jueves, abril 07, 2016

FACE THE MUSIC AND DANCE / DAVE´S DAILY

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Face The Music And Dance
 



So, what’s the trouble ahead?

Was sell-off Tuesday a sign of a severely overbought market correcting (see McClellan Summation index below? 

Worries about a weak earnings?

Is Greece crawling its way back to the forefront as the IMF and EU duke it out over another rescue (the IMF recent leak)?

Do the so-called Panama Papers revelations indicate just scratch the surface of these issues?

How about ongoing global economic weakness, including the U.S where Tuesday’s Trade Deficit indicated a downgrade to GDP ahead, (the Atlanta Fed downgraded U.S. growth to only 0.4%)? Oil prices declined sharply for re-linking previous correlations to stock market declines once again?

And so it goes.

Stock declines became sharp as the day wore on and any previous dip-buying wasn’t seen for the first time in weeks.

So don’t feel too bad as there’s always Fed Minutes on Wednesday for bulls to find a kernel of information to drive stocks higher? Sure, at some point the world’s Central Bank policies will eventually become tiresome and lose their impact. Really? Um, maybe.

Other market moving news was Obama’s threat to deny with more Executive action instead of offering policies to encourage companies with tax policies to would encourage them to bring the money home.

The Allegan and Pfizer merger may be in doubt. Allegan is the largest holdings in the hedge fund space.   

Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day green may mean leveraged inverse or red leveraged short. 

4-5-2016 4-08-49 PM
Volume was light  and breadth per the WSJ was as negative as you might expect.
4-5-2016 4-09-38 PM
 
 
12-17-2015 9-04-44 PM Chart of the Day
 
 
 
4-5-2016 4-17-15 PM KBE


Charts of the Day
  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY 5 MINUTE

  • SPX DAILY

    SPX DAILY

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • XLI WEEKLY

    XLI WEEKLY

  • XLV WEEKLY

    XLV WEEKLY

  • XLU WEEKLY

    XLU WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • DBB WEEKLY

    DBB WEEKLY

  • USO WEEKLY

    USO WEEKLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO DAILY
    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.



  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY
    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended on an intermediate term.

  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY
    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.





























It’s about time we had even a small correction. All the while we’ve seen insiders sell and breadth declining as markets rallied.

That’s a sign of weakness.

Earnings will be rolling out soon enough and those promise to be disappointing unless analyst’s lowered expectations are beat. Even so, earnings won’t be great.

The often odd Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon. What is it we don’t already know? 

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