BEIJING´S NERVOUS RESOLVE AMID THIRD PLENUM / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

Beijing’s Nervous Resolve Amid Third Plenum

The stakes are high for the country's top brass.

By: Victoria Herczegh

China’s leadership is holding its third plenary session in Beijing this week, one of the most important political meetings of the year. 

It’s organized by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, roughly once every five years, to plan out the country’s long-term social and economic policies. 

This year’s plenum will be critical, as several developments have demonstrated that Beijing is increasingly wary of how Chinese society is handling the country's protracted economic slump and turning to harsh measures to try to control the situation.

In late June, the State Council, China’s Cabinet, approved a revision to the Emergency Response Law, which outlines how the government should deal with emergency situations like natural disasters, public health crises and public security threats. 

According to the amendments, local governments are instructed to “guide news media organizations and support them in reporting and control of discussions,” while the press is responsible for reporting on emergencies in a “timely, accurate, objective and fair manner.” 

The changes will affect both Chinese and foreign journalists. 

While the State Council says the revisions are meant to protect journalists’ legitimate rights, many believe it will lead to more restrictions on the press, especially in their abilities to attain and report on interviews with average Chinese residents.

Though they will officially take effect on Nov. 1, there are reports that authorities have already tried to make use of the changes. 

Chinese journalists have stated that in a number of cases, local authorities prevented victims of natural disasters from speaking to the media, sometimes offering monetary compensation for their cooperation. 

The central leadership seems to be pressuring local governments to keep any incidents under wraps, and if any unfavorable information is leaked, they are forced to immediately communicate that the situation is being handled. 

Hence the recent string of reports on extreme weather conditions – namely, floods and droughts – in Chinese media that all looked nearly identical and lacked any personal accounts from those affected. 

This contrasts reporting from previous years in which victims and their families were often given an opportunity to speak extensively on their experiences.

For foreign reporters, the new restrictions shouldn’t come as a surprise. 

Reporting in China has always been challenging for journalists from abroad, especially those from the United States and Western Europe. 

Their work became even more unpredictable during the pandemic, with several incidents of reporters being followed or detained even for trying to report on topics that had nothing to do with the CCP or politics. 

In places deemed sensitive by the government, including regions where ethnic minorities reside like Xinjiang and Tibet, foreign journalists have simply been banned. 

However, until recently, Chinese journalists were given relative freedom to report, and media outlets generally prioritized “letting the people talk.”  course, there were some limitations relating to politically sensitive issues, but interviews with locals during a natural disaster or an accident used to be an essential and expected part of daily news reporting.

With the recent changes to the Emergency Response Law, this is no longer the case: The central government no longer seems to trust either reporters or society in general to decide what should be included in national news coverage, and is even encouraging local governments to “guide” media organizations, sometimes using financial incentives, to ensure reporting is what it sees as “fair and objective.” 

Though Beijing’s concern is likely not limited to natural disasters, China has had several weather-related emergencies since late spring. 

And given Beijing's insufficient support for local governments, it’s possible that they’re failing to manage these cases in a manner that the central government deems acceptable. 

With these changes, what the State Council really wanted to ensure was that no leaks came out about protests or mass discontent among the population, especially around the time of the third plenum.

The central government has also imposed other measures to make sure the event runs smoothly. 

Several high-profile activists including journalist Gao Yu, political commentator Zha Jianguo and human rights lawyer Pu Zhiqiang have been placed under house arrest or urged to leave the capital on the week of the event. 

Internet censors are also working closely with the police to eliminate any content seen as critical of the government. 

These measures are part of the country’s “stability maintenance” system, which targets individuals the authorities see as potential agitators ahead of significant meetings and politically sensitive events. 

They appear to be stricter and more extensive than usual this year. 

During prior plenums, such operations were generally limited to the location of the event itself, while this year, according to various reports, even petitioners in provinces far away from the capital have been detained and questioned about their “activities in connection with the event.”

It's clear that the Chinese leadership is taking extensive measures to prevent any material that could disrupt peace and order before, during and after the plenum. 

Given the nature and extent of the restrictions, it’s not only concerned about societal morale but also about potential reactions to announcements made at the closed-door meeting. 

In a recent speech delivered in front of the country’s top business leaders, Premier Li Qiang advocated that “unreasonable systems and mechanisms” need to be reformed. 

This further indicates that Beijing is aware of the gravity of the structural problems in the economy and wants to make considerable changes.

The question is: Did President Xi Jinping and his Cabinet wait too long to make these changes, and more important, does it have the resources to impose them? 

In recent weeks, Xi conducted inspections of various provincial capitals and regions to identify priorities for future government policies – a common practice ahead of a plenum. 

The four priority areas he identified were: technological self-reliance, high-quality development, social stability and greater integration of minorities. 

These highly ambitious aims will be impossible to achieve as the all-important real estate sector appears on the edge of collapse, foreign investors flee the country and local governments struggle to support themselves amid insufficient support from Beijing. 

The need to simultaneously focus on several highly problematic sectors will make it extremely difficult for the government to come up with effective solutions. 

And as the final day of the plenum approaches on Thursday, it's critical for Xi to seem fully confident in his reform agenda – whether or not that is actually the case.