BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR IN ARAB WORLD / THE FINANCIAL TIMES COMMENTARY AND ANALYSIS ( VERY HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING )

Be careful what you wish for in Arab world

By Anthony Cordesman

Published: January 27 2011 22:02

The unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen – and indeed, the governing turmoil in Iraq – highlight a critical problem in how the west deals with fractured and failing states. To date, there has been too much focus on demonstrations and too little on the fact that changes in regimes that do not deal with the underlying causes of the protests are simply going to substitute one form of failed regime for another.


The very failures that have suddenly unleashed such passion have left much of the Arab world without the kind of political parties and leaders that can work together and bridge sectarian and tribal differences. They have also prompted uprisings whose voices know what they are against but are not so sure what they are for. Egypt’s opposition is fractured and inexperienced. The Muslim Brotherhood is the strongest political alternative, but is weak and more ideological than practical. It is far from clear that removing President Hosni Mubarak, or holding elections, can produce a new government that can meet the expectations of demonstrators. They want real jobs, an end to corruption, fair income distribution, and police and rule of law that serves the people and not the regime.


These Arab states have young and growing populations. All lack the employment and job creation to serve their people. All have infrastructures that cannot meet popular needs. All have failed to shape their economies in ways that translate growth – to the extent it takes place – into equitable income distribution. All have relied too much on their internal security services. All have failed to address the causes of internal violence, extremism and terrorism. All have distorted their budgets and economies by a focus on security at the expense of governance.


The opposition in these countries is unprepared for the task in hand. If in power, all will have major problems in using aid effectively, and not wasting it in corruption and mismanagement. All will need help in shaping budgets with the right priorities, in finding the proper balance between the public and private sectors, and in reallocating money more effectively and equitably to meet local and regional needs.


The US and Europe need to focus on helping them meet these challenges. They need to stop focusing on democracy, human rights and the rule of law, as if repressive states without effective governance could suddenly become mirror images of the west.


Moreover, making empty calls for stability and then having sudden shifts in policy to support regime change is scarcely a convincing way to persuade the peoples of such states that the west really cares about their future.


What is needed is more sustained US and European support to help strengthen governance – both in existing and new regimes. The west must set up programmes to help states develop their economies in ways that meet popular expectations and needs, and not simply provide macroeconomic growth or project aid.


It has also to look beyond a narrow focus on central government. Focusing on central government and its politics can – as US aid efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown all too clearly – do little or nothing towards creating effective local and regional government; nor does this engender popular faith in the government.

For Europe, such efforts will be vital in dealing with the stability of North Africa, and the pressures that drive legal and illegal immigrants across the Mediterranean. For the US, they are critical in containing Iran and ensuring that Egypt and Jordan will underpin an Arab-Israeli peace.


If the US is to lead such efforts it must make fundamental changes in the way the military and counterterrorism forces, and the State Department and USAID, as well as Congress, analyse and implement policies, wars and aid efforts. America now focuses too much on rhetoric about democracy and elections, legislating human rights, creating new constitutions and formal top-down approaches to the rule of law.


So far, little in America’s record in Iraq and Yemen is reassuring as a precedent for its policies towards the latest upheavals in the Arab world. Sadly, the US shows little sign of being ready to deal with the truly critical problem of Egypt, or take preventive action to help other friendly Arab regimes adopt a more peaceful approach to reform and change.


The writer holds the Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and has worked extensively on security, governance, and economic reform in the Middle East


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011.