That Time Keynes Had a Point

By John Mauldin

“Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”

•John Maynard Keynes


I begin with this Keynes quote because, while true, it doesn’t go far enough.

The problem isn’t simply defunct economists or “scribblers of a few years back.” We are in the grip of economists who, far from being defunct, hold great power. Whether they hear voices in the air (or Twitter), I can’t say, but they are indeed madmen in authority.

Not all economists are in that category. Many provide valuable insight or are at worst harmless. They don’t pretend they can change human nature or prevent the inevitable. Unfortunately, some economists do believe those things. Worse, they are in places from which they can wreak havoc, and they are.

Last weekend I received two emails referring me to articles about the economics profession. They came within minutes of each other, from two different associates who don’t know each other. That seemed like an odd coincidence but it stirred my writing juices.

Please note, I don’t agree with everything in the articles I’ll describe today.

They are nonetheless important because they try, at least, to describe and possibly fix the problem Keynes identified. We have to address them, not just economically but politically. We can’t just put our heads in the sand and think this will go away.

The whole debt bubble, the income and wealth inequality angst, a growing deficit which will get worse after the next recession, and lack of economic understanding among voters is all coming home to roost. Better to think about that now, while we can still act and maybe even change things.

False Assumptions

The first item is a July 2019 TED talk by Nick Hanauer, a self-described Seattle “plutocrat” who founded and sold several companies. He is now a venture capital investor. Hanauer is far to my left politically, but his thinking reminds me a bit of Ray Dalio, and as we will see, some of the proponents of neo-Keynesian “new economics.”

Hanauer’s latest TED talk is titled “The dirty secret of capitalism—and a new way forward.” You can either watch a video or read the transcript. He begins by describing the widening inequality problem we have discussed before, then quickly zeroes in on what he thinks is the problem: neoliberal economics.

Economics has been described as the dismal science, and for good reason, because as much as it is taught today, it isn't a science at all, in spite of all of the dazzling mathematics. In fact, a growing number of academics and practitioners have concluded that neoliberal economic theory is dangerously wrong and that today's growing crises of rising inequality and growing political instability are the direct result of decades of bad economic theory.

What we now know is that the economics that made me so rich isn't just wrong, it's backwards, because it turns out it isn't capital that creates economic growth, it's people; and it isn't self-interest that promotes the public good, it's reciprocity; and it isn't competition that produces our prosperity, it's cooperation.

What we can now see is that an economics that is neither just nor inclusive can never sustain the high levels of social cooperation necessary to enable a modern society to thrive.

I know, those are fighting words to most free-market defenders, but hear this out. Hanauer blames the sad state of modern economics on three false assumptions.

First, it isn’t true the market is an efficient equilibrium system. You may have read my “sandpile” letter that is one of my most popular ever. I reprint it every so often, most recently here. It describes how our astronomically complex modern economy is anything but an equilibrium. It is a growing sandpile whose collapse is certain. As Hyman Minsky wrote, stability breeds instability.

If, as too many economists believe, you think you can manage an economy toward equilibrium, you simply help the sandpile grow bigger so its eventual collapse is even more violent. That’s how we get crises like 2008, and the one we will have again in due course.

The second false assumption is that price always equals value. That’s the heart of the efficient market hypothesis, that stock prices always reflect all available information. Clearly, they don’t, since we have all seen both overvalued and undervalued markets.

In fact, we have economist-run institutions like the Federal Reserve working to make sure prices don’t equal value. They intentionally distort prices, starting with the most important one: the price of money, what we call “interest rates,” with all kinds of harmful effects (and often benefits to those who already own assets).

The third false assumption is that humans are rational, utility-maximizing machines who look out for our own interests first. It’s just not true. Humans are social animals, and we will, in the right conditions, sacrifice our own interests for others. Soldiers don’t heroically jump on grenades because they’re selfish. Parents and friends often sacrifice for their children and their friends. People accept lower returns to invest in ways they think improve the world, or pursue behaviors they feel are in the common and general interest but not their own individual interests. Happens all the time.

If we were all so naturally self-maximizing, there would be no such thing as love, which is a choice to place someone else’s good ahead of your own. If you have some hidden selfish motive, it’s not really love, is it? Not in the way any religion I know describes it.

Yet many economists persist in believing we are all competitive, all the time, and this somehow leads to equilibrium and prosperity. That is false and if it is your base assumption, all your other answers are going to be wrong. This is not an embrace of human nature, but a denial of it.

Meanwhile, another Seattle billionaire had some words on the same subject recently. Bill Gates didn’t say exactly “economists know nothing,” but that’s clearly what he meant in this Quartz interview.

“Too bad economists don’t actually understand macroeconomics,” the Microsoft co-founder said. Asked what he meant by that, Gates continued:

“It’s not like physics where you take certain inputs and you predict certain outputs. Will interest rates ever return to normal, and why aren’t they returning to normal? You won’t get a consensus between economists quite the way that if you dropped a ball out your window and called up physicists and asked, ‘What the hell happened?’ There’s so many factors including what [economist John Maynard] Keynes called ‘animal spirits’ in the economic equation that we don’t have predictability.

