IN SYRIA, BATTLE LINES ARE BLURRING / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

In Syria, Battle Lines Are Blurring

Iranian proxies’ reinforcement of the Assad regime may be more than Israel can bear.

By: Caroline D. Rose

On Oct. 5, multiple suicide drones struck a military academy graduation in Homs, a city deep within Syrian regime-controlled territory. 

The attack killed 89 people and wounded some 290, making it the deadliest event in the Syrian civil war since 2019. 

Though there has been no claim of responsibility, the attack likely originated from opposition-held areas in the country’s northwest. 

The Assad regime has responded with a severe, indiscriminate bombing campaign.

The regime’s allies and adversaries took note of its retaliation, but the eruption of violence on Oct. 7 between Hamas and Israel in and around the Gaza Strip soon captured international attention. 

The Syrian regime has taken advantage, increasing and prolonging its bombardment of opposition-held Idlib and Aleppo. 

But although events in Syria have slipped from the front pages, the lines between the Syrian regime’s crackdown, Israel-Hamas clashes and Iran-backed militias’ support for Hamas and the Assad regime are blurring, increasing the risk of a wider war.

Syria’s Crackdown

On the surface, President Bashar Assad’s regime is the most stable it has been in years. 

It controls approximately 70 percent of Syrian territory and is steadily normalizing relations with neighboring countries. 

But the regime has failed to regain control in the north and east, and already desperate economic conditions are deteriorating. 

Signs of political dissent are starting to show.

 

Prior to the Oct. 5 attack in Homs, the regime, aided by Russian warplanes, was already conducting periodic strikes in opposition-held areas. 

It has targeted Turkey-backed militias as well as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaida-linked group that commandeered large swaths of terrain in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. 

Adding to the regime’s concerns is the renewed threat of a Turkish ground offensive in the north, on top of ongoing Turkish drone strikes targeting Kurdish fighters in Hasakah and Qamishli in the northeast and the Turkish government’s desire to repatriate millions of Syrian refugees. 

With the war in Ukraine diverting Russian military support, the Assad regime is eager to demonstrate that it is still capable of imposing its will.

Conditions in the war-torn south aren’t making things easier. 

In Sweida and Daraa provinces, citizens fed up with skyrocketing prices, an 80 percent drop in the currency’s value and scant public services are increasingly demonstrating against the regime. 

Their anger has been building for a long time – and in fact, Daraa city is where the failed revolution began in 2011 – but the regime added fuel to the fire in August when it boosted public sector wages and pensions. 

To the protesters, the regime was padding the pockets of government cronies instead of disseminating wealth among struggling provinces and villages. 

In Sweida, protesters even raided the offices of the ruling Baath Party – a bold move considering the regime’s history of crackdowns.

Iran’s Proxy Network

To meet the expanding security challenges amid diminished Russian military assistance, the Assad regime has been able to count on the support of Iran-backed militias and Hezbollah. 

These forces have aided the Syrian regime’s 4th Armored Division and intelligence apparatus, conducting patrols, protecting military headquarters, recruiting new members and deterring the formation of mass opposition movements. 

(They are also involved in the production and trafficking of the amphetamine drug Captagon along the Lebanese and Jordanian borders.) 

While the assistance of Iranian proxies strengthens the Syrian regime, it has also blurred the line between the Syrian civil war and the ongoing Iran-Israel rivalry in the Middle East. 

This increased collaboration has alarmed Israel and Jordan. 

Israel has frequently conducted airstrikes along its border with Syria, targeting suspected Hezbollah and Iranian depots, shipments and personnel. 

Jordan has carried out fewer airstrikes but has voiced concern about the increased presence of Iran-backed actors, citing their role in the Captagon trade.

The outbreak of violence in Gaza and Israel’s potential ground invasion could further transform southern Syria. 

Concerned that Iran could encourage Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies to attack it, Israel is pre-emptively attacking suspected Iranian arms shipments in southern Syria and Lebanon. 

On Oct. 12, a day before Iran’s foreign minister was due to arrive in Syria, Israeli forces bombed airports in Aleppo and Damascus, temporarily knocking both out of service. 

Israel also reinforced its troop presence in the north near Lebanon and Syria and has exchanged cross-border fire with Iran-backed militias.

Hamas’ attack on Israel and the ensuing instability have enabled the Syrian regime to bombard opposition-held areas in the northwest without too much international condemnation. 

In the south, Russian support and especially the growing involvement of Iran-backed militias have supported the regime’s efforts to reconsolidate its influence. 

But as Israel’s military campaign against Hamas and Iranian proxies intensifies, the actions of Iran and its partners in Syria will come under greater scrutiny. 

The very involvement of Iran’s proxies raises the risk that several of the region’s conflicts could blend together.