All In Til It Drops, Forget All Warnings; The Ultimate High Risk Game

By: Doug Wakefield


I have not posted to the blog recently since week by week equity markets continue to reflect "perfect calm". Don't get me wrong, banana peels and trends are building that could shift the landscape quickly.

Yet today, what we are watching is not only "perfection" in the S&P 500 and Dow, but in South Korea's Kospi Index, India's Nifty 50, and in Argentina's MelVal Index.

Do global headlines support a time of world peace and booming economic prosperity worldwide? Do they support a "perfect calm" in global stocks?

Think with me. Don't fall asleep from the continued drone of algorithmic calm.

Look at these four charts, developed by UBS and Citigroup found in two recent articles on Zero Hedge.

The Global Credit Impulse


Credit growth has fallen off a cliff. The "perfect" stock market view is not supported by "perfect" credit growth.

Is the solution even MORE debt? The Keynesian central bankers seem determined to outrun the largest stock bubble on record by printing their way out of this conundrum.

Central Banks Buy 1.5 Trillion in Assets YTD, ValueWalk, June 10, 2017

After 8 years and over 12 trillion in asset purchases between 2009 and 2016, central banking actions continue telling the crowd, "we have your back". Yet the reality of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 make it clear there is no such thing as a permanent bailout.

These charts by Citigroup make it clear that the era of the "assisted" stock investor is facing the reality of a severe credit contraction.

Central Banks' Response to Lack of Inflation
Credit Fuelled Asset Price Inflation
China House Prices and European Equities


There is no "the market feels"; only "the computers reacted". Without someone's computers preset to trade at specific technical lines over and over again, the "perfect calm" would not exist. A crowd of humans worldwide could never be this precise.

June 9th was a yet another major warning to global equity investors. Ignoring so many fundamental and technical warnings is only increasing more system-wide risk. When the patterns change due to extreme crowding, the big shift will not present investors with much time to mentally and financially adjust.


G3 Central Bank Balance Sheet

For 6 weeks I have been adding to my longest newsletter since starting The Investor's Mind in 2006.

It is called "Ten 'Little' Dominoes". We finished domino #8 last week, with #9 being released next week. Click here to join those reading The Investor's Mind as we monitor these world trends, and seek to prepare for what lies ahead, rather than hope in more "assistance",


Dow Weekly Chart

0 comentarios:

Publicar un comentario