SOUTH AFRICA´S DIFFICULT BALANCING ACT / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

South Africa’s Difficult Balancing Act

The war in Ukraine has complicated the country’s relations with rival powers.

By: Ronan Wordsworth

Though South Africa has remained outwardly neutral on Russia’s war in Ukraine, its recent actions have increasingly frustrated Western countries. 

Ahead of a BRICS summit in Pretoria in August and amid U.S. concerns over the country's close military ties to Moscow, a host of South African ministers have been sent on diplomatic missions to G-7 countries to try to smooth the waters. 

The effort is part of a balancing act that will grow increasingly difficult to maintain as the country is pushed, from both sides, to take a firmer stance.

Foreign Policy

Since gaining independence in 1994, South Africa has consistently been one of the continent’s most developed economies. 

It has benefited from maintaining strong trade relations with major powers, including the U.S., China and Europe, while also keeping close ties to Russia, a legacy of the Soviet Union’s support for South Africa through the apartheid struggle in the 1970s and 1980s. 

It’s a resource-rich nation, home to vast reserves of gold, platinum group metals, coal, iron ore and diamonds. 

It also accounts for over 60 percent of the world’s mined platinum, a metal that's essential in the manufacturing of catalytic converters, electronics, chemicals, communications cables and medical devices. 

Its role in this critical industry has helped South Africa establish itself as a vital partner for the West, exporting around 80 percent of platinum supplies to the U.S., Japan, the U.K. and Germany.

But the war in Ukraine has complicated the country’s relations with some of its long-standing partners. 

Both Kyiv and Moscow have spent significant resources lobbying for support from various African countries, some of which have helped Russia evade Western sanctions. 

The U.S. and the EU have continuously pressed African countries at international forums to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

South Africa is seen as vital to this effort, as it has significant sway over southern Africa’s global outlook.

Officially, South Africa remains neutral, but there have been reports that cargo ships and planes containing weapons and ammunition have departed from South African ports and airports for Russia. 

Last month, the country led an African peace delegation to both Kyiv and Moscow. 

President Cyril Ramaphosa was the most prominent African leader on the mission calling for a cease-fire and deescalation of the conflict, stressing that soaring grain, fertilizer and energy prices resulting from the war had an impact on African nations. 

The presidents of both Ukraine and Russia, however, effectively shot down a peace plan proposed by the delegation.

Meanwhile, South Africa has also adopted a renewed focus on the BRICS – a grouping of fast-growing economies that also includes Brazil, Russia, India and China – as the country looks to expand trade and defense ties with Moscow and Beijing. 

In February, South Africa, Russia and China held joint naval exercises, drawing criticism from Washington. 

In economic terms, South Africa is by far the smallest member of the BRICS, but it sees the grouping as a prestigious international forum through which it can exert influence on global issues as the sole African member.

Internal Challenges

Domestically, South Africa is also going through a turbulent period. 

Ramaphosa’s African National Congress party has been in power since independence. 

It began as an activist group aimed at overthrowing the apartheid government in the 1970s and 1980s. 

The Soviet Union supported its anti-government efforts, while the U.S. had a mixed response, wary that the government’s downfall could usher in a communist regime. 

Russia has maintained a close relationship to the party ever since, seen by the ANC as a strong political ally that supports its desire to remain in power.

South Africa is facing several internal economic and political issues ahead of elections next year. 

Major protests have erupted amid the country’s faltering economy, repeated power outages and soaring unemployment. Supporters of ex-President Jacob Zuma and his ally Julius Malema have organized anti-government demonstrations – some of which have led to violence and damaged property, further deteriorating an already volatile security situation. 

The country’s second-largest party, the Democratic Alliance, has pushed the government to denounce Russia, while the third-largest party, the Economic Freedom Fighters, is supportive of Moscow and critical of the West.

Although the ANC will likely remain the largest party following the upcoming vote, it likely will have to form a coalition. 

The party has lost local elections in many cities, something that would have been almost unthinkable a decade ago. 

It’s been rocked by allegations of corruption involving prominent ministers following the release of the Zondo report commissioned by Zuma. 

Ramaphosa has himself faced serious allegations of hiding significant sums of cash at his farm.

Middle Ground

But despite its historical political ties to Moscow, South Africa has significant trade relations with the West. 

It has benefited immensely from the U.S.’ African Growth and Opportunity Act, adopted under the Clinton administration in 2000, which offers favorable trade conditions to participants with some requirements on the rule of law, elimination of barriers to U.S. trade and investment, and anti-corruption and anti-poverty measures. 

Under AGOA, South Africa exported up to $2.7 billion worth of goods to the U.S. in 2021. 

Now, however, members of the U.S. Congress have raised the possibility of ending South Africa’s participation in AGOA over its ties to Russia.

Indeed, the economic rationale of supporting Moscow is diminishing, as Russia’s economy flounders and Western countries pressure governments around the world to help isolate the Russian economy. 

The pressure will be particularly hard to withstand for the South African government considering its dependence on trade with the West. 

Europe accounts for 21.5 percent of South Africa’s exports, the U.K. for 7.1 percent and the U.S. for 9.7 percent. 

They account for 77 percent of foreign direct investment in the country. 

Russia, meanwhile, accounts for less than 0.5 percent of South Africa’s exports.

A senior delegation of South African officials led by three Cabinet members was recently sent on a diplomatic tour of G-7 countries. 

High on the agenda on the U.S. visit was AGOA. 

Industry experts in the country believe that losing preferential access to the U.S. market would severely slow development of key industries such as automotive and agriculture. 

For its part, the U.S. does not want to criticize South Africa too harshly, as this could push the country into the Russian or Chinese orbit. 

The U.S. is also reliant on South African platinum and doesn’t want to give Russia another avenue to expand its gold and diamond dealings on the continent. 

Thus, it is in both parties’ interest to seek a form of reconciliation.

As a result of initial talks, the U.S. has softened its stance on South Africa. 

Putin has confirmed that he will not attend the BRICS summit in August, relieving Ramaphosa of having to decide whether to comply with an international arrest warrant for the Russian president. 

While some senior officials within the ANC still sympathize with the Russian regime, they have focused on mending ties with the West, at least in public.

South Africa is at a crossroads. It needs to reassess the impact its foreign policy will have on its domestic and regional outlook. 

While industry is demanding closer ties with the U.S. and a reaffirmation of Washington’s commitment to AGOA, other interests are remaining loyal to Russia’s anti-imperialist narrative. 

As frustrations grow on both sides, Ramaphosa’s government appears to be stepping back, in search of a middle ground.