Even today, people are still arguing about what happened in 2008. So it’s even harder to look forward. [Look at] the role of the bond rating agencies in 2008, which is completely unreformed. Why would that be? Well, there must be a lack of consensus.”

Both Hanauer and Gates make a point. Economists began assuming equilibrium must exist early in the 20th century. General equilibrium was wonderful because it let them model the economy on paper (and later, computers). Economists have physics envy. In essence, they assume away whatever doesn’t fit the model. Unsurprisingly, the models don’t work when put to the test, because the assumptions are not anchored in reality.

The entire premise of equilibrium economics is false. The world is a complex system. To model it requires complexity mathematics and theory. Sadly, but not unsurprisingly, we are decades away (if ever) from actually being able to model the economy as long as one continues to assume equilibrium at some point.

Of course we can make observations and theories and propose policies.

But we shouldn’t do so under the illusion that some mathematical model allows us to know what we’re doing. “Lies, damn lies and models” should have been the quote. So when Gates and Hanauer and others, including me, say that economists don’t understand economics, our real point is that they rely on incorrect models and assumptions.

It gets worse when the politicians get economists to create models for them. These economists are every bit as trained as any circus animal and they don’t even need a whip. The economists’ assumptions inevitably lead to the conclusions the politician wants. Of course, they all have “neutral data and facts.” What would a model be without facts and data?

Necessary Debate

The second article came to me from a person who thought it ridiculous. He sent it along with a lengthy preface warning about its (in his view, false) claims. I appreciated the thought but I am also trying very hard to break out of the tribal box. I now often say that I’m neither Republican nor Democrat, but American. I don’t automatically reject ideas simply because of their origin. If I reject them, it’s because I have studied them and concluded they are wrong.

That said, this one has a lot of problems but is still worth reading. The author is Jared Bernstein, an economist who once advised Vice President Joe Biden. (I’ve quoted him before.) In this piece he describes what he calls a “new economics” that will create a more “just” America.

Like Dalio and Hanauer, I think Bernstein correctly identifies many of our problems. It is not the case that everything would be peachy if government just got out of the way; we have deeper issues. I completely endorse Bernstein’s first sentence: “The American economy has some serious, structural problems—and the economists are partly to blame.” He goes on:

It is not a coincidence that the new economics is in ascendency at this moment. Though by some measures, inequality has not grown much in recent years, it remains at levels as high as the late 1920s, which, for the record, didn’t end well. In one of the most disturbing developments emerging from recent research, the inequality of income and wealth is increasingly associated with the inequality of life expectancy.

The assumption that self-interested firms would self-regulate gave rise to repeated rounds of deregulation that gave us what I call the “shampoo economy”: bubble, bust, repeat. The old economics wrongly claimed we couldn’t have persistently low unemployment without spiraling inflation, yet that’s precisely what we’ve enjoyed in recent years.

In other words, the new economics isn’t arising just because we want “better” outcomes from our markets. It’s also arising because a lot of the old stuff has turned out to be just plain wrong.

That is mostly true but I think it’s because deregulation hasn’t gone far enough. Large companies use political influence to have government protect them from competition. The result is a bunch of “zombies” engaged in counterproductive activities that market discipline would quickly send to the graveyard, were it allowed to work.

The solution, in my opinion, is not for government to further regulate private business, but for it to stop picking winners and losers. Consumers could then decide what works. Of course, there’s room for reasonable regulation; we all want safe vehicles, clean food, etc. But regulations should promote competition, not suppress it.

I think many of Bernstein’s policy ideas won’t have the desired results, and some would be disastrous, but these are debates we need to have. We will achieve better results if we engage in them civilly and sincerely. That is hard in today’s polarized environment… but avoiding it will be even harder.

Keynesian Sense?

That brings us back to Lord Keynes. Many now regard him as one of the “defunct economists” he himself blamed for the problems of his time. In certain quarters, “Keynesianism” is as unpalatable as socialism. In fact, while Keynes was a leftist by today’s standards, he wasn’t against capitalism.

Recently I ran across a 2009 article by Bruce Bartlett with the provocative headline, Keynes Was Really a Conservative. That overstates it, but Keynes was more conservative than you might think. Here’s Bartlett.

Keynes completely understood the central role of profit in the capitalist system. This is one reason why he was so strongly opposed to deflation and why, at the end of the day, his cure for unemployment was to restore profits to employers. He also appreciated the importance of entrepreneurship: "If the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism falters… enterprise will fade and die." And he knew that the general business environment was critical for growth; hence business confidence was an important economic factor. As Keynes acknowledged, "Economic prosperity is… dependent on a political and social atmosphere which is congenial to the average businessman."

Indeed, the whole point of The General Theory was about preserving what was good and necessary in capitalism, as well as protecting it against authoritarian attacks, by separating microeconomics, the economics of prices and the firm, from macroeconomics, the economics of the economy as a whole. In order to preserve economic freedom in the former, which Keynes thought was critical for efficiency, increased government intervention in the latter was unavoidable [at least to him]. While pure free marketers lament this development, the alternative, as Keynes saw it, was the complete destruction of capitalism and its replacement by some form of socialism.

"It is certain," Keynes wrote, "that the world will not much longer tolerate the unemployment which… is associated—and, in my opinion, inevitably associated—with present-day capitalistic individualism. But it may be possible by a right analysis of the problem to cure the disease whilst preserving efficiency and freedom."

