Corruption thrives in a globalised world
Has corruption become more common? Or simply easier to expose
Gideon Rachman
Remember the Brics? When the concept was first launched by Goldman Sachs in 2001, it was a handy acronym to describe the world’s most dynamic emerging economies. There were always sceptics who questioned just how much Brazil, Russia, India and China have in common. Those doubts only grew when South Africa joined the club.
But it turns out that the Brics do have something in common after all — corruption. In all five countries, popular rage about graft is at the very heart of politics. And because these countries are increasingly important to the world economy, their corruption problems have global implications.
Both Brazil and South Africa have seen presidents forced out of office by corruption scandals — with Jacob Zuma compelled to resign in South Africa this year, and Dilma Rousseff being impeached in Brazil in 2016. In Russia, the ruling United Russia party is widely known as the “party of crooks and thieves”. The rise to power of Narendra Modi was fuelled by his pledge to crack down on corruption among the elites. The Indian prime minister has since taken the drastic step of abolishing about 80 per cent of the country’s currency, in an effort to squash the black economy. In China, President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive has seen more than 100,000 officials arrested. Meanwhile, Chinese exiles have spread online allegations that corruption extends into President Xi’s inner circle.
High-profile corruption scandals are not confined to the Brics. This month Mariano Rajoy was forced to resign as prime minister of Spain after seven years in office, following a scandal in his political party. And last month Malaysia’s ruling party lost power for the first time since the 1950s — after allegations that the prime minister, Najib Razak, had embezzled vast sums.
Corruption has always existed — and it has never been popular. But the frequency and political impact of corruption scandals seem to be growing all over the world. So has corruption become more common? Or has it simply become easier to expose? The answer seems to be that both things are happening simultaneously.
The globalisation of business and finance opened up opportunities to make corrupt profits in fast-growing emerging economies. Industries that often need official involvement, such as natural resources and infrastructure, are particularly lucrative targets. There are contracts to be awarded and development projects that need official approval. And the money for bribes can always be deposited offshore.
But such malpractice can be exposed. Strong, independent prosecutors and judges such as Brazil’s Sérgio Moro and South Africa’s Thulisile Madonsela have done heroic work in driving forward anti-corruption investigations. Press freedom in Brazil and South Africa has also been critical in keeping up the pressure on corrupt politicians.
Even when the national media are muzzled, the internet provides an alternative medium for airing corruption allegations. The “Panama Papers”, which detailed the offshore financial affairs of many prominent politicians, was the result of an international journalistic project and based on hacked documents.
New forms of international co-operation and transparency have also made would-be crooks more vulnerable to exposure. Changes in the Swiss laws on banking secrecy — made under pressure from the US — were crucial to allowing Brazilian prosecutors to uncover the proceeds of corruption. International investigations by the Swiss and Americans also kept up the pressure on Malaysia’s Mr Razak.
But conquering corruption is not something that can be achieved with a single cathartic effort. Lasting progress requires strong institutions that can survive changes in the political climate; independent courts and prosecutors with training and resources; a press that cannot easily be bought off, jailed or killed; efficient civil servants who cannot be fired at the whim of a corrupt boss. Remove any of those elements and corruption seeps back into the system.
Prosecutors in Brazil are haunted by the example of the “clean hands” investigations in Italy in the early 1990s. These swept away many powerful figures — and were seen as a watershed. But within a few years, Silvio Berlusconi, who epitomised shady business practices, had been elected prime minister.
Searching for examples of lasting cultural change in the battle against corruption, Brazilian prosecutors have lighted upon the example of Hong Kong under British colonial rule and the establishment of an Independent Commission Against Corruption in 1974. Even that achievement may now be in doubt, with growing fears that the independence of Hong Kong’s institutions is being compromised by pressure from mainland China.
The concerns over Hong Kong might give pause to those who interpret the eruption of scandals all over the world as evidence that the global battle against graft is being won. An alternative theory is that the growing economic power of countries such as China, India and Russia may be spreading corrupt practices more widely. The US, EU and UK pride themselves on their sound institutions. But western bankers, lawyers, real estate agents, PR firms (and perhaps even presidents) are often all too willing to share in the proceeds of corruption.
CORRUPTION THRIVES IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD / THE FINANCIAL TIMES OP EDITORIAL
THE LATEST CHAPTER IN THE EUROPEAN MIGRATION CRISIS / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES
The Latest Chapter in the European Migration Crisis
By Jacob L. Shapiro
HOW WORLD CUP SPONSORSHIPS MIRRORS GLOBAL ECONOMIC SHIFTS / KNOWLEDGE@WHARTON
How World Cup Sponsorship Mirrors Global Economic Shifts

