more critical to Iran, a country that is well beyond the limits of its power.

Last week, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken each spoke to Iraq's prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, about Iranian efforts to use Iraqi territory to mount a strike on Israel. 

Their message, in so many words, was clear: If Iran uses Iraq to launch an attack on Israel, Israel is liable to attack Iraq on its territory. 

These conversations come amid reports that Iran is planning a “strong and complex” response to Israel’s recent attack on Iranian soil – for which Iraq will be a key element.

History shows that major military threats to Iran have largely emanated from the west. 

Alexander the Great conquered the Persian Achaemenid Empire from this route in the 3rd century B.C. 

In the 7th century, the Persian Sasanid Empire was gravely wounded by the Byzantine Empire, which was based in modern-day Turkey but came down through Iraq. 

In the 16th century, the Safavid Empire similarly fought the Ottomans along this path. 

And a little over a year after the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iraq invaded Iran on its western flank leading to a devastating eight-year war. 

This explains why Iraq has been so fundamental to the Islamic Republic’s national security strategy.

To that end, Iran has leveraged its ideological (Islamist) and sectarian (Shiite) bona fides to pursue imperial ambitions in the Arab world – even if much of its pursuit was opportunistic. 

The 1991 Gulf War, in which a U.S.-led coalition weakened the Iraqi regime, gave Iran the chance it needed to begin the process of turning Iraq from a strategic liability into a strategic asset. 

Thus, it began to support the Shiite majority and the Kurdish minority against the Baathist regime. 

By the time Washington invaded Iraq again in 2003, Iran was well positioned to become the biggest beneficiary of U.S. regime-change efforts. 

The eight-year U.S. occupation, during which Iraq fell into the Iranian orbit, was a boon to Iranian regional influence. 

The U.S. withdrawal in 2011, such as it was, allowed Tehran to consolidate its control over Iraq. 

Having created Hezbollah in the 1980s and forged closer ties to Syria in the 1990s, Iraq was the final piece of the puzzle that gave Iran uninterrupted influence stretching across to the Mediterranean Sea. 

The outbreak of the Syrian civil war and the 2014 seizure of Mosul by the Islamic State allowed Tehran to wield this influence at will.

The defeat of the Syrian rebels in late 2016 and the 2018 destruction of the Islamic State, then, made a confrontation with Israel inevitable. 

Israel was monitoring how Iran, in conjunction with Hezbollah, had established a presence on its northern flank, especially in Syria. 

Thus by 2017, the Israel Defense Forces had established a cadence of periodic airstrikes on facilities and supply lines of the Quds Force, the overseas operations arm of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 

IDF strikes largely focused on Syria and were designed to prevent Iran from threatening Israel in the Golan region.

Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attacks has further disrupted Iran’s regional strategy. 

Tehran now has to focus on rebuilding Hezbollah and at a time when it cannot rely on its erstwhile ally Syria, which has no interest in involving itself in the war. 

Iran has no choice, then, but to make sure it can maintain its grip over Iraq. 

This is especially the case since Iran has no answer to Israeli attacks on its assets in Lebanon and Syria. 

Iraqi airspace has become an avenue through which Israel can conduct airstrikes on Iran. 

Now, Iran hopes to use Iraqi soil to launch missiles at Israel.

If the war escalates and spreads to Iraq, Tehran’s entire western sphere of influence will become a battlespace. 

The fighting will likely loosen Iran’s grip on power in both places and leave it vulnerable to countries such as Turkey, which would like to expand its geopolitical footprint in Syria and Iraq, after decades of being blocked by Tehran.