In Keynes' view, it was sufficient for government intervention to be limited to the macroeconomy—that is, to use monetary and fiscal policy to maintain total spending (effective demand), which would both sustain growth and eliminate political pressure for radical actions to reduce unemployment. "It is not the ownership of the instruments of production which is important for the State to assume," Keynes wrote. "If the State is able to determine the aggregate amount of resources devoted to augmenting the instruments and the basic rate of reward to those who own them, it will have accomplished all that is necessary."

One of Keynes' students, Arthur Plumptre, explained Keynes' philosophy this way. In his view, Hayek's "road to serfdom" could as easily come from a lack of government as from too much. If high unemployment was allowed to continue for too long, Keynes thought the inevitable result would be socialism—total government control—and the destruction of political freedom. This highly undesirable result had to be resisted and could only be held at bay if rigid adherence to laissez-faire gave way, but not too much. As Plumptre put it, Keynes "tried to devise the minimum government controls that would allow free enterprise to work."

There’s actually a lot to like here. A government that focuses on keeping the “macro” playing field level while letting producers and consumers control the “micro” economy would be a vast improvement over what we have now.

That last quote from Plumptre is well said. Keynes wanted “the minimum government controls that would allow free enterprise to work.” He sought a balance between central planning and anarchy. He saw a lot of room between the extremes.

Likewise, by establishing conditions in which market forces could work, Keynes sought to prevent the kind of radical policies some of his modern followers want. The crazy ideas we now fear—negative rates, MMT and the rest—didn’t appear spontaneously. Their proponents see them as solutions to real problems. These ideas would go nowhere if the economy functioned better.

Today we’re still seeking the balance Keynes wanted. We need an economics profession with clear thinkers. They’re out there. We have to amplify their voices.

The Bond Master Class

I want to call your attention to a very important announcement made by our own Jared Dillian this week. He has launched a wonderful creation called The Bond Masterclass, an entire education on bonds and bond investing. It covers all types of bonds, how they actually work, how to invest in them, and a lot more.

Jared’s mission here is to educate people about bonds. He is bringing a wealth of expertise and experience to the table, and one that he has the training and most importantly the ability to clearly and simply write about.

Bonds and fixed income alternatives are essential parts of a portfolio. You need to understand bonds. Knowledge is power and bond knowledge is added dexterity—and added ammunition in your investing arsenal.

I will be in Houston next week with my partners at SMH, going over new offerings and meeting potential investors. I’m really quite excited about it, plus Texas barbecue too.

Monday and Tuesday were busy and exhausting. Tuesday evening found me in a room with 11 other people celebrating Danielle DiMartino Booth’s birthday. I have a reputation for arranging good dinner parties with interesting people (well-deserved, I humbly point out). I knew a few people there, but many were new to me. Unsurprisingly for Danielle, Federal Reserve watchers and aficionados dominated the room. Some were well out of my league, and obviously on a first name basis with current Fed officials.

Randall Forsyth of Barron’s was on my side of the table, and it became almost humorous as they would simply say “Chatham House Rules,” looking at Randall and I specifically, then going on to offer some juicy tidbit. My great friend Lakshman Achuthan, head of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, sat between us and I kept leaning over and asking, “Did you understand that?” If he said no, I didn’t feel too bad about asking for clarification.

It was like a master class and I was grateful to be at the table. As we walked out, Lak and I both remarked about how much we learned. But then he turned to me and said, “But I don’t think I feel any better.” I just laughed and agreed.

I have often written that the Fed is making it up as they go along. It was never more evident than during that evening. Be afraid, be very afraid…

And with that I will hit the send button. Enjoy the week and find a few reasons to take some friends out for great conversation. It just gives everyone more energy.

Your wondering which path we will choose analyst,

John Mauldin
Co-Founder, Mauldin Economics

Recessions have become rarer and more scary

A hard to predict financial crisis is the most probable source of the next downturn

Robin Harding

Desert Recession Sculptures
© James Ferguson

The world has seldom been worse-equipped to fight a recession. Yet it has never had fewer recessions to fight. That makes the next global downturn difficult to imagine but it will most likely be a traumatic and unlooked-for event, more like the sudden outbreak of a new disease than the annual onset of flu.

Recession alarms sounded loudly this summer thanks to an inversion of the US yield curve, which means rates on shorter-term debt are higher than those on longer-term ones. That came as the current economic expansion broke records and we experienced a global slide in measures of manufacturing sentiment.

With interest rates trapped at zero or close to it across much of the industrialised world, central banks have little room to respond. Any slump in economic activity is a frightening prospect.

Possibly, this bout of global weakness will be allowed to spiral into a US and global downturn.

Yet that would defy the pattern of recessions in recent decades, which has changed both in cause and frequency. They are rarer and, when they do begin, the spark is more often a financial meltdown than sliding business activity or an economic overheat.

Recession predictors have always had a terrible record but in the past, stopped-clock doom-mongers only had to wait a few years for their moment of glory. Now redemption can take decades. At 122 months, the current US expansion is the longest on record, just ahead of the period from 1991 to 2001.