As a Dutch Bulgarian living in Luxembourg, I thought the 2018 World Cup would be a boring sports event. The three countries I identify with – the Netherlands, Bulgaria, and Luxembourg – played in the same group. So statistically I was hopeful that at least one of them would qualify. But somehow, not one made it to Moscow. From that group, only France and Sweden qualified. My only comfort is that the three are in the good company of Italy.
I contemplated watching other sports events this summer, such as Wimbledon, where Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov is one of the favorites, or the Women’s Hockey World Cup, which the Dutch might win again. But then, you can’t ignore half of humanity: the World Cup is by far the world’s most-watched sports event, viewed last time by more than 3.2 billion people.

More Asia, less North America and Europe
Since 1982, the World Cup was won by a European country six times (twice by Germany, twice by Italy, once by Spain and once by France), and by a Latin American country (twice by Brazil and once by Argentina) three times. But in terms of the biggest sponsors, the geographic distribution looks quite different.
In 1986, four European companies supported the event, as well as four from North America and four from Asia. In the 1990s, there was a rapid increase in North American sponsorship, which then halted at the end of that decade. Even though European countries had been winning the tournament, European companies were backing away from the event. In 2018, only one sole European company was still pouring money into it.

China Replaces Japan as Top Asian Sponsor
If you belong to that one half of the world population watching the World Cup, you might already have seen this trend from the growing number of Chinese billboards around the pitch.
A third of World Cup top partners are now from China, a record for the country. Before 2014, not a single Chinese company was a sponsor. Within the last two installments of the event, there are now as many Chinese top sponsors as there are American.
It is also interesting to see that Chinese companies are replacing Japan as the top Asian sponsor. Until 2006, the Japanese represented the leading Asian brands at the World Cup. This time, they are completely absent.
If you’re not a football fan, it might surprise you that China is so active even without its national team qualifying for the tournament. China played in the World Cup only once, in 2002.

So could the World Cup sponsorship serve as a proxy of future global economic shifts? More than you might think.
In previous op-eds (see links below), I have pointed to the fact that Asia is rapidly overtaking Europe and North America in relative economic power, a trend that will continue for the next decades. A prestigious World Cup sponsorship is a sign of Asia’s rising economic power. It puts a company eye-to-eye with some of the biggest industry giants – in front of an enormous and still growing audience. This year, 200 million more people will watch the World Cup than four years ago.

For now, Asia’s presence at the World Cup reflects its economic power more than its football prowess. Judging by the first results, Europe is still pretty good at football. But that might change. Asians love the sport, too. Most of the viewers of the World Cup 2014 were from Asia, and the number of fans is still growing. More than 1.5 billion people in Asia watched at least a minute of the World Cup in 2014, and more than 750 million watched more than 20 minutes. China has the most viewers: a quarter of a billion. With such a large audience, sponsoring the event by Chinese companies is a smart move. Even if the country has not qualified – yet.

What’s Coming?
The President of China, Xi Jinping, is a big football fan. He has three dreams for China and the World Cup: participate, host and win. China is investing heavily in football schools and exchanges with European counterparts to help it excel at the game. The financial and economic foundations are already there; the infrastructure to get better football results is rapidly being built. With 1.3 billion people, there is a lot of talent to scout.
I really hope that China will one day qualify. Of course, I also hope the same for my beloved Dutch, Bulgarian, and Luxembourg teams. And the economic shifts that are evident in the sponsorship of the game notwithstanding, I will concentrate on the tournament this summer. Why? Because it is simply the most beautiful game in the world. Even if you don’t take part. If you don’t believe me, just ask one of the 3.4 billion people watching the World Cup 2018 right now.

