Donald Trump made a move that will either go down as sheer genius or utter idiocy.
Trump’s problem is that he is continually behind Hillary Clinton in the polls by about five points. He is also substantially behind her in the electoral college. This has been roughly the situation since the Democratic Convention, although there has been a small move toward Trump in the national polls, but almost none in the electoral college. He has a substantial base of voters, about 40 percent, and he must move about 6 to 7 percent to win the popular vote and eke out the electoral. That should not be impossible. But Trump has little room to grow. The number who say they have negative views of him are most of the rest of the electorate. Clinton is also disliked intensely, but her negative numbers, while substantial, are less than his. If this were election day, he would lose. He has to find a strategy that would allow him to roll back his negatives somewhat and win over a few of those who are voting for Clinton only because she isn’t Trump. His problem is that what he did in order to win the Republican nomination was what created these negative feelings. To make inroads there, he had to do two things. First, he had to alleviate the sentiment that he was unable to serve as president because of profound character flaws. Second, he opened his campaign by attacking Mexican illegal immigrants and Muslims, as well as free trade and the U.S. alliance system. He wound up in a position where he either reduced the negatives or gave up the election. Clinton reportedly already started choosing her Cabinet. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto threw Trump a lifeline, which was extraordinary, given the things Trump said about Mexico. Nieto invited Trump and Clinton to meet with him in Mexico. Now, for Clinton this didn’t mean much. She hasn’t got a Mexico problem. For Trump it offered a possibility to go into hostile territory, demonstrating self-control and shifting stance a bit. If he failed, he was in no worse condition than before – losing. If he succeeded in winning over voters he could change the race. As I said, Clinton didn’t play in this game, so the question is why Nieto offered Trump this chance. Nieto can’t run again, his own favorability ratings are in the 20 percent range, and he knew inviting Trump would create a collective rage attack in Mexico. Given that his own numbers can only rise, and he is barred from running for re-election, the answer might actually be statesmanship. If Clinton wins, Mexico’s relations with the United States stay the same. If Trump wins, relations can turn disastrous. Mexico needs the U.S. far more than the U.S. needs Mexico. By reaching out to Trump, he might be able to soften Trump’s positions and create a personal relationship, based on the assumption that Trump isn’t actually committed to the things he says. This would infuriate Clinton, but Nieto calculated that it didn’t matter, as she was locked into her position on Mexico. Trump jumped at the chance. First, he got to stand side by side with the president of Mexico and show that he could speak coherently. This was a double win. Second, it gave him a chance to refine – or moderate, depending on your point of view – his position.
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