The volatility of US output growth is lower than it has ever been

Former US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen argues it is a “myth” that economic expansions die of old age. Longer expansions mean recessions have become rarer. In the 35 years after the second world war, there were eight US recessions; in the 35 years following that, there were four. Trends in other developed countries are similar.

In the 1990s and 2000s, economists used to talk about a “great moderation”, the idea that output had become significantly less volatile since the early 1980s. But that proved embarrassing after the 2008 financial crisis and the phrase went away. The evidence since then, however, suggests the phenomenon is real. The volatility of quarterly growth in the US is now lower than it has ever been.

Several explanations have been put forward. One is the decline of inventory cycles in manufacturing: the use of just-in-time techniques has reduced the need to adjust stockpiles.

Another is the economy’s structural shift towards services. Demand for spinning classes, management consultancy, karaoke and plastic surgery may fluctuate with the overall economy, but unlike steel mills and automobile factories, they have no great cyclical dynamics of their own.

A third and probably more important explanation is the success of central banks in stabilising inflation and averting boom and bust cycles. Most US recessions in the postwar years began when the economy got too hot, inflation picked up and the Fed increased interest rates to choke off demand. It is now decades since that last occurred. More recently, central banks have struggled with a lack of inflation, not too much.

The current US expansion is now the longest on record - but growth has been anaemic in comparison with previous booms

When policymakers do not fear inflation, they can provide stimulus to offset a slowdown.

Indeed the risk is rather that they lack the ammunition to counter real shocks such as Brexit or US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China. But they are certainly trying. The Fed is cutting interest rates, mirrored by India, Thailand, the Philippines and New Zealand among others in August alone. Fiscal stimulus is on the way in South Korea and the UK. China is set to do more.

This is where many recession predictions go wrong. When the threat is obvious, the policy response arrives in advance. A bet that the current global slowdown will turn into global recession is in part a bet that these current stimulus efforts will fail.

It is easy to follow this argument into a fallacy: policymakers will act to prevent a recession, so no serious recession is possible. In the early 2000s there was plenty of hubris along these lines — but 2008-09 was a brutal corrective. That recession began in the financial sector, with subprime loans and housing, just as the recession of 2001 began with the bursting of the dotcom bubble.

The business cycle may have damped but the financial cycle of Hyman Minsky is still with us.

Finance is the most probable source of the next downturn, when it comes.

If real economic fluctuations are hard to predict, timing a financial crisis is next to impossible.

Analysts may spot imbalances in markets but they can only guess at when and how they will unwind. There are some signs we are late in the current cycle. Asset valuations are high by historic standards. Private debt has risen a lot in China and some peripheral economies. The Trump administration is rolling back financial regulation. It all increases risk. But the signs of stress that often precede a crisis — wild ebullience or rising defaults — are not obvious.

None of this means a recession will not occur — unpredictability is the whole point — but based on the pattern of recent downturns, there is little sign that one is already under way. What is certain is that an economic slump under present conditions would be exceptionally hard to fight. That is likely to be the pattern for future recessions: rare and terrifying.

How to Fix the Global Retirement Crisis

By Reshma Kapadia 

Illustration by Andrea Ucini

The idea of moving into a nursing home is abhorrent to most Americans, but many older Swedes have to lobby to get into one. Aging parents in the U.S. may remind their adult children to visit them, but China requires it by law. Visit playgrounds in Japan and you’ll find elder-friendly fitness equipment instead of monkey bars and slides. We are at the beginning of a global aging boom—and countries all over the world are facing the same challenges. Some are coming up with creative ways to address the looming retirement crisis.

 There are more adults over 65 than there are children under 5, globally. And by 2050, one out of every six people—or 1.6 billion—will be over the age of 65, according to the United Nations’ latest estimates. That will be a big problema.

Cultural norms, demographics, and economic and political systems vary, but the challenge is the same: How do graying countries find fiscally sustainable ways to support longer life spans without bankrupting governments, overburdening the young, or abandoning those who need care?

Japan is at the leading edge of the trend—28% of its population is already 65 or older—forcing it to tackle the challenge head on. China has a bit more time, but not much: Its society is aging faster than any other. Life expectancies lengthened by 30 years within a half-century. That’s roughly half the time in which Western industrialized countries saw that happen, giving China far less time to prepare. Even Sweden, which regularly ranks high on retirement-preparedness lists and as one of the happiest places for older adults, faces budgetary pressures as those over 80 become the fastest-growing part of the population.

“I’d love to tell you that dramatic cultural differences dictate differences in investment and interest, but ageism is a global challenge. If we don’t tackle investing in prevention and wellness programs and extending the possibility of work lives, keeping people active and socially engaged, the costs are potentially overwhelming,” says Paul Irving, chairman of the Milken Institute Center for the Future of Aging. “Population aging is something we can either ignore at our peril, or we can embrace the reality and change our policies, practices, norms, and culture and capitalize on it.”

The magnitude of the demographic change is forcing a reckoning. At this summer’s G-20 meeting, the world’s top policy makers for the first time identified aging as a risk that needs to be addressed. No country has developed the perfect elixir, but a look around the world offers glimpses of what is working—as well as pain points that can inform how the U.S. tackles its own aging boom. Barron’s tapped policy watchers, academics, and experts on the aging industry globally to see which countries offer lessons for the U.S. in tackling various facets of aging, including working longer, retirement savings, long-term care, and caregiving.

