US ECONOMY / THE FINANCIAL TIMES LEX ( RECOMMENDED READING )

US economy

Published: September 8 2009 09:29

Since the second world war, the US economy has suffered a double-dip recession only once before. But that was in 1980-82, when Paul Volcker jacked up interest rates to 19 per cent, a repeat of which is hardly likely now. Meanwhile, the latest US jobs numbers suggest unemployment may be stabilising – albeit at a 26-year high of almost 10 per cent. Another place to see if the US economy might be picking up is in its factories.

Start at the beginning of the chain. New orders as measured by the Institute of Supply Management have recovered from January’s panicked levels. In its August survey, respondents who said orders were “better” for the month rose 10 percentage points. That is encouraging, although almost two-thirds of them reckoned orders were the same or worse. Meanwhile, commerce department numbers for July show no improvement; year-on-year orders are still off an astonishing 23 per cent. New orders, excluding transportation, even dropped month on month, having improved in the two previous periods.

Orders should lead to shipments. Given that the pipeline of so-called “unfilled orders” fell for the 10th consecutive month in July – a record since the series began – factories clearly have capacity. Shipments of durable goods, ex-transportation, are growing – just – but remain about a fifth lower than the same month last year. There is also no improvement in the year-on-year numbers for industrial production.

Green shooters have long hoped a period of restocking lay around the corner. But stocks fell another percentage point in July. In essence, that means that not once in the past seven months have manufacturers seen enough growth on the horizon to justify piling the yards higher. That is also why they are still making workers redundant or shortening their weeks. Factories are stirring again, but only just.