THE FORCE BEHIND EUROPE´S POPULIST TIDE: FRUSTRATED YOUNG ADULTS / THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The Force Behind Europe’s Populist Tide: Frustrated Young Adults
Struggling to find jobs, and often living at home, younger generations are propelling antiestablishment parties to new heights of power
By Eric Sylvers
Giada Gramanzini moved back to her parents’ home in Naples last year while looking for work. Jobless young people are driving the antiestablishment political shift in Europe.
A youth revolt is upending Italian politics, and it could be a harbinger of things to come.
Western Europe’s largest antiestablishment government came to power earlier this month, driven largely by young Italian voters. Struggling with a persistent lack of job prospects over the past decade, they voted in droves for two parties in the country’s March 4 elections, the 5 Star Movement and the League, an anti-immigration party.
The result laid bare a stark generation gap, with older Italians, who often have to support their grown children, continuing to vote for mainstream parties.
The same pattern appears across southern Europe, and the forces behind the divide show few signs of slowing. Almost 30% of Italians age 20 to 34 aren’t working, studying or in a training program, according to Eurostat, more than in any other European Union country. Greece is second at 29%, while Spain’s rate is 21%.
“Italy is collapsing and yet nothing has changed in this country for at least 30 years,” said Carlo Gaetani, a self-employed engineer in Puglia. Ten years ago, when he was in his early 20s, he voted for a center-left party that he hoped would push for economic development in southern Italy. When Italy descended into a crippling recession, he felt betrayed by the traditional Italian left-wing parties. He has seen friends struggle to find jobs, and said his own business opportunities are limited to the stagnant private sector, because commissions for the public sector are usually awarded to people with connections he doesn’t have.
Mr. Gaetani, now 33, voted for 5 Star in the 2013 election, a choice he repeated in March with more conviction. “5 Star is our last hope. If they also fail, I think I’ll stop voting,” he said.
SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS
Younger adults who do find employmentmust often accept short-term contracts.
Share of adults age 15-25 with temporary contracts* in 2017
*Generally lasting one year or less.
Source: Eurostat
The employment rate of Italians under 40 fell every year from 2007 to 2014 before flatlining over the past three years, according to Eurostat. Meanwhile, it has risen every year for those between 55 and 64 years, in part due to an increase in the retirement age.
The number of Italians under 34 in absolute poverty—defined as being unable to afford basic goods and services—more than doubled between 2010 and 2016 to 10%, according to the Italian National Institute of Statistics, or Istat. For those over 65, it dropped to 3.8% from 5.4%.
One major problem in southern Europe is a dual employment system in which people with open-ended contracts—often older workers—enjoy ironclad job security and benefits. At the same time, during the downturn, employers began to use more short-term contracts, generally lasting from one month to a year. In Italy, 62% of contracts for those under age 25 were short-term in 2017, up from a quarter in 2000.
Italian policy makers introduced the contracts in the 1990s in part to help young people enter the labor force as a step to permanent work. Employers used them to avoid the cost and hassle involved in firing people. Echoing labor overhauls elsewhere in Europe, Italy introduced a major revamp of work rules in 2014 and 2015 that tried to get employers to use more open-ended contracts, including billions of euros in tax breaks. The most generous breaks expired in 2016.
OUT OF WORK
In Southern Europe, younger adults are still struggling a decade after the financial crisis hit.
People age 20-34 not employed, in school or in a training program
Source: Eurostat
The efforts didn’t have the desired effect of creating structural change to the labor market that would wean employers off using short-term contracts. In 2016, when the tax breaks were in place, only 13% of new hires were on short-term contracts. Last year, more than four out of five new hires were on short-term contracts, according to Istat.
The 5 Star Movement has lured millions of young voters with promises to roll back new labor rules, give the unemployed and poor a so-called universal basic income of €780 ($905) a month, and abolish unpaid apprenticeship contracts. Its leader, Luigi Di Maio, was a 26-year-old university dropout who lived with his parents when he was elected to parliament in 2013. Today, he is a deputy prime minister.
The League also made canceling the recent labor revamp a central part of its electoral platform.
Italy’s economic problems played into young voters’ sentiments about immigration during the campaign as well, one of the animating drivers of support for the League. “We can’t host all of Africa,” said Gianluca Taburchi, a 23-year old supermarket employee from Perugia who voted for the League. “We already have our own problems. We have lots of unemployment and unsecure jobs.”
Matteo Salvini, the leader of the League who became a deputy prime minister and interior minister in the new government, promised to return hundreds of thousands of migrants to their countries of origin. 5 Star, which straddles the line on many issues, spoke of stemming illegal immigration, but stopped short of calling for mass deportations.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, center, with Deputy Prime Ministers Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini, at the Italian Parliament on June 6. Photo: ettore ferrari/EPA/Shutterstock
About 53% of Italians under 35 voted for the two parties combined, according to an Ipsos poll.
About 43% of Italians over 65 voted for legacy center-right and center-left parties, while only 28% of young Italians did.
Elsewhere, almost 40% of Spaniards under 35 said in an April poll they would vote for far-left Podemos and its political allies in a coming election. In Greece, more than 41% of those age 18 to 24 voted for Syriza in the 2015 election, six points more than the antiestablishment party got across all age groups.
Argyro Maltasoglou, 30, said she voted for Syriza in the 2015 election because she thought the upstart party would make radical changes, especially in terms of policies to help young people. Since graduating from college in 2013, she has been bouncing between short-term contracts lasting less than a year. She has been looking for a job since her short-term contract as a secretary in an Athens hospital expired in March.
The job paid €500 a month, the most Ms. Maltasoglou has earned so far. She has had to accept money from her parents to get by. “This isn’t what I dreamed of when I was studying,” she said. “I would like to have a family, but I wouldn’t dare to think about it now under these conditions.”
One exception to the generational phenomenon is the U.K.’s 2016 vote to leave the EU: 71% of voters age 18 to 24 voted for the country to remain in the bloc, according to a poll by YouGov. Only 26% of those 65 and over voted to remain.
Supporters of the League marched in a rally on Feb. 24. Photo: miguel medina/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Studies following the Brexit vote showed that, in this case, young Britons valued the increased ease of working, studying and traveling abroad that EU membership brings. At the same time, many older voters viewed leaving the EU as an opportunity for the U.K. to better control immigration.
The pain in southern Europe reflects a feeling across much of the Western world that the younger generation will struggle to surpass their parents in wealth and security. Half of Italians who responded last year to an online survey on jobs site Monster.com said they thought they will earn less over their careers than their parents.
Young Italians, who bore the brunt of the country’s protracted, triple-dip recession, still bear the scars that will affect their career prospects, homeownership and birthrates for decades to come.
Banks are reluctant to lend to people on short-term contracts, which has helped push up the average age of home buyers to 41.6 years in 2017 from 39.4 years in 2012, according to Fabiana Megliola, head of research for real estate group Tecnocasa. In 2017, 56% of home buyers in Italy were under 45, down 10 percentage points from five years.
The number of Italians getting married has fallen by a fifth over the past decade, according to Istat. In 2016, the last year for which data are available, Italian men got married on average at age 35 and women at 32, in both cases two years later than in 2008. Births hit an all-time low last year.
FAILURE TO LAUNCH
In Italy, economic woes have led many youngpeople to live with their parents and hold offon marriage.
Share of adults age 25-34 living with theirparents in 2016
Source: Eurostat

