EVERY TIME CHINA HAS BEEN UNITED, IT HAS DOMINATED / DER SPIEGEL

What the Future Might Hold for Asia

"Every Time China Has Been United, It Has Dominated"

China is upgrading its nuclear arsenal even as its relationship to the U.S. is deteriorating. George Yeo, the former foreign minister of Singapore, discusses the ongoing power struggle in the Pacific region.

Interview Conducted by Bernhard Zand in Singapore

Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu arriving in Singapore on June 1. Foto: How Hwee Young / EPA

DER SPIEGEL: Mr. Yeo, which of the many crises in the Asia-Pacific region do you consider to be the most concerning at the moment?

Yeo: The evolution of U.S.-China relations. China is on its way to becoming the world's biggest economy. 

It will be a comprehensive power and the United States feels threatened by it. 

It sees a threat to its global dominance and is trying everything to slow down China, and even to bring it down if possible. And the Chinese know that.

DER SPIEGEL: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, the Pacific Island nations – almost all countries in the region want to continue trading with China. 

Militarily, however, most of them are looking to cozy up to the United States.

Yeo: For almost all of us, the "China account" is growing. 

I don’t think anyone would want to reduce the China account, because that account is too important and too lucrative. 

But everyone wants to diversify, and we welcome other partners. 

To have the U.S. around is a good thing. 

But as I once said elsewhere, America's best position is to be over-the-horizon. 

When their ships come within visual range, then instead of benefiting from a U.S. presence, we become peripheral to a larger game. 

That is not to our advantage.

DER SPIEGEL: What about European ships? 

Would you like to see a greater European presence in the Indo-Pacific?

Yeo: I don’t think European ships matter much. 

If they come to this part of the world, it’s like an ornamental presence. 

They come, they go. 

We have parties. 

But no one seriously believes that the European powers are a significant military force in this region.

DER SPIEGEL: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns in some countries that they, too, could be threatened by a major nuclear power. 

Japan is arming and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has even spoken of a potential need for his country to develop its own nuclear weapons. 

Is he perhaps not the only one thinking along those lines?

Yeo: These are very major decisions for Japan and Korea. 

Japan is the victim of two atomic bombs, something that is seared in their collective memory. 

So, they won’t embark on such a path lightly. 

The very idea of South Korea becoming nuclear-armed would frighten Japan, because the historical animosity between Japan and Korea runs deep. 

The U.S. must manage this relationship very carefully, because standing up to the nuclear threat ...

DER SPIEGEL: ... also coming from North Korea ...

Yeo: … is how the U.S. justifies its presence in the region. 

Tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers are stationed in South Korea and Japan. 

If such countries go nuclear, there is less of a reason for the U.S. to be here in the region. 

But America wants to stay. 

So that is a card best used by being flashed but not being played. 

Because if it is played – would that be in the interests of the United States? 

I don't think so. 

Would it be in Japan's interest? 

Certainly not. 

Would it help South Korea against North Korea? 

I don't think so either.

Chinese DF-41 ballistic missiles during a military parade on Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 2019. Foto: Mark Schiefelbein / AP

DER SPIEGEL: Meanwhile, China is upgrading its nuclear arsenal. 

It could soon have 1,000 or 1,500 warheads instead of around 400.

Yeo: China's push towards nuclear weapons has to do with its need for a second-strike capability, i.e. the possibility of responding to a nuclear attack with a counter-strike. 

The Chinese know that the U.S. wants to deny them this ability. 

The U.S., on the other hand, senses that without its nuclear deterrent capability, China is likely to prevail in a conventional war over Taiwan. 

So they want to be able to threaten China with a nuclear attack.

DER SPIEGEL: A constellation reminiscent of the Cold War.

Yeo: That's one of the reasons why there is so much interest in the South China Sea. 

Not so much because of the freedom of navigation, which has never been an issue, but because of submarine warfare. 

China’s view is: Let's assume our opponent can locate every one of our ballistic-armed nuclear submarines. 

Well, then I'll increase my warhead count from 500 to 1,000, maybe even to 1,500. 

Because even if the other side destroys 95 percent of them, I'll still have some to hit back with. 

Meanwhile, I will build tunnels under my cities – just as China did in the 1960s and 1970s, when Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev threatened China. 

That explains China's response.

DER SPIEGEL: It is, perhaps, a surprising analogy, but Beijing and Moscow were actually enemies in the Cold War.

Yeo: China has always ruled out the first use of nuclear weapons. 

From Beijing's point of view, this makes sense because China is an extremely strong conventional military power. 

But when threatened, it must be able to threaten back.

DER SPIEGEL: How worried are you about this situation?

Yeo: These developments are concerning in terms of the titanic struggle between the U.S. and China. 

They don't affect us directly, because I don't think China has any intention of threatening any of us with nuclear weapons. 

China doesn't need to do so because its conventional military force is so much bigger than ours. 

It can also use trade as a powerful instrument in their statecraft.

DER SPIEGEL: Could it be that the strategic order in the Pacific will develop in a similar way to that in the Atlantic, with mutual security alliances like NATO and the former Warsaw Pact?

Yeo: I don't think so, because the historical conditions in East Asia are different. 

Never since the fall of Rome did Europe ever have a single power so dominant that it could overwhelm everybody else. 

In the case of East Asia, every time China has been united, it has dominated. 

We are seeing the repeat of an old pattern. 

China's dominance is primarily economic and, to a lesser extent, political. 

It was never military in the way that military means were used in Europe. 