A Guide to Working Longer

Japan has traditionally celebrated residents’ 100th birthdays by sending them a sake bowl. Originally made of silver, the bowls are now silver-plated, as the crush of centenarians strains the budget. Japan is ground zero for aging: It has the world’s longest life expectancy and a historically low fertility rate, which both contribute to labor shortages and put intense pressure on its pension system.

It also boasts one of the world’s highest labor-force participation rates among older adults; 59% of men ages 65 to 69 are still working, compared with just 38% in the U.S. “Necessity often drives innovation,” says Catherine Collinson, head of the nonprofit Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies. “There’s a tremendous sense of urgency, given the extreme nature of its aging population and labor shortages that have prompted them to rethink working lives versus retirement, and seek out innovative solutions.”

Japan has chipped away at the generosity of its national pension system for decades and has been gradually increasing the eligibility age—currently 65, though Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering raising it above 70. The retirement age in Corporate Japan is also changing. Mandatory retirement age used to be nearly a decade beyond the average life expectancy; but now, the retirement age is 60, and life expectancy is 84.

Japan has been providing incentives for companies to retain retiree-age employees, and it also requires companies to rehire those who still want to work after 60, though it can be at lower wages and responsibility levels.

But money is not the primary reason many Japanese work well past 65. Social engagement and a sense of ikigai—a view that one’s life is still worth living—rank high among the motivations to remain on the job, says Takaoh Miyagawa, an aging and retirement expert at life insurer Aegon Sony Life in Tokyo.  Consider Kamikatsu, a rural mountain village with a rapidly aging population. The residents revitalized its economy by creating a cottage industry—picking the colorful leaves that grow around town and selling them as garnish for Japanese cuisine and decorations. Kato Manufacturing hires retirees to work on the weekends and holidays to keep factories running continuously. Convenience stores and fast-food chains have proactively hired the elderly, and small businesses that have struggled to find talent amid a national labor shortage also have tapped retirees.

But Corporate Japan isn’t fully on board. Nearly 70% of older people want to work beyond the age of 65, but only 20% are actually employed, according to the AARP, the U.S. organization that focuses on issues facing retirees. The Japanese government is trying to change that, making expanding employment opportunities for older adults a key component of its national strategy to revitalize the economy. Its Silver Human Resource Centers offer short-term job opportunities in the community. They tend to be low-wage positions, but the program still represents the kind of strategy that the U.S. could emulate to help experienced workers remain productive and engaged, says Ramsey Alwin, director of AARP’s financial resilience thought leadership. Another way for Japan—and the U.S.—to employ older individuals is by offering more flexibility, opportunities to refresh skills, and lifelong learning, which would also help companies woo coveted younger talent, Alwin adds.

Takeaway: It’s an old, but true, bit of advice: When people work longer, they can continue to save, and their savings don’t have to stretch as far. But what’s possibly more important is the notion of ikigai: When older adults stay active and engaged longer, it lowers health-care costs.

The U.S. could incentivize companies to hire the elderly, as well as devise a system to pair them with work and volunteering opportunities.

A Guide to Funding Retirement

Getting people to work longer is one way that countries can improve the living standards of the old without increasing the burden on the young. The other is to help employees save more during their working years. No country has perfectly balanced the two, but Australia’s approach is one of the best, says Richard Jackson, founder of the Global Aging Institute. Indeed, Australia is among the highest-ranked developed economies, judged by the fiscal sustainability and income adequacy of its retirement system, based on the institute’s research.

The U.S. has a problem on the fiscal sustainability front. Social Security is a major source of retirement income for a large swath of Americans, but the trust for those payments will be depleted by 2035 unless changes are made. Australia once faced a similar situation. In the mid-1980s, it warned its citizens of the tremendous economic risk ahead if its government-funded pension didn’t morph into one largely funded by private savings.

In the midst of Australia’s last recession—28 years ago—the nation pushed through radical reforms and introduced a mandatory, fully funded employer pension system, known as the superannuation guarantee, or the “Super.” The pay-as-you-go account, launched in 1992, required a mandatory contribution from employers; it’s currently 9.5% but will rise to 12% of employees’ income in 2025.

Australia also instituted a means-tested, flat-rate Age Pension to ensure that everyone has enough income to sustain a basic living standard. This tops off any Super accounts that fall below a certain level. About three-quarters of retirees still get some benefit from the government. But by 2030, as Super accounts mature, only a single-digit share of the population will need the state benefit, reducing the burden on the country’s finances, estimates Pablo Antolin-Nicolas, a pension expert and principal economist at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

For average wage earners in Australia, the system will replace an estimated 43% of their income in retirement. That is slightly lower than in the U.S. But the system also creates a safety net that doesn’t exist in America, by giving everyone, even those who have taken time out for caregiving, a basic retirement income. Not having access to a work-based retirement plan is a major reason that some Americans don’t have enough saved for retirement.

