War jitters in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran is blowing up ships in the Gulf, says America
How will the Trump administration respond?
THE BLACK-AND-WHITE video is grainy, but what it shows is clear, claims America. An Iranian patrol boat pulls up alongside a ship called the Kokuka Courageous. Iranian sailors, thought to be members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, then remove an unexploded limpet mine from the hull of the ship. The Kokuka Courageous and another ship, the Front Altair, had been crippled hours earlier in “unprovoked attacks” by Iran on June 13th, said Mike Pompeo, America’s secretary of state. Iran denied it was to blame. But hardliners on both sides risk escalating the conflict.
This is the second time in just over a month that tankers have been damaged in the Gulf. On May 12th four ships anchored off Fujairah, a port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), had holes blown in their hulls. A preliminary investigation suggests that they were damaged by limpet mines. America blamed Iran, which issued a denial. The latest explosions caused far more damage, forcing crews to abandon both ships as they were underway. It also sent the price of oil upwards. One-fifth of the world’s supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz, an important chokepoint for international shipping.
America last month dispatched an aircraft-carrier strike group to the region, citing the threat of Iran; then, in response to the attacks on ships, it also began deploying an extra 1,500 troops to bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq. America’s naval vessels will probably step up their patrols. “Ordinarily the fact that the US wasn’t directly targeted and there were no casualties would give Washington some breathing room to respond,” says Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think-tank. “However, because the free flow of energy is of such vital importance to the world economy, there is a need to show a determination to secure the straits while calming fears of a conflict.”
For an idea of how things could play out some are looking to the past. The so-called tanker war between Iraq and Iran in the 1980s ravaged shipping in the Gulf. Though most attacks were from the air, the Guards honed the use of mine-planting boats—similar to the vessel captured on video on June 13th. Eventually, and with reluctance, America agreed to reflag and escort Kuwaiti vessels through the area. When that did not work, American special forces, operating from special sea barges, were sent to hunt and destroy Iranian mine-layers. That culminated in Operation Praying Mantis: a major air and naval attack on Iranian ships and platforms in 1988.
A repeat of such dramatic moves remains unlikely, for now. Only a half-dozen tankers have been the target of attacks so far, compared with hundreds in the 1980s, and the damage has been limited. With more naval forces in the region, America should be able to keep an eye on suspect ships. Air and naval patrols, to monitor Iranian vessels and hoover up their communications, will have increased. That will make it harder for would-be attackers to approach tankers without being detected. Britain’s Royal Navy also has a frigate and four specialised mine-hunting units patrolling the region, but “we’re not going to be steamrollering into that area with grey ships,” says a well-placed source.
Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to American sanctions.
Some will see the strikes against ships in the area as a veiled warning of its readiness to make good on its threat. President Donald Trump said on June 14th that if Iran were to block the strait, “it’s not going to be closed for long.” (A study published in 2008 showed that if Iran were to mine the strait, it could take America “the better part of a month" to re-open it.) The Iranian government, for its part, issued a statement on June 13th saying, “The US and its regional allies must stop warmongering and put an end to mischievous plots as well as false flag operations in the region.”
Many hardliners in the Middle East would, indeed, like to see America go to war against Iran.
But the history of revolutionary Iran, including its threats to close the strait, mean that its government—or one of its factions—is the prime suspect. President Hassan Rouhani probably understands that attacking regional shipping would be to invite a Western military response. A day before the attacks he met Shinzo Abe, the prime minister of Japan, who tried to reduce tensions between America and Iran. But Mr Rouhani staked his legacy on a deal, signed in 2015, that loosened sanctions on Iran in exchange for limits on its nuclear programme. That seemed a good bet—until Mr Trump took office in America. Mr Trump’s decision to withdraw from the deal vindicated Iran’s hardliners, who have long argued that America is untrustworthy. Mr Rouhani’s popularity has plunged, and with it his control (always tenuous) over the Revolutionary Guards and other hawkish factions.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is decidedly in the latter camp. Though he gave Mr Rouhani space to negotiate the nuclear deal, his dismissive reaction to Mr Abe suggests that his patience has run out. (As it turned out, one of the ships hit in the latest attacks is operated by a Japanese company, Kokuka Sangyo.) Ideology aside, the Guards benefit from what they call the “resistance economy”. Two years ago Mr Rouhani was trying to reduce the group’s role in business. Now, with private firms sidelined, the Guards can step in as the contractor of last resort. Sanctions forced Total, the French energy giant, to pull out of a major offshore gas project; the Guards hope to take its place. The nuclear deal was a threat to the Guards’ interests, and the group has no desire to see it restored.
Both America and Iran seem to be calibrating their response to each other’s actions. With his economy sinking under the weight of American sanctions, Mr Rouhani has warned that Iran will abrogate parts of the nuclear accord unless other signatories—Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the European Union—help his country bypass the sanctions. The Guards may have drawn the conclusion that sporadic mine attacks are a deniable, low-cost and risk-free way to apply pressure on American allies, without incurring a military response.
“We want to get them back at the table, if they want to go back,” says Mr Trump, referring to his efforts to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Iran. But there are hardliners in America, too. Mr Trump’s hawkish national-security adviser, John Bolton, has long supported regime change in Iran, and even military action against it. In response to the attacks in May, American commanders in the Middle East are reported to have called for an increase of nearly 20,000 troops in the region. Moreover, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have, in recent years, demonstrated a willingness and ability to take military action largely independent of America, in places such as Yemen and Libya. All sides insist they do not want war. But that may not be true of all players. And even if it were, the risk of miscalculation is growing.
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