By Jim Wyckoff
12 May 2010, 9:55 a.m.
Comex gold futures have pushed to a new all-time record high this week, while silver futures have notched a fresh 22-month high. Bulls are savoring very positive technical developments that include a shot of fresh upside momentum recently.
From a near-term technical basis, June Comex gold futures bulls have the strong technical advantage. June gold prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday's record high of $1,245.40 and then at $1,250.00. Shorter-term chart support is located at $1,235.00 and then at Wednesday's low of $1,227.20.
The fact that prices have now pushed to a new all-time high now suggests much bigger upside targets in the coming weeks and months. The next major upside target for the bulls is $1,500.00 an ounce. Below that level does lie strong psychological resistance at $1,300.00 and $1,400.00.
Also, gold traders should now expect significantly larger daily price moves now that prices are in uncharted territory. However, bulls should not expect those likely bigger daily price moves to all be on the upside, even though the path of least resistance for gold will remain sideways to higher until price uptrends are penetrated on the downside and negated.
The longer-term weekly and monthly charts for gold futures also show solid, longer-term price uptrends that have been in place since 2001. The weekly gold chart shows price action the past few weeks has produced an upside "breakout" from a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern that had formed on the weekly chart.
It would take a close in nearby Comex gold futures below pscyhological support at the $1,100.00 area to begin to dent longer-term bullish technical enthusiasm. To produce serious longer-term chart damage to just begin to suggest a major market top is in place in the gold market, prices would have to push below strong longer-term technical support at $1,045.00, which is the last "reaction low" on the monthly continuation chart for nearby Comex gold futures.
Importantly, at present there are no early near-term or longer-term technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand in the gold futures market. The path of least resistance for gold remains sideways to higher.
Comex silver futures are now riding the coattails of the extremely bullish gold market. Prices hit a fresh 22-month high Wednesday. Silver bulls have the solid overall near-term and longer-term technical advantage and have gained fresh upside momentum this week.
From a near-term technical perspective, July silver finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of $19.665 and then at the major psychological resistance level of $20.00. Shorter-term technical support for July silver is located at $19.25 and then at Wednesday's low of $19.11.
From a longer-term technical perspective, price uptrends are also firmly in place for Comex silver futures. See on the weekly and monthly continuation charts for nearby silver futures the longer-term technical support and resistance levels.
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