Australia also gradually has been raising the age at which people can tap the Super. For those born before July 1960, it’s 55. For those born after June 1964, it’s 60. Australia is increasing the eligibility age for the Age Pension, too, from 65 to 67 by 2023. In addition, it is more difficult for Australians to take loans against their Supers than it is for Americans to borrow from their 401(k) accounts.

Australia still has things to work out. Like the U.S., it is trying to find the best way to convert savings into income in retirement. While the Land Down Under has offered tax incentives for retirees to shift their Super accounts into a lifetime stream of income, many still opt for a lump sum. But Antolin says the government is working with the private sector on a solution, focusing on a hybrid strategy that includes an annuity that starts generating income at 80 or 85 years of age, plus a withdrawal strategy to give individuals financial flexibility earlier in retirement.

Takeaway: Australia’s bold moves to put its retirement system on a more fiscally sound footing offer some ideas for the U.S. Among them: the value of gradually boosting the eligibility age for a pension and for tapping the Super; ways to keep people from raiding their savings; and, most importantly, a blueprint for creating a means-tested retirement safety net, alongside a pay-as-you go system with a substantial contribution rate and incentives for people to save even more.

No-Guilt Long-Term Care

Long-term care can drain a lifetime’s worth of savings in the U.S., not to mention the energy of family members who often provide the bulk of that care. But in Sweden, the government itself offers universal long-term care. The nordic nation, which puts a high value on individual independence, doesn’t have the cultural expectation that children will provide caregiving for their parents and other relatives, as is the norm in countries such as China.

In fact, only 5% of Sweden’s elderly live in multigenerational households, compared with 20% in other developed countries, including the U.S. and Australia, and more than 60% in countries such as Mexico, China, and India. Sweden also has the second-highest female labor-participation rate—just behind Iceland—which means that women, who bear the brunt of the caregiving duties throughout the world, aren’t readily available to do so.

“Everyone puts their parents in a nursing home, and it is also what the parents want,” says Marta Szebehely, professor of social work at Stockholm University, referring to older adults who need substantial assistance. Indeed, a 2015 survey showed that the majority of Swedes favored moving to a residential care facility if they needed aid more than twice a day.

But long-term care facilities in Sweden look different than nursing homes in the U.S. Whereas the model in the U.S. has typically been a hospital, in Sweden it’s the family home, Szebehely says. Facilities tend to be smaller, with nine to 12 apartments along a corridor that share a common area where people can take meals. But apartments also have their own kitchens, even for dementia patients, so that family members can come and cook for them. The smaller units also makes it easier for care givers to know the residents and provide the flexibility to personalize care. All care, whether home-based or in a residential facility, is regulated, unlike in the U.S., where regulation outside nursing homes is spotty.

Sweden isn’t exempt from challenges. Spending has not kept pace with the aging population, straining the system and reducing the number of available spots in residential facilities. Cutbacks mean that some older adults can end up waiting beyond the point when they feel they can live safely on their own, Szebehely observes.

Takeaway: The U.S. might benefit from developing long-term elder-care facilities modeled on the home, to allow personalization and flexibility. And finding ways to help Americans finance that long-term care is crucial.

A Guide to Caregiving

Whereas family bonds are voluntary, not obligatory, in Sweden, China has a very different approach. Filial piety is a central tenet of Confucianism and is entrenched in the culture; China passed a law in 2013 requiring children to visit aging parents.

While every society struggles with caring for the elderly, China gives new meaning to the words “caregiving crisis.” First, there are the sheer numbers: By 2030, 360 million Chinese—more than currently live in the U.S.—will be older than 60.

Already, no other country has to cope with so many families supported by so few children—a byproduct of the country’s former One Child Policy. The policy, in effect from 1979 through 2015, also has contributed to a gender imbalance, with researchers estimating there will be 30 million more men of marriageable age than women by 2020. Chinese women also now have higher levels of education and thus better career opportunities than prior generations did, making it harder for them to take on caregiving duties.

“There’s a deeply entrenched system that to be a good person is equivalent to being a good son or daughter. This young generation desperately wants to look after their parents, but there’s a deep inability to do so,” says Zak Dychtwald, founder of research and consulting firm Young China Group. “It’s an economic question, a political question, and a spiritual question.”
Forty years ago, before China shifted to a market economy from a communist system, about 80% of the population lived in the countryside. Older adults lived with their families. Mass migration to the city has changed the family dynamic very quickly, says Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California, Irvine, and a former director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy. Now, more than half of older Chinese adults—100 million—don’t live with their children.

With fewer family members tending to the elderly, China is just starting to build a long-term care industry. The government has prioritized improving health care for older adults, including long-term and rehab services. It has also called for the creation of at least one professional nursing home in every prefectural-level city. China has introduced policies to integrate community facilities like day-care centers for seniors, nursing homes, and home-based care at the neighborhood level to fill caregiving gaps.

In addition, Beijing is encouraging elder-care facilities to adopt technology, including tele-medicine, sensors and other monitoring devices to keep seniors safe, and beds that can turn into wheelchairs to alleviate the need for assistance getting up and about, says Timothy Ma Kam-Wah, the founding executive director of Senior Citizen Home Safety Association in Hong Kong.

These options have yet to gain traction.

China has been piloting programs that offer caregiver leave for only children, but take-up is low, as is the use of day-care centers. And while robots pop up in senior-care facilities, they are primarily offering entertainment.

