Orwellian Thoughts And Policies Dominate Market Tape

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OrwellBadNewsIsGood


So sayeth bulls wanting who revel in weak economic news means more sugar from Mama Yellen. It’s just the way those who control the tape want you to understand. Orwellian thoughts and policies dominate the tape now.

Let’s see, we have three days of rallies now, which in itself, is unique given previous volatile back and forth daily action. It’s not crazy to suggest that some insiders had the Fed Minutes leaked to them thus verifying the news still follows the trend. After all, the other shoe that dropped Wednesday was bullish and dovish Fed Minutes.

How far can this rally run? As I’ve been saying from S&P 500 Index 1902 to 1956. We’re now back near levels seen January 29th.

One of the keys to the rally beyond today’s Orwellian “bad news is good” logic occurred with a rise in oil prices. This was linked to Russia and the Saudis agreeing in principle to freeze oil production as current levels.

Of course “current levels” means “no cut” which isn’t bullish at all. Further Iran thought that another good idea, at least for those parties, but it wouldn’t apply to them. Bullish? Hardly.

But, we must remember the tape action should remain truth in an Orwellian way.

Even as Joseph Goebbels suggested, “if you repeat a lie often enough, it becomes truth”.

And so, bad news is good.

Industrial Production rose monthly but annually fell for third consecutive annual decline; Housing Starts fell to and Permits dropped second month in a row. And, in other news, Turkey army barracks in Ankara were car-bombed probably confirming the country will invade Syria. No worries for bulls.

Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day (green) may mean leveraged inverse or leveraged short (red).

2-17-2016 3-13-01 PM

Volume once again was relatively light but grew some into the close. Breadth per the WSJ was positive.

2-17-2016 3-23-38 PM

12-17-2015 9-04-44 PM Chart of the Day



2-17-2016 3-23-59 PM


Charts of the Day


  • SPY 5 MINUTE

    SPY  5  MINUTE

  • SPX DAILY

    SPX DAILY

  • SPX WEEKLY

    SPX WEEKLY

  • INDU DAILY

    INDU DAILY

  • INDU WEEKLY

    INDU WEEKLY

  • RUT WEEKLY

    RUT WEEKLY

  • NDX WEEKLY

    NDX WEEKLY

  • XLB WEEKLY

    XLB WEEKLY

  • XLE WEEKLY

    XLE WEEKLY

  • XLF WEEKLY

    XLF WEEKLY

  • XLY WEEKLY

    XLY WEEKLY

  • XRT WEEKLY

    XRT WEEKLY

  • IYT WEEKLY

    IYT WEEKLY

  • IYR WEEKLY

    IYR WEEKLY

  • ITB WEEKLY

    ITB WEEKLY

  • LQD WEEKLY

    LQD WEEKLY

  • TLT WEEKLY

    TLT WEEKLY

  • UUP WEEKLY

    UUP WEEKLY

  • FXE WEEKLY

    FXE WEEKLY

  • GLD WEEKLY

    GLD WEEKLY

  • GDX MONTHLY

    GDX MONTHLY

  • SLV MONTHLY

    SLV MONTHLY

  • DBB MONTHLY

    DBB MONTHLY

  • DBC MONTHLY

    DBC MONTHLY

  • USO MONTHLY

    USO MONTHLY

  • EFA WEEKLY

    EFA WEEKLY

  • IEV WEEKLY

    IEV WEEKLY

  • EEM WEEKLY

    EEM WEEKLY

  • FXI WEEKLY

    FXI WEEKLY

  • NYMO DAILY

    NYMO  DAILY
    The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

  • NYSI DAILY

    NYSI DAILY


    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.



  • VIX WEEKLY

    VIX WEEKLY
    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation has changed due to a variety of new factors including HFTs, new VIX linked ETPs and a multitude of new products to leverage trading and change or obscure prior VIX relevance.












Do the privileged few get early information? Of course they do, and that goes to the heart of hearings over previous leak of two years ago the Fed has chosen not to account for. Hence the refusal to answer subpoenas from congress.

Like I’ve said previously the rallies upside targets for the S&P 500 are near just as they were on January 29th.

Let’s see what happens.

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