Can Bonds Keep Defying Their Many Skeptics?
Bond guru Gary Shilling remains bullish on the sector. And are the data flashing recession signals?
By John Kimelman
Here’s a brief summary of some of the more thought-provoking stuff I’ve come across today.
While stocks have surprised many by rallying in recent weeks, some bond categories have performed even better. Apparently, many fixed-income classes never got the memo that their time is over.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund is up 17.5% this year, outpacing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, which has gained just 7% in that period. Though the SPDR Barclays Intermediate Term Corp Bond ETF is trailing the Standard & Poor’s 500 slightly, it’s still up almost 5% this year.
![](https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-BU068_questi_M_20160823181333.jpg)
Pixabay
A Tumblr post by investment writer John Mauldin quotes the latest thinking of bond guru Gary Shilling, who makes the case that bonds can continue their upward movement.
Shilling is a veteran bond watcher. In 1981, when inflation and Treasury yields were hitting new heights, Shilling correctly saw that we were, in his words, entering “the bond rally of a lifetime.”
Thirty-five years later, Shilling is still bullish on bonds, despite the fact that both inflation and interest rates are in the low single digits.
Needless to say, Shilling’s bullishness has gotten plenty of sustenance from central banks throughout the world that have been pushing rates lower, not higher, including into negative territory.
“We’ve been pretty lonely as Treasury bond bulls for 35 years, but we’re comfortable being in the minority and tend to make more money in that position than by running with the herd,” Shilling wrote recently.
Read Mauldin’s Tumblr post for a deep dive into Shilling’s thinking about why the bull market in bonds has staying power.
Though Shilling doesn’t attempt to forecast the economy, a piece by CNBC.com economics writer John Schoen argues that some economic charts are “flashing recession signals” after seven years of economic recovery.
“For now, much of the economic data is pointing to continued, if somewhat weak, growth,” writes Schoen. “Companies are hiring, wages are rising slowly and consumers are spending.”
But Schoen points out that belt-tightening by businesses on investment in new equipment and buildings could be a sign of a deeper slowdown ahead, according to economists at Credit Suisse.
“In fact, the last time business investment contracted over a prolonged period, without a recession following soon, was in 1986-87,” he adds. “That investment pullback also followed a sharp drop in oil prices, much like the recent collapse in spending and investment on oil and gas drilling.
He adds that investment in transportation equipment has also stalled, after a big run-up tied to the rapid growth of oil and gas exploration and drilling that preceded the crash in oil prices in 2014.
With pipeline capacity constrained, much of the new production of oil and natural gas had to be shipped by rail or trucks. But the bust in the oil patch has brought a pullback in transportation investment.
Schoen concedes that some of the slowdown may be tied to general uncertainty about the election cycle, which has prompted many businesses to take a wait-and-see attitude before committing dollars to new equipment or breaking ground on new buildings.
Seems that these conditions have only been helpful to Shilling’s favorite asset class.
0 comments:
Publicar un comentario