SARKOZY SEES TROUBLE OVER THE SEINE / THE FINANCIAL TIMES COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS ( HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING )

Sarkozy sees trouble over the Seine

By Dominique Moïsi

Published: September 28 2010 20:38

Great Britain’s insular attitude used to be known as one of splendid isolation. But might the same term now be applied to Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, as he sits increasingly without friends and with shrinking public support in the Elysée Palace, the seat of the French presidency? The unpopularity of an incumbent president is, of course, not new in the history of France’s fifth Republic. But what is new in Mr Sarkozy’s case is the extent of his fall from favour.


There is a growing sense, especially within his own camp of supporters, that there now exists a structural disconnect between the requirements of presidential power in a country such as France and the personal style of Mr Sarkozy. Even in the prime minister’s office, across the Seine, the distance between the two seats of the executive is palpable. Observers are reminded of the situation more than 30 years ago when Valéry Giscard d’Estaing was president and Jacques Chirac his estranged prime minister. Mr Giscard d’Estaing was the last French leader not to win a second term in office.


A kind of “we and they” atmosphere has settled in across the top of the French state; meaning one in which “we are not responsible for what the president and his ‘court’ does”. He still openly despises the French elite, perhaps because he is not an énarque – a graduate of the elite ENA, the national school administration for senior civil servants – and feels unaccepted by them. Yet even within Mr Sarkozy’s own UMP party there is a growing sense of disarray as if the president is a handicap, and a sure guarantee that they will lose their seats in the next legislative elections due to take place in about May 2012 alongside the presidential elections.


To some extent this fall from popularity is unfair. He is actually courageously addressing certain structural reforms, starting with the issue of the French retirement age. There is also much hypocrisy all over Europe, not to mention in France, on the question of the Roma. What has Europe itself done to redress their unacceptable status within countries such as Romania and Bulgaria? The comparison made by EU commissioner Viviane Reding between France’s deportation of the Roma today and the deportation of the Jews during the second world war was both profoundly shocking and totally irrelevant.


That said, Mr Sarkozy is ultimately responsible for his standing in France and Europe. His true problems begin with a fundamental misunderstanding about the nature of power in a democratic society in our global age. The French president keeps emphasising the immensity of his responsibility. He repeats constantly that he is “in charge of the French”; indeed that he has to save them. But this is not only wrong, it leads inevitably to a non viable over-centralisation of power. Only the French can save themselves and it is the role of the president, as a master pedagogue, to convince them of what is good for themselves, while both making them feel protected, yet responsible for themselves, too.


Beyond this there is the issue of style. Trained as a lawyer, Mr Sarkozy wants to win points at all costs, even at the risk of sacrificing long-term interests to short-term gains. Take the last European Summit in Brussels: larger EU countries ought to seduce those that are smaller, not bully them as Mr Sarkozy tends to.


The gentle cajoling that Barack Obama, US president, is at least trying to achieve in the rest of the world should be good enough for France too. Yet Mr Sarkozy seems imbued with attitudes learned during his stint as president-in-waiting at the French interior ministry. He sees conspiracies everywhere. Worse, his well documented fascination with money and wealthy individuals has represented a growing handicap in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis.


What will happen? It is unlikely that the constant deterioration of the president’s image inside and outside France can continue without major consequences. Many analysts believe French politics is today returning to 1980 – with a one-term rightwing presidency soon to be ended by the victory of the left. And given the present mixture conservative depression and irritation, Mr Sarkozy may even find himself in the situation of Margaret Thatcher at the end of her time in power when she was rejected by many in her own party.


Of course, the French system does not allow for a party to throw out its leader before their time. It would also be dangerous to underestimate the left’s capacity for disunity or Mr Sarkozy’s incredible energy. He was a formidable candidate in 2007 and the right may come to the conclusion that he is the least divisive candidate in 2012. Nonetheless, Mr Sarkozy often referred to Lady Thatcher as a source of inspiration. It is not inconceivable that his detractors in his own camp can find inspiration in her downfall too.


The writer is a senior adviser at France’s Institute for International Relations. His latest book is The Geopolitics of Emotion

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010