Much of the development so far has been focused on cities and is not affordable to the masses, says Vivian Lou, an associate professor at the University of Hong Kong, where she focuses on caregiving. Adult children whose parents live in cities use technology to order their parents rides or groceries, and employ devices to help monitor them, but Lou worries about rural areas, as well as what happens when parents need help with feeding, bathing, or toileting.

Hiring live-in domestic help is expensive, as much as $1,000 a month in cities—that’s roughly what a recent Chinese university graduate working in financial services for a multinational corporation earns. “Very few can afford domestic help,” Lou says. “The caregiving burden will emerge as a social issue in five years and reach a peak within a decade.”

That could push China to take more-aggressive actions, potentially offering the U.S. some ideas as it faces the same challenges, especially in tackling the urban-rural divide for elder care. “The risk of aging breaking both the U.S. and China and upending world economies is huge for both countries,” says the Milken Institute’s Irving. “If there’s an argument for a collaborative relationship between the U.S. and China, aging might be it.”

Takeaway: Coordinating home-based, residential, and community-based care can help reduce care costs. And while robots probably won’t replace human care givers soon, age-related technology can make their jobs easier.

The Real Reason Trump Won’t Attack Iran

Starting a war to protect oil markets will only backfire.

By Emily Meierding
Iranians burn an image of U.S. President Donald Trump during a demonstration outside the former U.S. embassy headquarters in Tehran on May 9, 2018.
Iranians burn an image of U.S. President Donald Trump during a demonstration outside the former U.S. embassy headquarters in Tehran on May 9, 2018. ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images

Iran is widely assumed to be responsible for last weekend’s bombardment in Saudi Arabia, in which drone and missile attacks struck two critical Saudi oil facilities, cutting the country’s oil production by 5.7 million barrels per day and reducing global oil supplies by 5 percent. If the Trump administration decides to retaliate militarily for these attacks, the ensuing confrontation would likely to be labeled another U.S. oil war in the Middle East.

This would be a serious mischaracterization, however. In this case, oil interests are far more likely to prevent war than provoke it. 
A war in the Persian Gulf would profoundly destabilize the global oil system. If the Trump administration strikes Iran, unilaterally or in conjunction with Saudi Arabia, and targets the state’s oil facilities, these attacks will take more resources offline. Although Iran’s oil output has declined significantly since the United States reimposed sanctions in 2018, the country still produces more than 2 million barrels of oil per day and exports about half a million barrels per day of petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas to a variety of resource consumers. 
Airstrikes would remove these supplies for the market, while other oil producers are struggling to compensate for the loss of Saudi resources.

Tehran has also threatened to retaliate for U.S. or Saudi military action. If the Iranians targets Saudi oil installations, it could incapacitate additional facilities or interrupt repairs at Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities. The initial attacks on these installations caused far more damage than many industry analyses anticipated, striking core processing facilities, including stabilization towers and storage tanks, with pinpoint accuracy.

Even if Tehran was not directly responsible for these attacks, Saudi officials have that the aggressors employed Iranian weapons. If these claims are accurate, Tehran has the capacity to inflict substantial further damage on the Saudi oil industry. Although Saudi Arabia has presumably reinforced its air defense system after this weekend’s attacks, the kingdom’s ability to protect critical oil facilities from drones and low-flying missiles is now uncertain.

Iran could also respond to U.S. and Saudi strikes by attempting to interrupt oil transportation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy has demonstrated its willingness to seize foreign tankers in the Persian Gulf, as it did on Monday and this July. The corps could also disable oil tankers with mines and other explosives, mimicking the attacks that occurred earlier this year.

Finally, Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. The state has been threatening to block the waterway for months. And, while Iran’s naval forces may not be able to halt traffic entirely or maintain a closure over the long term, the attempt alone would roil global oil markets. Insurance rates for oil tankers transiting the strait have already increased tenfold between May and September. Any effort to block the waterway would provoke another drastic hike. Oil prices would also soar in response to the heightened geopolitical risk.

An escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf would jeopardize many states’ energy interests. Saudi Arabia would be hit on multiple fronts from an intensified Gulf conflict. Its oil installations would incur additional physical damage, and the state would lose more resource revenue from suspended oil sales. More importantly, state oil company Saudi Aramco’s reputation as a reliable oil supplier would take another severe hit.

Saudi officials have already been scrambling to restore confidence in the national oil company after this weekend’s attacks. Saudi Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, announced on Tuesday that Abqaiq’s output will be restored by the end of the month and that the company’s long-anticipated initial public offering (IPO) will proceed as planned. However, skepticism is rampant, and any additional disruptions will wreak havoc on the company’s valuation, as well as on Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman’s plans to use IPO proceeds to finance his country’s economic diversification. Fear of further instability limits Riyadh’s room for maneuver. As Robin Mills of Qamar Energy observed, “It will be all but impossible to proceed with the IPO if there are ongoing attacks.”

Conflict escalation in the Persian Gulf would also threaten Chinese and European energy security. Saudi Arabia is currently China’s top oil supplier, providing approximately 17 percent of the state’s crude imports. Chinese consumers also continue to purchase small amounts of Iranian crude, as well as petroleum products, despite U.S. sanctions.

