About That Taiwan ‘Thucydides Trap’
Xi Jinping likes the Greek analogy because he thinks China is the rising power and the U.S. in decline. He might think twice about that.
By The Editorial Board
China's President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump on Thursday Brendan Smialowski/Pool/Getty ImagesWho knew Xi Jinping was a student of ancient Greek history?
The Chinese President warned President Trump in this summit meeting on Thursday about the “Thucydides trap,” but don’t be fooled by the historical reference.
His real point was warning Mr. Trump not to risk a war by interfering with China’s designs to retake Taiwan—by force if necessary.
Thucydides was the great ancient historian of the Peloponnesian War, and he argued that a rising Athens frightened Sparta and led to war.
Harvard political scientist Graham Allison popularized what he called the “Thucydides trap” by identifying a dozen times in history when a rising power threatened an established power and war resulted.
World War I was an example as a rising Germany threatened Britain as Europe’s leading power.
Getting what Mr. Xi likes about the analogy?
In his reading, China is the rising power and America the hegemon fearful of being surpassed.
He is warning Mr. Trump in pointed terms not to interfere with China’s ambitions or the result could be a destructive war.
No one wants war, which would be a catastrophe, but the U.S. isn’t threatening to use force against China.
The U.S. long assisted China’s rise by letting it join the World Trade Organization and hoping it would abide by liberal international rules.
Mr. Xi is the leader threatening to use force in the Asia-Pacific, especially in Taiwan.
Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump that “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations,” according to reports on the summit exchange.
“If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability.
Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.”
But a war over Taiwan today wouldn’t be an accident of mutual suspicion.
It would be a decision by Mr. Xi—a gamble that the U.S. wouldn’t intervene in a blockade, a military assault or seizure of Taiwan’s outlying islands.
Mr. Xi is the only one chipping away at peace with his blockade dress rehearsals, cyber attacks and much more.
Taiwan simply wants to continue not living under the boot of the Chinese Communist Party.
Mr. Trump reportedly said nothing in response to Mr. Xi’s Thucydides play, which we hope is a good sign.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is in Beijing with Mr. Trump, told NBC that “they always raise [Taiwan] on their side,” but “we always make clear our position and we move on to other topics.”
He added that it would be a “terrible mistake” if China were to take Taiwan by force.
The test for Mr. Trump now will be whether he releases a long-awaited U.S. arms sale to Taiwan.
Mr. Xi wants a veto over those sales, but Taiwan needs U.S. weapons as a deterrent as it works to reach its goal of spending 5% of its economy on defense by 2030.
Speaking of Thucydides and traps, one risk is that Mr. Xi really believes China is a rising power that can become a new Middle Kingdom in which everyone else is a vassal state.
His economy depends too much on exports for jobs, the country is aging fast, and its military hasn’t fought a real war in decades.
He might fall into his own trap if he thinks the U.S. really is in decline enough for China to risk a war.
The Editorial Board speaks for free markets and free people, the principles, if you will, marked in the watershed year of 1776 by Thomas Jefferson's Declaration of Independence and Adam Smith's “Wealth of Nations.”
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