Why It Feels Like the Dot-Com Bubble All Over Again
Today, we’re going to do something different…
As you can imagine, we hear from our readers a lot. Some of them have nice things to say. Others…not so much.
Most importantly, though, we get a lot of questions. Last week, we received a question that was so important, we’re dedicating this entire issue to it.
This question might be something you’re wondering yourself…and it could have a huge impact on your money.
It comes from Joseph J., a subscriber to The Casey Report:
I read today’s newsletter (Trump Should Be Careful What He Wishes For) with great interest.
In it you stated that “U.S. stocks are incredibly expensive…” But my question is: Based against what? We are in uncharted territory, and every single newsletter writer that I have asked this question of has failed to provide an answer. Perhaps you will be different.
Thank you for putting us in the hot seat, Joseph. Lucky for us, we didn’t make this claim lightly. We have plenty of facts to back it up.
Before we show you the proof, you have to realize something: There are many different ways to value stocks.
Everyone has their preference. A lot of folks use the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Other investors look at a company’s book value or cash flow.
• We prefer to use the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio…
This ratio is the cousin of the popular P/E ratio. The only difference is that it uses 10 years’ worth of earnings instead of just the previous year’s.
This smooths out the up and downs of the business cycle. It gives us a long-term view of the market.
Right now, the CAPE ratio for companies in the S&P 500 is 28.4. That’s 70% higher than its historical average. U.S. stocks haven’t been this expensive since the dot-com bubble.
This isn’t a good sign.
As you may remember, the S&P 500 fell 41% from 2000–2002. The Nasdaq plunged 78% over the same period.
• But the CAPE ratio is just one way to value stocks…
To prove we’re not cherry picking, let’s look at some other metrics.
First up, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. This ratio is just like the P/E ratio, but it uses the previous year’s sales instead of earnings.
According to credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s, the S&P 500 currently trades at 2.02 times sales. That’s 40% higher than its historical average, and the highest level since at least 2000.
Clearly, U.S. stocks are more expensive than normal. But that’s not even the main reason investors are nervous about them.
• U.S. stocks seem to have lost touch with reality…
As we all know, the stock market allows investors to own a piece of publicly traded companies. Most of the companies on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) are U.S. companies.
Because of this, you would think the stock market would generally follow the health of the economy.
If the economy’s booming, stocks should be soaring. If the economy’s struggling, stocks should be, too.
That hasn’t been the case lately.
Since 2009, the S&P 500 has surged 239% to record highs. That makes this one of the strongest bull markets in U.S. history.
During that same span, the U.S. economy has grown just 2% per year. That makes the current “recovery” one of the weakest since World War II.
In short, Main Street hasn’t kept up with Wall Street.
• The U.S. stock market is now clearly in “bubble territory”…
Just look at the chart below.
This chart compares the value of the U.S. stock market with the nation’s gross domestic income (GDI).
GDI is like gross domestic product (GDP), but instead of measuring how much money a country spends, it measures how much money a country earns. It counts things like wages, corporate profits, and tax receipts.
A high ratio means stocks are expensive relative to how much money an economy makes.
You can see in the chart below that this key ratio is well above its housing bubble high. It’s now approaching the record high it hit during the dot-com bubble.
• This is another serious red flag…
But it doesn't mean stocks are going to crash next month, or next year.
For this bubble to pop, something will have to prick it. We’re not sure what that will be…where it will come from…or when it will happen…
But we do know stocks don’t go up forever. Sooner or later, this bubble is going to end. When it does, many investors are going to take huge losses. Years’ worth of returns could disappear in a matter of months, even weeks.
The good news is that you can still crisis-proof your portfolio. Here are three ways to get started:
1. Set aside more cash. Holding extra cash will help you avoid big losses if stocks fall. It will also put you in a position to buy stocks when they get cheaper.
2. Own physical gold. Gold is the ultimate safe-haven asset. It’s survived every financial crisis in history. It will certainly survive the next one.
3. Close your weakest positions. Start by selling your most expensive stocks. They tend to fall the hardest during major selloffs. You should also get rid of companies that need cheap debt to make money. If problems in the bond market continue, these companies could be in trouble.
These simple strategies could save you tens of thousands, possibly more, when the inevitable happens.
Chart of the Day
Miners are rallying again.
Today’s chart shows the performance of the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index. This index tracks the performance of companies that mine commodities like gold, silver, aluminum, and copper.
You can see that this index skyrocketed at the beginning of last year. It nearly doubled between January and July. Then, it went almost nowhere for six months.
Three weeks ago, the S&P/TSX Global Mining Index broke out of this sideways trading pattern. It’s now trading at its highest level since early 2015.
This is very bullish. It tells us that mining stocks may have just entered a new phase of a bull market…
If you’ve been thinking about buying mining stocks, now might be a good time to get in. But don’t worry if you don’t know what to buy.
Why It Feels Like the Dot-Com Bubble All Over Again
Les doy cordialmente la bienvenida a este Blog informativo con artículos, análisis y comentarios de publicaciones especializadas y especialmente seleccionadas, principalmente sobre temas económicos, financieros y políticos de actualidad, que esperamos y deseamos, sean de su máximo interés, utilidad y conveniencia.
Pensamos que solo comprendiendo cabalmente el presente, es que podemos proyectarnos acertadamente hacia el futuro.
Gonzalo Raffo de Lavalle
Las convicciones son mas peligrosos enemigos de la verdad que las mentiras.
Quien conoce su ignorancia revela la mas profunda sabiduría. Quien ignora su ignorancia vive en la mas profunda ilusión.
“There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen.”
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
No soy alguien que sabe, sino alguien que busca.
Only Gold is money. Everything else is debt.
Las grandes almas tienen voluntades; las débiles tan solo deseos.
Quien no lo ha dado todo no ha dado nada.
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
We are travelers on a cosmic journey, stardust, swirling and dancing in the eddies and whirlpools of infinity. Life is eternal. We have stopped for a moment to encounter each other, to meet, to love, to share.This is a precious moment. It is a little parenthesis in eternity.
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