Moscow is trying to play all sides.
By Ekaterina Zolotova
Amid mounting tensions in the Persian Gulf and the Turkish incursion in northern Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying his best not to burn any bridges in the Middle East.
Last week, Putin visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and this week, he will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi.
So far, the Kremlin has managed to maintain good relations with all parties involved in the turmoil, but in order to continue to do so, it will need to enlist the help of some of Putin’s closest allies in the North Caucasus.
A Precarious Position
Needless to say, this puts Russia in a precarious position. It’s trying to play all sides, claiming to be partners with multiple countries that have conflicting interests.
Russia’s own interests in the Middle East are many, but chief among them is to maintain stability in the region, in large part so that the volatility doesn’t spread to Central Asia and the Caucasus – a critical area of concern for Russian security.
The North Caucasus is one of the most unstable regions in Russia. It has a diverse, multiethnic population and is highly dependent on financial support from Moscow. Without that support, the Kremlin would have a much harder time controlling this part of the country. The relative proximity of the Caucasus to the Middle East increases the risk that violent extremism will spread to Russian territory. Many of the Islamic State’s foreign fighters originate from the North Caucasus and Central Asian countries, which share a border with Russia.
With the Islamic State effectively defeated, some of these foreign fighters have already returned home. The recent Turkish airstrikes have also allowed several hundred IS supporters to escape from Kurdish-guarded camps in northern Syria, creating the risk that some could find their way into the Caucasus. Russia sees this as a serious national security threat. Speaking at the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Ashgabat on Oct. 11, Putin said he had doubts about the Turkish military’s ability to control prisons housing IS militants.
Russia, therefore, wants to have a say in how the situation in northern Syria and the Persian Gulf unfolds. It doesn’t want to be dragged into another military conflict, which would be expensive and unpopular and could jeopardize its relations with some of its partners in the region. Instead, it prefers to play the role of mediator – which requires a careful balancing act. In the Persian Gulf, Russia has cultivated ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, though the two countries are longstanding enemies and the Saudis have blamed the Iranians for last month’s attacks on Saudi oil facilities.
In the Syrian war, Russian support for Bashar Assad and Assad-backed forces has pitted it against Turkey, which has supported the government opposition. Though Russia and Turkey are historical rivals, Moscow doesn’t want to antagonize Ankara, and both have worked together to find a resolution to the conflict in Syria. Moscow therefore has to be careful not to rock the boat with either Damascus or Ankara. The Syrian Kurds have also asked Russia for help; Russian troops are currently patrolling parts of northern Syria to prevent clashes between the Turkish army and Kurdish forces.
Room to Maneuver
The Kremlin has successfully managed relations with all these parties by using leaders from the North Caucasus, including most notably Chechen chief Ramzan Kadyrov, to build ties throughout the Middle East. Kadyrov, who accompanied Putin to Saudi Arabia and the UAE last week, is an important ally for the Russian president. He has maintained control of Chechnya and ensured that the republic remains stable. In exchange, Kadyrov has secured substantial subsidies for Chechnya from the Kremlin. (Chechnya is among the top five most subsidized Russian regions.)
In recent years, Chechnya has also attracted investment from Arab donors. The UAE has invested $350 million there, funds that have supported projects like a five-star hotel in Grozny called The Local, a large shopping center, and the Akhmat Tower high-rise complex. Saudi Arabia has also invested in projects, including a sheep breeding program in the Chechen mountains. In fact, Chechnya is the only region in the North Caucasus that has been successful in attracting foreign investment, mostly because of Kadyrov’s links to Middle Eastern investors.
He has visited the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain many times over the course of his leadership and even met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during Putin’s visit last week. These personal ties are part of the Kremlin’s strategy to win over allies in the Middle East. So while Moscow continues to support Iran publicly, Kadyrov has worked to smooth things over with the Saudis – giving the Kremlin more room to maneuver throughout the region.
Russia could also lean on Chechen leaders to help maintain relations with opposing sides in the Syrian war. According to unconfirmed reports, Syrian Kurdish leaders have reached out to the Kremlin, asking Russia for help in their fight against Turkish forces in northern Syria. Moscow has reportedly agreed to transfer some special forces – more precisely, from the Chechen special forces – to the northeast.
Though unconfirmed, this scenario would make sense considering that the Chechens have historical grievances against Turkey. In the past, Kadyrov has accused Turkey of financing terrorists and luring tens of thousands of Chechens to Turkey during the Second Chechen War (about 70,000 Chechens live in Turkey today).
Russia has managed to involve itself in various conflicts in the region without jeopardizing its relations with key partners. It has done so by relying on the cooperation of its republics in the North Caucasus. It has positioned itself as a mediator in the Syrian war and the Persian Gulf crisis and will continue to maneuver as much as possible between opposing sides in these conflicts
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