China’s complacency is a sign of confidence, not weakness.
By Jacob L. Shapiro
After three months, the Hong Kong extradition protests of 2019 have become quotidian. The Monday morning question for China-watchers has not been whether a protest took place but how many people showed up or how violently clashed with the police or with one another. Was this going to be the Monday that the Chinese government might finally decide that enough was enough, and that the rule of law must be reinstated by force in the Special Administrative Region?
The Plateau
One June 9, more than 1 million people flooded the streets of Hong Kong to protest a controversial extradition bill that would have made it legal for convicted criminals in Hong Kong to be extradited to mainland China. The force of that protest came from its spontaneity; spontaneity means unpredictability, and unpredictability puts real pressure on political decision-makers to placate the masses before things get out of hand. The June 9 protests forced authorities to halt the bill – first temporarily, then indefinitely. But the protests of recent weekends haven’t forced government authorities to do much of anything.
That’s not a coincidence. It is immensely difficult for protest movements to sustain the intensity and magnitude necessary to drive real political change. When protests become a regular weekend activity, it usually means they have lost the momentum necessary to create political change. Consider the yellow vest protests in France that began late last year. The size and vitriol of the protests prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to ditch his planned fuel tax hike and call for a national dialogue to address the protesters’ demands. For weeks after Macron’s capitulation, the yellow vests continued to ransack Parisian businesses and burn cars in the streets – but they never again forced Macron's hand. Though some yellow vest protesters still turn out each weekend, their numbers have dwindled so much that Macron’s government is making another pass at the economic reforms that brought protesters to the streets in the first place.
Like the French protests, the unrest in Hong Kong has reached a plateau of ineffectuality. Yes, last weekend thousands of protesters took to the streets and clashed with police in Hong Kong again, despite the fact that Hong Kong authorities forbade any marches in the city and despite rumors that China was considering dispatching the People’s Liberation Army to the restive Special Administrative Region to quell the unrest. But these protests are orders of magnitude smaller than the June 9 demonstrations. As for the PLA, the source of those “rumors” is a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson who told a media briefing last Wednesday that the PLA would only intervene at the Hong Kong regional government’s request.
Mainland China’s government does not seem to feel compelled to intervene Tiananmen-style in Hong Kong. Spokespersons for China’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office gave a fairly bland press conference on Monday, repeating some platitudes about how bad the demonstrations are for Hong Kong and scolding foreign countries that have criticized China over the protests. That is remarkable on the face of it. One of the primary roles of the Chinese state is to maintain social harmony. A Chinese state that is unwilling or unable to ensure social harmony will not remain in power for very long. But this Chinese state is neither of those. This is a Chinese government that has elevated Xi Jinping to the de facto position of emperor-in-chief and is busily attempting to remake Uighurs in the image of the Han via “reeducation camps.” China is not intervening in Hong Kong because it chooses not to.
Three Rivers, Two Systems, One China
To understand why – and to understand Hong Kong in the first place – we need to examine a bit of Chinese history and geography.
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