FEWER MIGRANTS ARE CROSSING AMERICA´S SOUTHERN BORDER / THE ECONOMIST

A migration merry-go-round

Fewer migrants are crossing America’s southern border

Joe Biden has Mexico to thank—for now

Afew statistics regularly released by government agencies set the hearts of America’s political establishment aflutter. 

Monthly inflation figures are eagerly awaited by Democrats who want to demonstrate that Bidenomics is helping the middle class, and by Republicans howling that it is a failed socialist experiment. 

Jobs figures have much the same effect. 

Lately, another measure has joined that list: monthly “encounters” of migrants at America’s southern border.

Figures released on May 15th show that, after a peak in December of 302,000 apprehensions, the most ever, encounters at the border tumbled by 42% to roughly 180,000 and have stayed relatively flat since January (see chart). 

That is still high compared with pre-pandemic figures, but it is a marked improvement, and one that President Joe Biden will be thankful for in an election year.

The totals hide big changes in migrant flows. 

For the first time since the 1990s the area around San Diego, California, had more encounters than any other part of the border, overtaking the region south of Tucson, Arizona. 

This is due, in part, to a surge in the number of Ecuadoreans journeying north as gang violence has worsened in their country. 

They are crossing into southern California in greater numbers than anywhere else. 

San Diego’s role as the new centre of irregular migration may also be a product of increased enforcement in Texas, where Greg Abbott, the Republican governor, has fought the federal government to place extra deterrents along the border. 

These measures (and much tough talk) do not appear to be stopping migrants from crossing altogether. 

Many are simply trekking westward instead.

Seasonal migration trends do not explain the drop, either. 

Over the past decade these have broken down. 

Back when those crossing the border were mostly Mexicans seeking work, there was a pattern to their movements. 

Encounters would stay low in the winter around the holidays, increase in the spring, when the weather was still relatively cool in the sweltering south-west, and drop back again in the summer, explains Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh of the Migration Policy Institute, a think-tank. 

Now, more families and migrants from places beyond Mexico are crossing, and their movements are less predictable.

Instead, two reasons for the decline stand out. 

First, migration is becoming ever more responsive to politics, thanks to the speed at which information is shared on messaging apps and social media. 

While record numbers of migrants were attempting to cross the border in December, the Senate was trying to craft a bill to beef up border security. 

Among migrants, rumours of a crackdown were flying. 

That may have caused more people to cross to try to get ahead of new policies.

Something similar happened in 2023 when the administration lifted Title 42, a public-health measure that made it easy to remove migrants to Mexico. 

“The Biden administration was telegraphing that it was going to heavily crack down at the border, and so migrants began crossing in very large numbers,” says Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council, an advocacy group. 

The rapid pace at which migrants get and share information may also be why Mr Biden has kept quiet after the failure of the border bill about any plans he may have to try to stem crossings using executive action.

Limbolands

Second, and most important, Mexico has stepped up its own migration enforcement over the past few months to keep order at its northern frontier. 

Migrants are stopped short of Mexico’s border with the United States or at checkpoints throughout the country and bused south to cities near Guatemala. 

But Mexico does not have the resources to carry out a mass-deportation scheme. 

And the “decompression” policy may have unintended consequences. 

Migrants may turn in greater numbers to smugglers to evade the authorities, and they could attempt more dangerous routes through the desert, or via boats along the Pacific coast.

Mexico’s busing scheme may not be sustainable, however. 

Mexican officials have pledged to help keep encounters at the United States’ southern border below 4,000 a day. 

But that will depend on whether the country has the money to keep up enforcement.

Panamanian data suggest that the number of migrants trekking north through the treacherous Darién Gap is not slowing down—so tens of thousands of migrants may end up in limbo in Mexico. 

They do not want to stay there. 

Three-quarters of migrants interviewed in the Panamanian jungle said that if they were delayed on the way to their destination (which, for most, is the United States) they would simply wait and proceed later.

All this means that Mr Biden still has an immigration problem, despite the fall in encounters. 

Some 12% of registered voters polled by YouGov and The Economist say that immigration is the most important issue facing the country, second only to inflation. 

Senate Democrats may yet make an attempt to revive the prematurely deceased border bill. 

But Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the chamber, says Mr Biden’s only choice is to “do everything he can do on his own”.

If the president does decide to take executive action, which will surely face legal challenges, it may not come until after Mexico’s elections on June 2nd. 

Like many of the migrants in Mexico, American policy remains stuck in limbo.