ALGERIA AND MOROCCO: CAUGHT IN A LOSING BATTLE OVER REGIONAL DOMINANCE / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

Algeria and Morocco: Caught in a Losing Battle Over Regional Dominance

Both countries are fixated on each other, despite having more pressing issues to deal with.

By: Hilal Khashan

For more than a decade, Algeria and Morocco have been locked in a costly arms race. 

Their shared border has been closed since 1994, a consequence of tensions over an unresolved border dispute and the conflict over Western Sahara. 

They are long-standing rivals in the competition over leadership of North Africa, though neither is currently in a position to eclipse the other.

Origins of the Problem

The border dispute between the two countries goes back to France’s occupation of Algeria in 1830. 

Responding to Morocco’s support of rebellions against the occupation, France defeated the Moroccan army in the Battle of Isly in 1844. 

A year later, France coerced Morocco into signing the Lalla Maghnia Treaty, which led to France’s annexation of parts of the Moroccan border to its Algerian territories. 

The French deliberately did not demarcate swathes of desert land, claiming they were barren and uninhabited. In 1950, France annexed them to Algeria after discovering iron and manganese in Tindouf and Bechar. 

In 1957, France offered to return them to Morocco, if Rabat agreed to form a joint administration to exploit the newly discovered minerals. 

But Morocco’s King Mohammed V refused, preferring instead to wait until Algeria’s independence to negotiate their future. 

In 1961, Morocco signed an agreement with Algeria’s provisional government, which wanted to start talks to settle the land dispute as soon as Algeria won independence. 

When that happened, in 1962, King Mohammed V visited Algiers and met with Algerian President Ahmed Ben Bella, who emphasized his commitment to his country’s territorial integrity, which had already cost the Algerian people more than 1 million lives. 

Rabat responded by presenting a map of “Greater Morocco,” which included Western Sahara, Mauritania, parts of Mali and a quarter of Algeria. 

Algeria’s refusal to negotiate the border situation created an enduring atmosphere of distrust and hostility. 

The two countries fought to a stalemate in the 1963 Sand War, which left relations between them fractured to this day.

Costly Arms Race

For both Algeria and Morocco, military spending has taken precedence over economic development. 

Morocco’s military is among Africa’s best-equipped and most competent. 

In 2009, the country spent $2.3 billion on deals to purchase U.S.-made F-16 jets, trainer jets and attack helicopters, and to modernize its M1 Abrams main battle tank inventory. 

Several years ago, Morocco commissioned Harris Corp. to equip its F-16s with electronic warfare systems. 

In 2013, Francois Hollande, France's president at the time, signed a secret deal with King Mohammad VI to supply Morocco with two advanced Earth observation satellites for $670 million. 

Morocco also acquired from France Caesar 135 mm howitzers and MICA surface-to-air missiles. 

The deal prompted Algeria to improve its targeting capabilities by gaining access to the Russian Global Navigation Satellite System.

Last year, Morocco announced a five-year plan worth $20 billion to achieve regional military supremacy. 

The plan involved rivaling Algeria’s air capabilities and developing an indigenous arms industry. 

The Moroccan army administers two huge military sectors, one in the north near the Algerian border and another in the south near Western Sahara.

But despite Rabat’s recent defense push, Algeria still outspends Morocco. 

Morocco’s military spending between 2005 and 2015 totaled $48 billion compared to Algeria’s $58 billion. 

Since 2013, Algeria has spent more than $10 billion per year on defense, a 176 percent increase over 2004, despite budget cuts in other areas due to declining hydrocarbon revenue. 

In 2009, Algeria surpassed South Africa as the continent’s largest arms importer. 

Between 2013 and 2017, it purchased more than half of Africa’s arms imports, 60 percent of which came from Russia.

Algeria has used much of its hydrocarbon revenue, especially over the past decade, to boost its military arsenal, which far exceeds its actual needs. 

Between 2010 and 2019, Algeria acquired four updated Russian Kilo-class submarines to add to its two Soviet-era submarines, upgraded in the 1990s. 

In recent years, it commissioned several frigates and corvettes for its rapidly expanding navy. 

The Algerian air force has plans to withdraw from service its old MiG-25 and Su-24 jets and replace them with Su-34 and Su-35 jets and additional Su-30s. 

It may also be interested in acquiring Russia’s state-of-the-art Su-57.

Thus, despite Morocco’s efforts to tip the military balance of power in its favor, Algeria has an overall edge against its neighbor – a fact that Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has publicly boasted about in the past. 

The government in Algiers justifies its defense spending by arguing that the country faces enormous security challenges along its 4,300-mile (7,000-kilometer) border with seven, mostly unstable, countries. 

Though some activists took issue with the increase in spending at a time of financial hardship, most Algerians accepted it, citing fears over potential spillover from Libya’s conflict, the French military campaign against militant groups in Mali and Niger, and remnants of armed gangs operating in Algeria’s mountainous eastern provinces.

No Regional Dominance

In the 1990s, Algeria defeated Islamic groups in a bloody civil war, convincing the international community that it is a trusted partner in the war against terrorism. 

Its global image as a peace-loving nation paved the way for its procurement of military hardware from many countries, including nonlethal ordnance from the United States. 

That image also prompted Morocco to present itself as a dependable regional power. 

It rejoined the African Union after boycotting it for 33 years when the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, also known as Western Sahara, was admitted as a full member. 

In 2016, Morocco provided military equipment and troops to help Niger in its fight against Boko Haram. 

Morocco now has the 13th largest contingent of U.N. peacekeeping forces.

Both Morocco and Algeria have excellent international reputations – the former adopting a staunch pro-Western position and the latter adopting an independent foreign policy with good working relations with the major powers.

But they continue to scramble for regional dominance, believing that North Africa is undergoing a period of drastic change following the Arab uprisings. 

It’s uncertain whether Morocco will be able to achieve military supremacy, given Algeria’s determination to maintain its edge, but what is certain is that their arms race reduces the possibility of future cooperation and threatens to intensify regional instability. 

Morocco hopes that the protests in Algeria – which began in 2019 after its longtime president announced his candidacy for a fifth term – will destabilize the country, helping to usher in Morocco as the region’s new leader. 

It’s unlikely, however, that the Algerian army would ever let that happen.

They are caught in a seemingly never-ending rivalry. 

Instead of identifying a new framework to resolve or let go of their differences, they seem fixated on the past. 

Indeed, despite having more pressing issues to address like health care and education, they carry their grievances against each other like a ball and chain.