Barbarians at Democracy’s Gates
The conventional wisdom, particularly in liberal circles, is that the arc of history always bends toward peace, tolerance, equality, justice, and democracy. But recent political violence – not least the Capitol riot in the US – has made clear that there is no room for complacency.
Koichi Hamada
NEW HAVEN – The United States has a much higher crime rate than Japan.
While the US population is about 2.6 times larger, it recorded 17.2 times more murders in 2019 – 16,425 compared to 950.
Needless to say, Japanese tend to enjoy a sense of safety that undoubtedly contributes to our national happiness.
So, on July 8, 2022, when former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzō was assassinated at a campaign rally, our world was shaken.
With inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, financial markets will face a huge stress test in 2023.
While banking systems are more robust than they were in 2008, a real-estate slump could severely affect heavily leveraged private-equity firms, producing a systemic crisis.
But such violence and lawlessness are incompatible not only with Japanese society; they are anathema to any healthy democracy.
And it fits into a wider trend.
In January 2021, the US witnessed its own shocking act of political violence, when supporters of then-President Donald Trump – at Trump’s urging – stormed the US Capitol, in an effort to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden’s election victory the previous November.
There could be no more blatant attack on US democracy.
One might be tempted to dismiss the Capitol riot as a radical act by a relatively small group of extremists – a few thousand out of a population of 300 million.
It would be even easier to minimize Abe’s assassination.
After all, it was committed by a single gunman with a highly personal motivation: he blamed Abe, who had ties to the Unification Church, for his mother’s financial ruin.
His mother was a devout member of the Church, and she had continued to donate to it – donations that the gunman claims were forced – until the family went bankrupt.
But in both the US and Japan, the perpetrators of political violence have found sympathizers.
The US Capitol insurrectionists have a large base of support, as a significant share of US Republicans – even candidates in the recent midterm elections – still believe the “Big Lie” that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.
It is a short leap from holding that belief to cheering those who aim to “right” the imagined wrong.
Some American cultural narratives can also feed vigilantism.
The US Constitution’s Second Amendment guarantees “the right of the people to keep and bear arms,” because a “well-regulated militia” is “necessary to the security of a free state.”
This guarantee has not only been interpreted to prevent the introduction of reasonable gun-control laws; it has also nurtured the belief that taking up arms against the government is perfectly reasonable.
The ironic result is an assault on “the security of a free state.”
In Japan, there has also been sympathy for Tetsuya Yamagami, Abe’s assassin.
Yamagami’s family had, indeed, suffered profoundly, and no one should ever be compelled to donate to a cause.
There is also a cultural tie here.
One of the most popular Kabuki plays – Kanadehon Chūshingura (“Copybook of the Treasury of Loyal Retainers”) – depicts the story of 47 master-less samurai exacting their revenge on the man who had driven their master to suicide.
The samurai were executed for their vigilantism, though they come across as the heroes of the story.
To be sure, Yamagami’s act will be fairly and strictly judged under Japanese law; it must not bring down Japan’s political system.
And in the US, the recent midterm elections showed that the power of Trump and his Big Lie has been weakened significantly, with Trump-backed candidates performing far worse than expected.
As a result, while the Republicans won a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, it was the worst midterm election performance for a party not in control of the White House in a generation.
US democracy lives to fight another day.
But the fact that the US has narrowly escaped capture by would-be authoritarians does not mean the threat to democracy has passed.
Trump is planning his 2024 presidential bid, and there is no reason to think that, if he gains momentum again, the rest of the Republican Party will not fall back in line.
Although the congressional January 6 Committee, which was charged with investigating the Capitol riot, recommended that Trump and his allies be barred from holding office, Republican opposition means that the recommendation is unlikely to be heeded.
In any case, Trump has plenty of imitators within the party.
The conventional wisdom, particularly in liberal circles, is that the arc of history always bends toward peace, tolerance, equality, justice, and democracy.
But, as recent assaults on democracy have shown, there is no room for complacency.
Those acting in their own self-interest, or in the name of an unjust, bigoted, or otherwise dangerous cause, will always try to resist.
Progress must be driven by ideas, developed through political processes, and ultimately enshrined in institutions and policies.
Elections alone are not enough.
Even under fair election rules, voters may choose a leader who blocks or reverses progress – say, by pursuing a policy agenda that benefits one group at the expense of another.
From rolling back anti-discrimination protections to changing tax rules, elected leaders who are so inclined have no shortage of ways to perpetuate inequality.
Progress, in all its forms, must be nurtured through the relentless efforts of the people.
As Japan and the US have learned firsthand, acts of violence can shape politics.
But, if our democracies are to survive, such acts must not be allowed to do so in the ways their authors want.
Koichi Hamada, Professor Emeritus at Yale University, was a special adviser to former Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzō
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