Commodities: Too Fast, Too Furious?

Commodities just had their best three month period since 2009

By Spencer Jakab 



Stocks may have had a rocky start to 2016, but commodities were practically a four-letter word. How quickly things have changed.

In the three months ended May, the S&P GSCI index rose by 18.1%. That marks its best such period since July 2009. The recent period reflected a bounce from the epic washout of the deepest post-war recession, so the recovery is really remarkable. Energy was the leader of the pack, rising by over 30%. That was its best three-month gain since the summer of 2008 when oil hit its all-time high.

It sounds bullish, but is it really? Commodities are outperforming stocks for the first year since – gulp – 2007. That marked the end of a five-year bull market and economic expansion. In fact, spiking energy prices preceded three of the last six recessions. We may curse this rebound yet.   

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