IS THE LATEST GOLD MOVE A BREAKOUT ?
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NICK LAIRD
March 24, 2012
I got a monster e-mail from Nick Laird late last night...and thought all the charts, plus everything had to say in association with them, was worth posting....so here goes.
"The gold oscillator is indicating that the latest move up by gold is a breakout.
"There is good probability that gold has finished it's decline and the next wave should be up and taking out the recent highs at $1,780.
"On a larger scale, the impending move up - if it is strong enough i.e.. takes out $1,800 & then $1,900 - will then trigger a massive rise out of the triangle shown in the chart below.
"This is indicative of a major rise coming in gold - something strong enough to take us up to the mid $2,000's.
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"The first rise up off the bottom was from $1,520 to $1,790 - a rise of 270 or 17.7%. We are now down at the retest level and should move up from here so a 270 rise up from $1,640 will take us up to $1,910.
"We will in all probability see a larger rise here i.e. larger than 18%. "With that rise we retest the all time highs & break through. This will trigger the breakout on the Long Term Gold Oscillator giving us the buy signal for the next leg up to $3,500.
"The last major wave up took us from $700 to $1,900 in 2.5 years. This major wave up should take us from $1,500 to $3,600 in 1.5 years.
"So - a rise from here up to the old highs should occur in the next leg up. This should trigger the buy signal signaling a major move up to the mid $2,000's. A pullback and then a continued rise into the high $2,000's - low $3,000's.
"Another pullback and then the parabolic move up to the top of the leg in mid 2013 at around $3,500. This a possible wave structure for the major rise - a major wave comprised of several sub-major waves. "That will put in a wave up that will fit in with the e-wave chart...
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"So expectations are for a strong move up to be continued by strong moves - large runs up with minor pullbacks moving the market up over 100% from low to high i.e. from $1,500 to $3,500. If it does take on this stance then it will be affirmative of the plotted advance speculated on in the chart above.
"If it doesn't then one can suspect that we are more likely to follow Martin Armstrong's path for gold with a soft year this year as gold gathers strength to run up from 2013 through to 2017.
"At the moment I prefer my version & believe that it has good chance to play out. What the market will depend upon is any manipulation that will prevent the above scenario from playing out.
"But when I look at the last 12 years I see nothing that has impeded the price and amounted to much in stopping gold's relentless rise.
"So we are fast closing in on a position that if confirmed would mean that you should be fully invested in gold & ready for the rise ahead...and I still prefer bullion over gold stocks for this move up.
"I'm still looking for a major bear market in equities & believe that this will weigh heavily upon gold stocks leaving few out performers.
"However if we do get this equities correction then gold stocks will become a definitive buy.
"So - exciting times ahead of us.
Nick
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