Trump and Xi are the wrong men at the wrong time
The world needs far-sighted leadership but the US and Chinese leaders are unlikely to provide it
Gideon Rachman
© Ann Kiernan“I’ve just emerged from nearly three hours of briefing and discussions with the President of the Republic and the intelligence and security services.
In my 50 years, I have rarely felt such a sense of vertigo.
Vertigo at the gravity of the situations in the Middle East and Ukraine, and at the predatory madness driving the world toward chaos.”
That was Guillaume Lacroix, a French politician, speaking late last week.
He is not alone in his alarm.
Dark warnings about the risk of war have been emanating from European capitals for weeks.
The alarm bells ringing in Silicon Valley about AI have been heard around the world.
An energy crunch is building.
The bond markets are signalling a possible debt crisis.
This is a fraught moment in world affairs.
In theory, that makes it fortunate that the leaders of the two most powerful nations will meet later this week.
There is a huge amount for Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to discuss: wars, energy, AI, trade, Taiwan, the White House ballroom.
But the deep suspicion between the US and China — and the limitations of the two leaders involved — make it highly unlikely that there will be real progress on any of the big issues.
One of the main reasons that the US and China continue to circle each other warily — without engaging on issues of common interest — is their continuing struggle over trade.
When Beijing first hit back against the tariffs Trump announced on April 2 2025, the US was dismissive. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury secretary — always fond of gambling metaphors — claimed that Beijing was playing poker “with a pair of twos”.
In reality, the restrictions that China imposed on the exports of rare earths and critical minerals looked more like a straight flush.
The production lines of key US industries were struggling within weeks.
China and the US signed a trade truce in South Korea in October 2025, which may be renewed in Washington.
But the exchange of fire over trade increased mistrust on both sides.
Both Beijing and Washington are now on guard against any form of co-operation that could be turned against them in the future.
With mutual trust almost non-existent, there is little chance of the US and China working together effectively on the common threats that transcend national borders — such as rogue AI or climate change.
America’s leading AI companies are pleading for a joint US-China approach to regulation.
Bessent says the two nations have just agreed to an AI dialogue.
But discussions will be limited by the inherent rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
Trump maintains “We’re leading China in AI” and says he wants to “keep it that way because whoever wins AI, wins.”
For its part, the Chinese side is suspicious that calls emanating from the US for a joint approach to AI are an effort to lock in America’s narrow lead in a defining technology.
Recent articles in the Chinese official media have focused on the threat that AI might pose to the continuing rule of the Communist Party — rather than to humanity as a whole.
Trump likes to dismiss any idea he finds inconvenient as a “hoax”.
That is the word he used about threats posed by AI.
It is also the word he has long employed about climate change.
The US president has instead prioritised using America’s ample oil and gas to pursue “American energy dominance” — and boasted about his withdrawal from the Paris climate accord and “dozens of other Radical Left international climate accords.”
That policy has allowed China to cement its own dominance of the industries that underpin renewable energy — such as batteries, solar panels, wind turbines and EVs.
Both countries are threatened by the energy supply crunch caused by war in the Middle East.
China has dabbled in Middle East peacemaking in the past and is a major oil importer from the region.
But even if the US wanted Beijing’s help in ending the conflict — which is unlikely — Xi has no reason to stick his hand into the bin fire that Trump has started in the Gulf.
The scope for US-Chinese co-operation over the Ukraine war is even more limited.
Beijing continues to play a crucial role in keeping the Russian economy afloat.
Rather than playing a role as a peacemaker, there remains a risk that China will initiate a third major global conflict by invading or blockading Taiwan.
The US is struggling in Iran and American weapons stockpiles have run down.
Unlike President Joe Biden, Trump has downplayed the idea that the US would fight for Taiwan.
All that might increase the temptation for Xi to make his move soon.
On the other hand, the Chinese leader will have noted how the US and Russia have struggled to win wars against weaker nations, which may incline him to concentrate on increasing political pressure on Taiwan instead.
Both Trump and Xi love pomp and ceremony.
There will be plenty of that in Washington — but there is likely to be little serious engagement on the issues that matter to the world.
This will not be a modern equivalent of the Reagan-Gorbachev Reykjavik summit of 1986, where the two leaders discussed radical nuclear disarmament and glimpsed an end to the cold war.
Trump and Xi represent rival nations.
But, unfortunately, the two leaders have many of the same flaws — narcissism, nationalism, narrowness of vision.
The world needs far-sighted leaders.
That is not what is on offer.
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