Number of new marriages in Italy
Source: Italian National Institute of Statistics
In a country with strong family ties, parents are stepping in to help adult children. They can often afford to help because they enjoy pensions that are the fruit of decades of generous retirement benefits. Italy spends more than 15% of its economic output on pensions, the most in Europe except Greece.
About half of Italians age 25 to 34 live with their parents, according to Eurostat, almost double the European average and more than in any other Western European country. The number has risen 3 percentage points in the past decade. And more than a third of Italians in their 30s get economic help from their parents or grandparents, according to a survey by agricultural industry association Coldiretti and polling firm Ixè.
Parties such as 5 Star could continue to win over more young voters if they are able to enact some of the pro-youth policies its leaders campaigned on. “I’m not interested in politics because nobody on either side [of the political spectrum] is doing much to help young people,” said Giada Gramanzini, a 29-year-old Italian university graduate. She hasn’t found a steady job since deciding not to renew a three-month contract as a full-time receptionist that paid her about $2.70 an hour. Last year, she moved back in with her retired parents and sent out more than 70 resumes before moving to New York last month to try her luck in another country.
In the March election she voted for a small pro-European party, in what she called a protest against the Democratic Party—the center-left party that ruled the past five years. She didn’t feel 5 Star was ready to govern.
Her father, Emilio, collects a good pension after working most of his career for the Naples municipal administration. Her mother, Daniela, began working full time at 20 and was employed by the city for several decades. She retired last year.

