WHAT THE JUNE 2 ELECTIONS SAY ABOUT MEXICO / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

What the June 2 Elections Say About Mexico

Results suggest the country is growing more dynamic and responsive to voters. 

By: Allison Fedirka

“The most boring election in Mexican history.” 

That’s how a prominent Mexican political activist described the country’s June 2 elections. 

Judging by the U.S. media reaction, however, the elections were anything but. 

Nearly 20,000 political offices were up for grabs, and there was extensive coverage of electoral violence and corruption in the lead-up to the vote. 

And, of course, the two leading candidates were women, so it was certain that Mexico would elect its first-ever female president. 

Other Latin American countries followed the events in Mexico closely, given its prominent role in the region, so the media fanfare throughout the Americas is reason enough to reflect on the political atmosphere in Mexico.

That the election was “boring” isn’t entirely without merit. 

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory was all but presumptive. 

Though the size of her projected lead varied from one polling agency to another, Sheinbaum consistently outperformed her nearest competitor, Xochitl Galvez, by about 15 points for the past six months.

However, the composition of the opposition parties and their candidates points to a dynamic moment in Mexican politics. 

One party, the PRI, dominated Mexican politics for much of the 20th century. 

Its main political rival was PAN, created in 1939. 

The PRI lost power in the 2000 presidential election to PAN candidate Vicente Fox. 

For the next 20 years, the office passed between these two parties. 

But then Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a member of the PRD-offshoot party known as Morena, won the presidency in 2018, signaling that Mexico may not be an absolute two-party state. 

(Sheinbaum is also a member of Morena.) 

The results from June 2 have only reinforced as much. 

The leading opposition candidate, Galvez, represented an alliance of Mexico’s three legacy parties (the aforementioned PRI, PAN and PRD) that reflects new lines of interest being drawn across the country. 

Moreover, presidential candidate Jorge Alvarez Maynez of the Citizens’ Movement party received 10 percent of the popular vote without any affiliation to another party. 

His modest performance suggests the nascent emergence of yet another political force in the country.

Also interesting is how public concern over reliable election results has begun to influence electoral practices. 

Unlike in the United States, where exit polls and preliminary results are disseminated on a rolling basis well before the entire country finishes voting, Mexico’s electoral administrator, the INE, does not release results until after all the polling stations in the country have closed. 

Anyone who closely follows politics in the country can quote the election-day timeline like clockwork: Polls close at 6 p.m., initial estimates come out at 8 p.m., initial victory is declared around 10 p.m. 

Political parties, aware of the concerns this process raises, have responded in kind. 

Pro-Morena political analysts noted that the presence of foreign observers should validate results and assuage concerns of election fraud – perhaps to hedge against accusations of malfeasance, which their opposition counterparts accused Morena of long before June 2. 

And though Galvez has vowed to contest the results, they are extremely unlikely to be overturned.

Those results themselves have raised questions in some circles over how Sheinbaum will govern. 

It’s widely known that she is a political protege of Lopez Obrador, and there are concerns that he will lead from behind the scenes. 

That may seem like a silly concern; Sheinbaum has worked her way up the political ranks to become president, and people who do that tend not to do so only to defer to others. 

However, appearances matter in politics and can contribute strongly to the perception of legitimacy around a leader. 

Being seen as an extension of the previous president would undermine the new leader’s power.

Institutionally, the new government will enjoy stronger political support across the country than the previous administration. 

The governing Morena party won the governorship in 23 of 31 states as well as Mexico City. 

The party and its alliance members are poised to hold a majority in both the upper and lower houses of parliament. 

The exact number of seats per party is still being calculated, but the governing coalition stands to win a minimum of 346 seats in the lower house – well above the 334 seats necessary for a supermajority – and is projected to win anywhere from 76 to 88 seats in the upper house. (It needs 85 for a supermajority.) 

If it wins a supermajority in both houses, the government will have enough influence to change the constitution, if it so chooses.

 

Impressive as they are, Morena’s gains raise an existential question for Mexico. 

Some of the party’s more philosophical supporters argue that the divide between northern and southern Mexico is disappearing.

 

The argument suggests that government-backed projects like the Dos Bocas refinery and Mayan Train project have laid the groundwork for further development in the south that would put the historically poorer regions closer to the north. 

Even if that were true, it would take longer than a single six-year presidential term, but the possibility of changes of that magnitude being underway isn’t something to ignore because it would fundamentally change how Mexico can operate as a country and, by extension, how it interacts with the rest of the world.

That raises the obvious question of how the new government will affect North America, if at all. 

Some believe that it risks alienating the United States. 

But Sheinbaum has indicated that she understands that the U.S.-Mexican relationship is a marriage where divorce is not an option. 

Many of her key advisers in international affairs have strong backgrounds in trade, have worked in international organizations like the United Nations, and have strong affiliations with moderate U.S. think tanks, all of which suggest an inclination toward or compatibility with working with the U.S.

While it may not change much in the United Stattes, Sheinbaum’s administration may be more effective in Central America. 

Migration, for example, remains just as big a political issue in Mexico as it is in the U.S., albeit for different reasons. 

There is a strong need and political will to alleviate the underlying pressures that lead to Central American migration.

The Mexican political system appears to be growing more dynamic and responsive to new electoral concerns and voices throughout the population. 

And the new government finds itself in a position where it may be able to lay the groundwork for dramatically reshaping Mexico. 

We can’t say whether it will succeed but can say it won’t be boring.