COLOMBIA AND MEXICO PUSH A NEW DRUG CONTROL STRATEGY / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

Colombia and Mexico Push a New Drug Control Strategy

Their collaboration could force the U.S. to adjust or risk losing influence.

By: Allison Fedirka

Mexico and Colombia are jointly adjusting their anti-drug policy, with potential implications for the regional power balance and relations with the United States. 

For a long time, an emphasis on security and order has dominated the countries’ policies toward drug trafficking. 

However, a new focus on social welfare and economic development is gaining prominence in both capitals and in the wider region, fueled by a shared sense that the previous approach has failed. 

Mexico and Colombia also hope that by targeting the root causes of the drug problem, they can revitalize their economies, which are still staggering from the pandemic. 

In the bigger picture, the leaders hope to position their countries for a more volatile global environment, where countries like theirs in the Global South can exert greater influence within and beyond their borders.

A Demilitarized Approach

Earlier this month, Colombia hosted a conference for Latin American and Caribbean countries dedicated to this new anti-drug framework. 

It emphasized the need to refocus on tackling major transnational crime groups and implement demand-reducing social welfare policies. 

Gustavo Petro, the Colombian president, and Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said the region’s drug problem indicated a health and social crisis. 

Continuing down the path of a militarized counternarcotics approach, Petro warned, would lead to more failed states and perhaps the death of democracy in the region.

For Mexico and Colombia, the matter is existential. 

After years of rising production, Colombia is now the world’s leading coca producer. 

Mexican cartels dominate the cocaine supply chain from start to finish, even overseeing and directly participating in production inside of Colombia. 

The illicit proceeds from the drug trade enable the cartels to capture political power in remote communities where the central government’s writ is limited – a common feature in both countries. 

Petro and Lopez Obrador hope that by promoting the development of the legal economy, they can reassert the state’s authority in these communities and eventually excise the cartels. 

In addition to economic development, Mexico and Colombia want to shift more responsibility for addressing the drug problem from the military to civilian institutions. 

In many Latin American countries, the armed forces are heavily involved in domestic security and fighting organized crime. 

The U.S. often trains, exchanges intelligence and conducts operations with these militaries and other law enforcement bodies to reduce the northward drug flow. 

Enforcement will remain a priority, but Petro and Lopez Obrador hope that by elevating the role of government bodies tasked with public health, education, etc., they can create more areas for cross-border collaboration in the drug war. 

For example, Mexico’s Agency for International Development Cooperation is working with the Colombian government to implement development-focused counternarcotics programs like Sembrando Vida (Sowing Life) and Jovenes Construyendo el Futuro (Youth Building the Future).

Having reached consensus on a new approach, the next challenge for Mexico and Colombia is implementation. 

For starters, both governments lack sufficient financing to truly transform life in affected communities. 

The drug trade exists because it is so profitable, and legitimate business – especially in rural communities – is rarely as lucrative. 

The twin plagues of official corruption and mismanagement will also complicate implementation.

 

In the past, domestic opposition has also hindered attempts to move away from the militarized approach to drugs. 

However, this time the Colombian government appears to have bipartisan support. 

For example, Petro’s predecessor and political opposite, Ivan Duque, said recently that the “war on drugs” had failed and called for a public health approach to reduce demand. 

He also said the U.S. and European Union should open their agriculture markets to give Colombian farmers viable alternatives to coca cultivation. 

With elections scheduled for June 2024, Mexican politics are more erratic, but Colombia at least has come to see counternarcotics policy not as a political issue but as a national emergency.

The Biggest Consumer

Any changes in counternarcotics strategy in Latin America and the Caribbean will inevitably affect the United States. 

For one thing, Washington’s regional policy is tailored to the law and order approach. 

Most U.S. collaboration with the countries of the region in the fight against drug trafficking occurs through its law enforcement bodies. 

Moreover, the U.S. typically prefers to work with Mexico and Colombia separately, via bilateral arrangements such as the Merida Initiative or Plan Colombia.

But the drug trade knows no borders. 

Mexico’s cartels dominate global cocaine distribution and directly control the coca supply chain in Colombia. 

And as the Western Hemisphere’s largest producers of fentanyl and cocaine, respectively, Mexico and Colombia are strong candidates to lead a regional anti-drug initiative. 

By combining their voices, they stand a better chance of convincing the U.S. to accommodate their health- and development-centric strategy. 

A joint approach may also boost them in confronting the U.S. over its contributions to the drug problem, namely through the supply of guns and the highest drug consumption in the world.

 

Success could have broader implications for bilateral and regional relations. 

Historically, Bogota has been Washington’s preferred partner in the region because of its strategic location and ability to counterbalance Mexico. 

But U.S. and Colombian interests are not as closely aligned as they once were, particularly with regard to the political crisis in Venezuela, where Washington shares neither Bogota’s urgency nor its strategy. 

At the same time, Mexico is offering cooperation that is more attuned to Colombia’s immediate needs. 

A strong Mexican-Colombian alliance, should one emerge, would shake the region and could lead to the formation of a coalition in the Caribbean capable of challenging U.S. interests.

Mexico and Colombia do not want to stop collaborating with the U.S. against drug trafficking, and in fact U.S. public and private capital would be invaluable aids for their economic development plans. 

Rather, they want to force Washington to engage on their terms. 

Bogota and Mexico City need to promote development in marginalized areas of their countries – for political and socio-economic reasons but also to exploit the opportunities presented by the global supply chain realignment. 

In reality, this is more important for both countries. 

Effective cooperation to crush the drug trade – while too important to ignore – is a means to an end.