U.S. HAS NO GOOD OPTIONS OVER NORTH KOREA / THE FINANCIAL TIMES COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS ( VERY HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING )

US has no good options over North Korean clash

By Aidan Foster-Carter

Published: November 23 2010 10:33

The news that North Korea has launched an artillery barrage against a South Korean island shows that last week’s move to put its nuclear capability back on the world agenda was part of a deliberate strategy to escalate tension in the region.


Pyongyang plays provocative tricks, in peculiar ways. But there is method to its madness. Before this incident its decision to take a top US nuclear scientist on a brief tour of a hitherto wholly unsuspected uranium enrichment facility, seemingly built to high standards in barely 18 months, was calculated to catapult the dreary old North Korean nuclear issue from its usual back-burner status onto the front pages.


The new attacks are designed to do the same, but with much more drama. In both cases the North Korean move is designed to give the US, South Korea and their allies a fresh headache they could well do without. Then as now the message is clear. We can cause trouble. We know how to do so. You had better believe it, and start taking us more seriously.


That said, the new moves raises more troubling questions. The decision to show off its nuclear facilities was designed to boost the “young general”, Kim Jong-il’s third son and heir Kim Jong-eun. But they also were clearly aimed is to force the US and its allies back to the conference table and resume the six party talks, stalled since 2008.


In all this America faces a huge dilemma over how to respond, and especially over how to deal with China. Stephen Bosworth, the US special envoy on North Korea now hastily dispatched to the region, knows that Beijing has recently drawn closer to its errant neighbour.


Last month Xi Jinping, seen as China’s next leader, hailed the Korean War on its 60th anniversary as “a great and just war resisting aggression.” That grated in Seoul, already smarting at China’s refusal to accept Northern culpability for the fatal sinking of its warship Cheonan in March.


In the coming days Beijing will not dance to Washington’s tune, much less Seoul’s. China is increasingly the only power in play with North Korea, in that it is the only player with the ability to change the regime’s behaviour. China has already expressed “concern” at the military action; the question now is what more will Beijing do?


South Korea will also need careful handing. Their recent request for a return of US nuclear weapons will look more reasonable, but any action on this front will merely raise tension further. In all this there will be calls for further sanctions, even though existing sanctions patently haven’t worked.


The next few days will be tense. More violence is possible. But in the end the US and China have few options but to try and calm both sides down, and persuade everyone to return to the table. Bombing Yongbyon, the nuclear facility, is not an option; Bill Clinton did the horrific sums back in 1994.


In short, the US has no good options, ergo it will have to talk in some form; albeit with egg on face and through gritted teeth. It looks like back to jaw-jaw in some form – but for even higher stakes than before.


The writer is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010.