THE NEW ARC OF CRISIS IN SOUTHERN EURASIA / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

The New Arc of Crisis in Southern Eurasia

A belt of countries from South Asia to the Middle East is in various stages of meltdown.

By: Kamran Bokhari

Strategic analysis usually entails an in-depth examination of a specific area or issue, but sometimes it is necessary to zoom out and take a higher-altitude view. 

The present moment is one of those times. 

Over roughly the past two decades, a combustible situation has developed and spread across southern Eurasia, in an area that former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski once called an “arc of crisis.” 

Due to a confluence of domestic and regional conflicts, an increasing number of states forming a near contiguous belt are in different stages of meltdown. 

The new arc of crisis will probably persist and even spread in the years to come. 

Myanmar

Myanmar's military spokesperson said on Aug. 5 that the country’s junta had lost communications with senior officers at one of its 14 regional command centers. 

The admission came two days after rebels from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army announced that they had taken over the armed forces’ northeastern regional command. 

Several other anti-junta ethnic groups have taken up arms as well against the Myanmar military along the Chinese, Thai and Indian borders. 

Considering the junta’s mounting territorial losses, there is a growing risk that Myanmar will implode.

Bangladesh

Also on Aug. 5, the prime minister of Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, resigned and fled to New Delhi amid a national uprising. 

The army is now in charge. 

For India, Bangladesh’s western neighbor, Hasina’s downfall after 15 years in power represents not just the loss of an allied government but also a potential long-term security nightmare, prompting India to deploy additional troops along their approximately 4,100-kilometer (2,550-mile) shared border. 

The nation’s revolt has seriously weakened Hasina’s Awami League party, which founded the country in 1971, and damaged its main rival, the Bangladesh National Party. 

With the country’s two mainstream parties diminished and ceding ground to an Islamist alliance led by Jamaat-e-Islami, the future of the country of 175 million is deeply uncertain.

Pakistan

In Pakistan, India’s western neighbor and historical rival, decades-old political and economic problems are coming to a head as well. 

The nation of 245 million people (the fifth most populous in the world) needs billions of dollars in financial assistance to avoid a default, but its usual patrons are disinclined to bail it out. 

Its military establishment has traditionally dominated the political system, but now it is facing unprecedented challenges from the most popular political party and the judiciary, while also battling two insurgencies and public unrest in the west of the country. 

These multiple crises are pushing the nuclear-armed state toward a systemic breakdown, endangering security in the world’s most densely populated region.

Afghanistan

In Afghanistan, three years after they seized control amid the U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban are still consolidating power. 

However, despite their struggles transitioning from insurgent movement to governing entity, the Taliban are exploiting the opportunity presented by Pakistan’s crisis. 

Specifically, they are supporting the Pakistani Taliban rebel movement, which is progressing toward establishing a sister emirate in northwestern Pakistan’s Pashtun-majority areas. 

As a result, Islamabad and its former proxy, now ensconced in Kabul, are hurtling toward conflict.

Iran

Just as Pakistan’s northwest is linked to the Taliban movement, its southwestern Baloch-majority region is connected with the Baloch unrest and insurgency across the border in Iran. 

Both countries’ rebels seek sanctuary in the other’s territory. 

At a time when Iran is on the cusp of a historic political transition, its remote Sistan and Baluchistan province is a major challenge. 

More important, Tehran’s decades-long strategy of using proxies to expand its influence westward across the Arab world has embroiled it in a major conflict with Israel and, by extension, the United States.

Iraq

Pro-Iranian political factions and militias dominate Iraq, enabling Tehran to use its western neighbor to project power farther into the Middle East. 

A major node in the Iranian proxy network – which stretches from Iran’s western frontier to the eastern Mediterranean – Iraq has served as an important thoroughfare for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to consolidate its operational capability in the Levant. 

Iraqi militias could also act as force multipliers in Iran’s escalating conflict with Israel.

Syria

Eight years after it survived a civil war, in great part due to massive ground assistance from militias mobilized by Tehran, the Assad regime is essentially a vassal state of Iran. 

Holding Syria is critical for Iran to maintain a contiguous arc of influence from its borders to the eastern Mediterranean. 

It is also a key component in Iran’s efforts to strategically encircle Israel. 

In the longer term, Syria, together with Iraq, is crucial for the Iranians to block the Turks, who seek to play a greater role in the Arab world in the future.

Lebanon

As the home of Tehran’s premier regional proxy, Hezbollah, Lebanon is a major outpost in Iran’s strategic plans for the region. 

Its proximity to Israel augments Iran’s ability to threaten the Israelis, and Hezbollah will likely play a key role in Iran’s anticipated retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a Hamas leader inside the Iranian capital. 

That said, Israel has the military capability to do serious damage not only to Hezbollah but also to Lebanon, which is in the midst of a serious political-economic crisis.

Yemen

The Houthis emerged as the dominant faction in the Yemeni civil war, which has been raging since the early days of the Arab Spring uprising and intensified in 2015 with Saudi Arabia’s intervention. 

The war provided Iran with what is arguably its most significant foothold in the Arab world. 

Together with the Iranian arc of influence across the northern rim of the Middle East, Yemen, located on the southern border of Saudi Arabia and at the intersection of the Arabian and Red seas, completes Iran’s encirclement of the Arab world. 

The decision by the Houthis – in coordination with their Iranian patrons – to disrupt commercial vessels attempting to traverse the Suez Canal (while also targeting Israel) means that Yemen will be a key battlespace for years to come.

The Eurasian arc of instability runs through the Middle East and South Asia, but it can spill over into the South Caucasus, Central Asia and Southeast Asia. 

Far from a peripheral matter, it represents a serious and immediate threat to Russian and Chinese interests and is something the United States will have to deal with for the foreseeable future.