The borderland countries have always looked to balance the West against the East, making sure security risks remain low. The region has always faced the possibility of invasion. At the same time, these countries see Russia’s weakening as a sign that it could become more aggressive. As Moscow deals with economic problems caused by low oil prices and tries to contain any potential societal stress, the borderland countries are also in distress – for different reasons.
Estonian economic growth has been modest during the last few years, as it continues to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Until 2014, Russia was Estonia’s largest export destination, and the Baltic country was profoundly affected by EU sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014. Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas and his Reform Party have been in office since April 2015. But economic stagnation has led to conflicting views between the governing parties on taxation and other economic policies. This led the Social Democrats and the Res Publica Union to team up with the Center Party to oust the Rõivas government on Nov. 9. The Center Party is historically pro-Russian and represents the country’s Russian minority, about a quarter of the population.
Before the no-confidence vote last week, the Center Party’s openly pro-Russian leader Edgar Savisaar was replaced by the moderate Jüri Ratas. The Social Democrats have hinted he could become the next prime minister. This is a key change, because in 2010, Estonia’s intelligence agency, Kaitsepolitsei, labeled Savisaar an “agent of influence” for Russia and a “security threat” after he received 1.5 million euros (about $2 million) from a Russian nongovernmental organization. Estonian media report that political leaders have reassured the public that the political crisis is a domestic issue and will not lead to a change in foreign policy.
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