EUROPE´S BIGGEST CHALLENGES AHEAD / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

Europe’s Biggest Challenges Ahead

The Israel-Hamas conflict has complicated some of the Continent’s deepest divides.

By: Antonia Colibasanu

A little over a week ago, I was set to depart for a conference in Brussels when news broke about Hamas’ attack on Israel. 

The unfolding conflict introduced another layer of complexity to the conference, which was supposed to focus on the challenges facing the Eastern Mediterranean and Southern Europe over the past year stemming from the war in Ukraine. 

It also made my journey to Brussels more complicated – as I believe will be the case for all travelers to major Western European capitals in the months ahead.

I arrived in Brussels on Oct. 12, just hours after Hamas called on its supporters to observe Oct. 13 as a “day of rage.” 

In a rush to prepare for my speech at the conference, I didn’t leave my hotel and confined myself to the Brussels bubble, occupied by fellow analysts, lobbyists and policymakers. 

The day after the conference, I finally left the hotel, and the city seemed empty. 

The area I was staying in was home not only to buildings of major European institutions but also to one of the largest mosques in Brussels. 

Walking around the city, I noticed a Palestinian flag hanging on a building and a heavier security presence than I had seen on my previous visits. 

The friend I was supposed to meet asked if we could convene at another location, farther from the European Parliament. 

When I got there, she asked if I knew about the terrorist attack in France that had happened just minutes earlier. 

It was then that I realized the reason for the relative lack of congestion in Brussels at the time: People in the city, particularly those working at EU buildings, were worried about a terrorist attack.

After the EU publicly expressed its support for Israel, flyers condemning the move and supporting the Palestinians were plastered on walls around EU buildings. 

They were quickly removed, but concerns were growing.

By the end of the day, France announced that it would increase its state of alert to the highest level. 

Major museums and tourist attractions in Paris were closed the next day. 

While fears of terrorist attacks in European cities aren’t new – Brussels saw a major attack in 2016, and Paris in 2015 – it seems what’s happening in the Middle East has given such concerns more validity. 

My friend and I tried to go about our day more or less as usual, but we too were worried. 

(Little did we know that a Tunisian man claiming to be a member of Islamic State would kill two people in Brussels a few days later.)

I walked back to my hotel through Ixelles, a neighborhood with a large community of people with African origins. 

Hearing loud chatter about the Middle East and the fate of Palestine, it was clear to me that residents were not indifferent to what was happening in the Middle East. 

Later that evening, when walking to dinner, I passed by a group of young people – judging by their French accents, likely international students or workers from North Africa – having a strong disagreement over Israel’s actions. 

At the restaurant, a group of young Italians were debating the same topic. 

Clearly, many in Europe are preoccupied with the crisis.

There are a few reasons for this, each pertaining to the three dimensions that define European geopolitics: security, economics and politics. 

The situation in the Middle East has the most obvious impact on security. 

France announced on Oct. 14 that it would deploy 7,000 soldiers around the country to beef up security. 

Its Ministry of Interior said it has already addressed 189 incidents of antisemitism since Oct. 12 when Hamas issued its call to supporters of the Palestinians. 

After the United States, France has the world’s largest Jewish community outside of Israel, as well as Europe’s largest Muslim population. 

The possibility that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could spill over into its streets is a major cause for concern among French authorities.

While France is likely the most vulnerable place in Europe to a potential spillover, other countries on the Continent will also have to address the problem.

Since Oct. 13, protests in support of the Palestinian cause have taken place in London, Madrid, Barcelona, Brussels, Rome, Amsterdam, Luxembourg City, Bern, Dusseldorf and others. 

Vienna and Berlin saw pro-Israeli protests over the weekend, while police in the German capital broke up a protest on Oct. 15 that had been banned by authorities at short notice. 

The German interior minister confirmed on Oct. 16 that security services were instructed to consider using all legal options to expel Hamas supporters from Germany.

While officials focus publicly on the need to stamp out antisemitic and anti-Israel actions and statements, the concerns over violence point to much deeper friction relating to Europe’s socio-economic problems. 

In addition to supporting the Palestinian cause, the people participating in pro-Palestinian demonstrations are also doing so out of self-interest. 

They believe they have been oppressed not by the state of Israel but by the governments and the elites who control much of the wealth and opportunities where they live. 

This is a common view among poorer classes in European societies, but the feeling of being unjustly treated grows even bigger when race or religion plays a role.

Over the past decade, class-based polarization in Europe has been growing. 

This is largely due to the economic crisis but has been magnified by the large influx of migrants over the past several years. 

Between 2014 and 2016, Europe saw a record surge of refugees fleeing wars in Syria and elsewhere, primarily Muslim countries in Africa. 

Over the past six months, the Continent has seen another wave of migrants, most fleeing poor socio-economic conditions, which were exacerbated by disruptions in global food supplies as a result of the war in Ukraine.

In fact, the Hamas attack happened just as EU member states were discussing a new deal to tackle the refugee influx. 

Under the agreement, nations like Italy, Greece and Spain – which are among the top migrant recipients in Europe – could speed up asylum procedures and request immediate assistance from their EU peers, including financial aid and relocations. 

In addition, Germany announced on Oct. 11 that it intends to make it easier and faster to deport unsuccessful asylum-seekers, particularly those with a criminal record, by shortening notice periods and making it easier for authorities to conduct searches, including for documents at an asylum-seeker's home. 

These moves are all responses to the recent wave of migration, which will grow only bigger with a new conflict in the Middle East.

The measures also highlight concerns by various European governments over established Muslim communities in their countries. 

According to a poll conducted by Pew Research, Muslims accounted for about 4.9 percent of the total European population in 2016. 

Countries with the largest Muslim populations were France, Germany, the U.K., Italy, the Netherlands and Spain – all of which have seen protests and stepped up security measures in recent days. 

The migration issue will exacerbate these concerns, considering that many migrants come from Muslim-majority countries.

There’s also a political dimension to fears over what the Israel-Hamas conflict could mean for Europe. 

The countries mentioned above have all seen populist movements growing in popularity over the past decade. 

Most populist parties (particularly those on the right but also many on the left) have been highly critical of migration into the EU from Muslim-majority countries. 

According to Pew polling from 2019, supporters of populist parties have developed negative attitudes toward Muslims in their countries. 

This issue, and its security implications, will likely play a large role in political campaigns ahead of European Parliament elections in 2024, as well as elections in member states.

Meanwhile, EU members are also in talks on how to modify the bloc's budget to tackle growing problems, including the post-pandemic economic recovery and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

EU leaders will sit down to review the budget in December, but the European Commission has already suggested that funding for Ukraine needs to increase. 

In 2021, the commission established the European Peace Facility, a project funded outside the EU budget aimed at continuing to supply the Ukrainian military with arms. Initially worth 5.6 billion euros ($5.9 billion), the commission this year proposed increasing the fund by another 20 billion euros over the next four years. 

It also wants to secure an additional 50 billion euros in macroeconomic assistance for Ukraine. 

It’s likely the EU will also consider new funds for the Middle East as the situation there intensifies.

However, adoption of these plans will depend on the priorities of EU member states in the coming months. 

With populist and mainstream parties disagreeing over migration policies and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vision for the world, Europe is in for an intense campaign season. 

And as the conflict in the Middle East escalates and the United States heads into its own election season, it seems that divisions in Europe will only worsen.