European countries have halted purchases from Iran and are less dependent on Saudi oil.

However, EU member states still import more than 13 percent of their resources from Gulf oil producers. An intensifying regional conflict would threaten Europeans’ access to these supplies, force them to pay higher prices, and undermine their ongoing diplomatic efforts to return Iranian crude to the global oil market.

Unsurprisingly, Chinese and European officials have adopted a cautious attitude toward the crisis. Although China’s foreign ministry condemned the attack, spokesperson Hua Chunying advised the parties “to avoid taking actions that bring about an escalation in regional tensions.”

She also refrained from attributing responsibility for the strikes to a specific actor. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pushed for an international response to the attacks. However, they also emphasized the “importance of avoiding the further escalation of tensions in the region.”

Given this reticence, if the United States wants to strike Iran, it will have to go it alone.

Invent a greener milk carton for the world

Tetra Pak’s innovation overtook the glass bottle but it needs to be improved

John Gapper

web_Tetra Pack recycling
© Ingram Pinn/Financial Times

The humble milk carton has been part of our lives for so long that it is easy to forget that it was a marvel when it first appeared in 1952. Tetra Pak’s technology made a billionaire of Hans Rausing, scion of the company’s Swedish founding family, who died last week at the age of 93.

The Tetra Pak cartons, made from layers of paperboard and polyethylene, soon displaced glass bottles because they were far lighter and could easily be stacked and distributed. Its aseptic carton, with a layer of aluminium foil that allowed heat-treated milk to remain fresh, followed in 1961.

But every technology has drawbacks and Rausing died at the moment when those of plastic are becoming distressingly obvious. Landfills are stuffed with bottles and cartons, and trillions of pieces of plastic float in the world’s oceans. What happens to the 189bn Tetra Pak containers made last year as they are discarded?

Carton makers such as Tetra Pak and SIG Combibloc of Germany are far from the only contributors to the ballooning volumes of packaging waste. In some ways, they are encouraging recycling. But the rise of the carton shows how complex and difficult is the environmental challenge.

The case for cartons is simple: they may be better than the alternatives. They are easy to transport and a study for German carton makers found that they have 78 per cent less climate impact than glass bottles. They also contain 75 per cent paper and only about 20 per cent plastic.

When collected and taken back to a specialist mill, they are also fairly recyclable. Their various layers separate out into paper, plastic and aluminium fibres when pulped in liquid, allowing the paper fibre to be mixed with virgin wood pulp and turned into cardboard boxes, tissues and the like.

This is the good news; the rest is less hopeful. First, recycling is far from universal even in Europe, which has a better record than the US. Only 47 per cent of materials from the 37bn beverage cartons made for European countries in 2016 were recycled.

Cartons are also prone to a broader paradox — as economies advance, people tend to recycle more but also to consume more. Croatia’s overall recycling rate for packaging in 2016 was 55 per cent, compared with Germany’s 71 per cent, but the average German generated four times as much packaging waste as the average Croatian.

This is a frightening prospect on a global scale. McKinsey & Co, the consultancy firm, estimates that China will comprise 28 per cent of the global packaging market by 2022 and emerging economies such as Vietnam suffer from widespread dumping not only of plastic bottles but of cartons.

Second, paperboard is easier to recycle than the plastic, or the 4 per cent aluminium content of aseptic cartons. In theory, the plastic and aluminium fibres that emerge from the soup of old cartons can be turned to other uses — the metal can become material for roofing tiles, while the polymer can be melted into pellets for gas heating or steam.

In practice, this only happens patchily and, as one study put it, “complete recycling in the strict sense is currently not feasible for beverage cartons”. A carton is carefully bonded and constructed, often with a plastic lid and a straw fixed to the side; what Tetra Pak has joined together is not easily put asunder.

Consumer consciousness of plastic waste is rising sharply, thanks to campaigns against ocean pollution. But people still like the convenience of cartons and they offer many benefits, including access to fresh milk and juice in countries without sophisticated supply chains and refrigeration.

This means companies such as Tetra Pak need to do more to make their products not only useful but also sustainable. In the short term, that involves stronger links with recycling mills and waste companies to ensure that the containers they pump into the world are returned and reused.

Tetra Pak last year agreed a partnership with Veolia, the French waste management group, to recycle more polymer and aluminium fibres from cartons for industrial use in Europe. Along with other carton makers, it is also increasing its use of recycled and environmentally approved raw materials, such as wood pulp from certified forests.

In the long term, the company faces a huge technological challenge to get to what it says is its ultimate aim — to construct cartons entirely out of renewable materials, including recycled plastic. Cartons would then no longer require fresh supplies of polymer from oil and gas refineries.

It sounds improbable but innovation in materials science was what originally enabled the milk carton. That also took a long time to perfect from the first idea of creating a tetrahedral paper carton in 1944 to the manufacture of aseptic containers 17 years later. As Hans Rausing’s father, Ruben, observed: “Doing something that nobody else has done before is actually quite hard.”

The multilayer carton turned out to be a far more useful invention than even the Rausings realised at the time. But, like plastic bottles and aluminium cans, it was imperfect. Making it greener is a worthwhile project.