The government also counts on two civilian groups to help maintain control, particularly in the streets. The first is the Bolivarian militia. Estimates on its size vary widely: The opposition claims it has as few as 20,000 active members, while the government claims it has 100,000 active members and the IISS says it has 220,000. Then there are pro-government armed groups known as “colectivos.” The Bolivarian militia and colectivos may not have formal training or professional equipment, but they do provide valuable support to the military. Indeed, the government has used a combination of civilian groups and military forces to maintain order many times in the past. In 2017, for example, Maduro deployed 200,000 personnel – including both civilian militias and military – to quell widespread anti-government protests. In February and March, the government conducted civil-military drills that focused on securing and defending electricity and water facilities.
In terms of finances, the Venezuelan economy has been in ruins for years now, yet the Maduro government has nonetheless managed to get by using a combination of black market activities to support its patronage network and formal economic mechanisms, such as gold reserves and cryptocurrencies, to conduct trade and oil sales despite U.S. sanctions. Here, support from countries like Russia and China has been essential; these countries have extensive experience skirting U.S. sanctions.
But Maduro’s staying power has also been a result of the opposition’s weakness. The Venezuelan opposition has two key challenges. First, it doesn’t have access to sufficient arms or training to be able to take on a professional military. This is one reason the opposition needs to pull more members of the military over to its side. Second, it lacks a patronage network that can be used to entice military personnel to join its cause. The opposition has offered amnesty to members of the military who defect, but its ability to follow through has to be questioned considering that Maduro still controls the government. Any attempt to revolt would be met with serious consequences.
The opposition has also struggled to convince some Venezuelans not to become complacent. Venezuelans have proved extremely resilient and resourceful, finding numerous ways to survive despite years of food shortages – including bartering over social media, constructing small garden plots, saving rain water and starting creative entrepreneurial endeavors. The opposition has repeatedly reminded protesters that they shouldn’t get used to substandard living conditions, especially as finding ways to cope becomes increasingly difficult. It calls for more protests every time there’s a water shortage, power outage or major transport disruption not only to send a message to the government but also to prevent the people from raising the threshold for conditions they’re willing to tolerate.
The Opposition’s Next Moves
The pressure is now on the opposition to announce its next steps. It has started what it calls “Operation Freedom,” a campaign to force Maduro out of office, consisting of some 800,000 registered volunteers (at least according to the opposition) who help disseminate information and organize protests. In phase one of Operation Freedom, the group is planning a mass, nationwide protest – the date has not been set yet but a rehearsal is scheduled for April 6.
If this all sounds like more of the same, that’s because, in many ways, it is. The opposition has held rally after rally – including on Feb. 23, when Guaido promised that foreign aid would be allowed into the country, and on Jan. 23, the day Guaido declared himself president – but so far none have managed to convince Maduro to step down. Doing more of the same hoping it will bring about a different result isn’t a promising strategy. There’s also been no mention of what will follow phase one, or even how many phases Operation Freedom involves. It’s possible that the opposition wants to keep parts of its plans secret for strategic reasons, but it’ll need to share at least some of its strategy to convince the public it can oust Maduro. Without doing so, Guaido is in danger of losing even more momentum.
To that end, Guaido is now more openly considering getting foreign militaries involved. Initially, the opposition wanted regime change to be imposed using only domestic forces. But faced with the reality that a revolt can’t happen without arms and troops, Guaido appears open to accepting outside support. He even pointed out that, when the British Legion fought with Simon Bolivar for independence in 1819, it was not considered an invading force but rather a source of support. He also said he may apply Article 187.11 of the constitution, which allows the National Assembly to approve foreign military action in Venezuela. (This clause is normally used to allow for military cooperation, humanitarian missions and joint military exercises.) If the opposition were to use this clause, it could be accused of contradicting itself – insisting it wants Venezuela to control its own fate but inviting U.S. support when it suits its interests.
But getting foreign military assistance would be extremely difficult at this point. The countries most likely to help would be the U.S., Colombia and Brazil, but they have all clearly stated they will not intervene militarily. Even the presence of 100 Russian military personnel in Venezuela won’t be enough to change Washington’s approach. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the Russian troops in Venezuela are there to service military equipment delivered to the country. The deployment may be connected with the Kalashnikov factory scheduled to open later this year. Some have speculated that the troops are there to inspect and repair the Russian-made S-300 air defense system Venezuela received in 2013, which has been in need of maintenance for a while.
The longer the Venezuela crisis drags on, the higher the chance that the opposition’s supporters will start to experience resistance fatigue. It’s taken the opposition two years to get to this point – to unite and gain the backing of major global players including the U.S. government. If it doesn’t force change soon, it’s in danger of losing support. And regaining momentum is far easier said than done.
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