The Jerusalem Talks
Security officials from Russia, the U.S. and Israel are meeting next week to discuss regional developments.
By George Friedman
On Monday, U.S. national security adviser John Bolton will meet with his Israeli and Russian counterparts in Jerusalem. A trilateral meeting such as this is odd to begin with, and one taking place amid the situation currently unfolding in the Middle East even more so. Also interesting is that this meeting is taking place in Jerusalem. While Russia maintains decent relations with Israel, a meeting of this sort in Jerusalem would seem to indicate a Russian indifference to Muslim sensibilities – something Israel and the U.S. display regularly. Still, they’ve agreed to meet in Jerusalem this time, optics aside. Topping the meeting agenda, purportedly, is Syria. But there’s plenty else going on in the Middle East for the three to discuss.
The officials will meet in the midst of intensifying tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Last week, the U.S. blamed Iran for attacks on two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, and this week Iran shot down an American drone. On Friday, news broke that the U.S. had been ready to launch airstrikes in response to the downed drone, but that U.S. President Donald Trump had called off the attacks at the last minute, feeling they would have caused disproportional casualties. That may be true, or the White House may have been bluffing an attack to unnerve the Iranians; Trump has been intimating a desire for talks with Iran and may have been trying to force Tehran to the table. Whatever the intent, tensions in the Persian Gulf remain high.
The officials will meet in the midst of intensifying tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Last week, the U.S. blamed Iran for attacks on two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, and this week Iran shot down an American drone. On Friday, news broke that the U.S. had been ready to launch airstrikes in response to the downed drone, but that U.S. President Donald Trump had called off the attacks at the last minute, feeling they would have caused disproportional casualties. That may be true, or the White House may have been bluffing an attack to unnerve the Iranians; Trump has been intimating a desire for talks with Iran and may have been trying to force Tehran to the table. Whatever the intent, tensions in the Persian Gulf remain high.
Meanwhile, Israel is engaged in massive war games that appear to be focused on the Syrian border. Israel sees the presence of Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah, in Syria as a direct threat to its security – a threat they’ve countered with periodic airstrikes on Iranian positions in Syria. Israel has kept Russia apprised of impending attacks, and Russia, which controls Syrian air space and has generally been allied with Iran in Syria, has nonetheless allowed the airstrikes to go on for months.
There’s no doubt that all three countries will want to speak about Iran. The U.S. and Israeli positions are fairly clear. Israel wants Iran out of Syria and Hezbollah disarmed, while the U.S. wants to break the Iranian sphere of influence that currently stretches from Iran though Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. The question, then, is what brings Russia to the table. Moscow has said it will make the case for Iran (though whether Iran trusts Russia as its mouthpiece is another question altogether). But Russia’s main interests lay outside of the Middle East; it wants to regain its strategic buffer that collapsed in 1992, and it wants to see an increase in energy prices to stabilize its economy.
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