Giada Gramanzini with her father, Emilio. Photo: Giovanni Cipriano for The Wall Street Journal
Daniela worries about the late start Giada is getting on adult life. “How can you not be worried about your daughter if at 29 she still hasn’t found her way?” she asks.
—Nektaria Stamouli and Jeannette Neumann contributed to this article.
TRUMP TRADE WAR IS A SIDE SHOW / SEEKING ALPHA
Trump Trade War Is A Side Show
by: Alan Longbon
Summary
- The trade war is more show than reality and designed to impress President Trump Rust Belt support base.
- Trump woos his Rust Belt support base while selling them down the river.



- The entire American public pays more money so that the relatively fewer American car makers can receive more money. The philosophy of tariffs is for many to pay more so the few can receive more.
- Tax dollars are taken from the economy and sent to the federal government, which being Monetarily Sovereign, and not needing to receive dollars, destroys them. Reducing the money supply is economically recessive.
- To protect vital industries from extinction. Consider, for instance, steel. Steel is a vital defense product for tanks and battleships, and if there ever were a military war, the nation with a monopoly on steel manufacturing would have a distinct advantage.
- To protect domestic jobs. Every industry that is depleted by foreign competition loses jobs.
- Federal government purchases from domestic suppliers, even at higher than import prices.
- Federal tax breaks for the selected industries
- Direct federal cash subsidies to the selected companies.
Bienvenida
Les doy cordialmente la bienvenida a este Blog informativo con artículos, análisis y comentarios de publicaciones especializadas y especialmente seleccionadas, principalmente sobre temas económicos, financieros y políticos de actualidad, que esperamos y deseamos, sean de su máximo interés, utilidad y conveniencia.
Pensamos que solo comprendiendo cabalmente el presente, es que podemos proyectarnos acertadamente hacia el futuro.
Gonzalo Raffo de Lavalle
Las convicciones son mas peligrosos enemigos de la verdad que las mentiras.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Quien conoce su ignorancia revela la mas profunda sabiduría. Quien ignora su ignorancia vive en la mas profunda ilusión.
Lao Tse
“There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen.”
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.
Warren Buffett
No soy alguien que sabe, sino alguien que busca.
FOZ
Only Gold is money. Everything else is debt.
J.P. Morgan
Las grandes almas tienen voluntades; las débiles tan solo deseos.
Proverbio Chino
Quien no lo ha dado todo no ha dado nada.
Helenio Herrera
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
Karl Marx
If you know the other and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
Sun Tzu
We are travelers on a cosmic journey, stardust, swirling and dancing in the eddies and whirlpools of infinity. Life is eternal. We have stopped for a moment to encounter each other, to meet, to love, to share.This is a precious moment. It is a little parenthesis in eternity.
Paulo Coelho

Archivo del blog
-
►
2019
(1982)
- ► septiembre (187)
-
▼
2018
(1928)
- ► septiembre (173)
-
►
2017
(1947)
- ► septiembre (160)
-
►
2016
(2576)
- ► septiembre (182)
-
►
2015
(2928)
- ► septiembre (271)