There have been horrible civil wars within China, millions of Chinese have killed each other when fighting for power.

Taiwanese warships during a naval exercise in April 2023. Foto: HANDOUT / AFP

DER SPIEGEL: But not beyond China's borders?

Yeo: Traditionally, the Chinese thinking was: Yes, you can win a war. 

You can kill people and occupy territories. 

But then what? 

This is a historical wisdom which is told and retold in the storybooks. 

In the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms,” one of the four classic novels, there is an episode in which the great strategist Zhuge Liang subdued a "southern barbarian." 

It turned out to be very difficult. 

He was arrested, he then promised to behave and was released – and went to war again. 

This was repeated several times. 

"Why don't you have him killed?" Zhuge Liang was asked. 

His answer: Then someone else will take over. 

"Why don't you occupy his territory?" 

Answer: Because that's when the problems really begin. 

Eventually, the recalcitrant barbarian was tamed and there was peace.

DER SPIEGEL: Europe felt secure for a long time. 

Most of its conflicts, it seemed, had been settled and the demons of the past had been banished. 

Then, Russia invaded Ukraine. 

In Asia, though, many of the historical conflicts have not been resolved to this day.

Yeo: Japan has found it difficult to fully acknowledge the history of the Pacific War. 

China says: You may want to forget, but we will not forget, and we will not allow the world to forget. 

The Chinese have opened war museums and made archives and historical documents accessible. 

Instead of merely complaining about problematic Japanese school textbooks and history books, it decided to open up the archives to the world, including to Japanese scholars. 

There will be no forgetting in Asia.

Museum visitors in Beijing in front of an exhibit showing war atrocities committed during the Japanese occupation of China from 1931 to 1945. Foto: FREDERIC J. BROWN / AFP

DER SPIEGEL: Doesn't that confirm concerns that the security situation in Asia has long been underestimated? 

That the historical undercurrents have only receded into the background – but are in fact still very influential?

Yeo: These currents are there, but they may not be as consequential as in Europe because of China’s overwhelming size. 

Even though Japan is now rearming and will double its defense budget – can Japan become as threatening to China as it was 100 years ago? 

I don't think so. 

Can Korea become a threat to Japan because of all those historical memories? 

Not unless China allows it. 

And fortunately, it is not in China’s interest to allow the region to be destabilized. 

In all different scenarios, you have a dominant China, which would ultimately tip the scales.

DER SPIEGEL: The Taiwan conflict is also a historical legacy. 

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory. 

But former U.S. President Donald Trump's last secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has openly called for recognizing Taiwan as an independent state. 

What would happen if Taiwan officially declared its independence?

Yeo: Taiwan could only do that if the U.S. supported it. 

But Washington cannot do that because that means war. 

Its relations with Beijing are based on the one-China policy. 

China can accept that America does not encourage unification between China and Taiwan. 

But preventing unification would mean war. 

So there is a red line in between the two positions. 

Both sides need to talk to avoid accidents. 

Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu won't be meeting his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin at the Shangri-La Dialogue here in Singapore, because the U.S. has declined to remove the sanctions it imposed upon him. 

To the Chinese, this is insulting. 

In China’s mind, direct talks are not an end in themselves. 

They are not a favor granted by the U.S. to China.

DER SPIEGEL: Europe is worried about a possible re-election of Trump. 

What would such a re-election mean for Asia?

Yeo: Trump can be outrageous and completely inconsistent. 

But a friend of mine who is not fond of Trump once told me that Trump’s core is very stable. 

He listed four elements: Trump is against uncontrolled immigration. 

He is against free trade. 

He is pro-business. 

And he is against war. 

I don't think Trump’s core has changed. 

After Joe Biden's election, many thought America's politics would be fundamentally realigned. 

In truth, Biden has deepened some of Trump's tendencies. 

And on the last of those four points about Trump, I think U.S. Democrats may be more prone to using military force than Republicans.

George Yeo with DER SPIEGEL correspondent Bernhard Zand during their interview at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore. Foto: Ore Huiying / DER SPIEGEL

DER SPIEGEL: Just like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, you say that we are now living in a "multipolar" world. 

Isn't the new world order actually much more chaotic and unpredictable than this term suggests?

Yeo: Not necessarily. 

The world clearly moved away from being bipolar, became temporarily unipolar and is now multipolar. 

In order to gain stability and positive energy, we also need structure in this multipolar world. 

Two poles will always be close to each other: Europe and America. 

Europe will remain a weak pole because it needs America to defend itself. 

There is also a deep civilizational relationship. 

So, these two will have to stay close together. 

And then there is a Chinese pole that will be strong and will have a strong peripheral influence. 

Russia will be close to China for as long as there is no peace agreement in Ukraine, which may be for decades. 

But in the overall architecture of this new world, America must become the first among equals. 

Only the U.S., because of its history and culture, has the connectivity, the "software” for this role.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you think the U.S. and other powers will allow the emergence of such a world order?

Yeo: Right now, the U.S. is still resisting multipolarity, and therefore can’t play that role. 

But once America accepts that the world is multipolar, it should grow into that role. 

Europe wants America to be first among equals. 

Singapore wants that, too. 

And in the end, China will accept it, even if it won’t say so. 

A former brigadier general, George Yeo, born in 1954, was the foreign minister of Singapore from 2004 to 2011. He received his education in Singapore, Britain and the U.S. On Friday, June 2, Singapore plays host to the Shangri-La Dialogue, the Asian counterpart to the Munich Security Conference.