Trigger pulled
America and Israel bomb Iran, aiming to topple its regime
Donald Trump calls on Iranians to rise up. War could quickly engulf the Middle East
People watch as smoke rises on the skyline after an explosion in Tehran, Iran / Photograph: APWEEKS OF GUNBOAT diplomacy came to an end as American and Israeli warplanes began bombing targets across Iran on February 28th.
The first signal to the outside world that war had begun was a siren breaking the Shabbat quiet across Israel, telling residents to remain close to shelters.
Minutes later, footage showed columns of smoke rising over Tehran.
An hour and a half after that, President Donald Trump released an eight-minute video announcing America had launched “major combat operations in Iran”, saying that it would be “a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests”.
Soon after, the first alerts were received in Israel warning that Iranian missiles were heading for the north of the country.
Then the warnings spread across Israel and to Gulf countries as well.
The first reported casualty was someone in Abu Dhabi who was struck by shrapnel after missiles were intercepted over the United Arab Emirates.
These were the first exchanges in a war that could engulf much of the Middle East.
The last time Israel launched a war against Iran, in June, it initiated the campaign.
America joined after ten days with a single long-range attack on the country’s uranium-enrichment plants.
This is different.
First, America and Israel have begun the war together.
Mr Trump is not waiting to see how things progress before deploying long-range bombers.
America has sent an armada capable, along with the Israelis, of launching hundreds of strike missions for days, perhaps weeks, to come.
Statements by Mr Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, made clear this is a joint operation.
Second, the war aims are much broader, stretching to regime change.
Third, the Iranian response has come much faster than it did last year, and the regime has aimed its retaliation at a much wider range of targets.
Both Mr Trump and Mr Netanyahu were explicit about their desire for regime change, assisted by a domestic uprising, in their co-ordinated statements.
Addressing “the great, proud people of Iran”, the American president promised them “the hour of your freedom is at hand” and that once “we are finished, take over your government.
It will be yours to take.
This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.”
Mr Netanyahu proclaimed that “Our joint action will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands,” calling upon Iranians “to rid themselves of the yoke of tyranny and bring about a free and peace-seeking Iran”.
Immediately after the first strikes Israeli officials said that America and Israel would spend the next 48 hours directing all the fire-power at their disposal on Iran’s offensive capabilities, particularly its arsenal of ballistic missiles.
Some reports from Iran suggested there had been attacks on known missile sites.
But it appeared that the main strikes, at least early on, were against key government buildings in the capital, including the headquarters of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and the Iranian parliament.
Strikes also targeted Iran’s judiciary, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the country’s intelligence services, its atomic-energy agency and sites across the country, including the port of Chabahar.
They bore the hallmarks of a comprehensive leadership-decapitation operation.
Israeli officials have confirmed that the supreme leader and President Masoud Pezeshkian were targets, though there is no information about their well-being.
No one should be surprised by these developments.
Israeli defence officials had been warning since the end of the war in June that they had unfinished business, particularly against Iran’s ballistic missiles, over 500 of which were launched at Israel during that war.
Israel destroyed an estimated third of Iran’s remaining long-range missile stockpile and launchers, but production resumed quickly.
“It’s a question of when, not if,” said a senior Israeli intelligence source of further Israeli strikes, shortly after Mr Trump ordered a ceasefire on June 24th.
When widespread protests began in Iran at the end of December and Mr Trump promised the protesters that “help is on its way”, Israel and America began joint planning.
Mr Netanyahu urged the president not to proceed before there were enough American forces in the region to land a significant blow on Iran and a shield of missile defence batteries to protect America’s allies.
The American build-up in the region was the largest since the Iraq war in 2003.
Two aircraft-carrier groups, over 200 warplanes, backed up by dozens of aerial tankers and surveillance aircraft, arrived.
Meanwhile, both America and Iran played for time in three rounds of fruitless talks on a new nuclear agreement.
The last round of talks ended on February 26th, with Iranian offers to close multiple nuclear sites and the suggestion of more diplomacy to come.
American planes and ships were already dispersing from their bases, preparing to strike.
Iran’s initial response has been a flurry of missile launches, much smaller than the massive salvoes back in June, but directed at a wider range of targets, including Israel and American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
These mostly seem to have been intercepted by Israeli and American missile defences though some missiles were reported to have hit.
Notably, the first barrage against Israel on February 28th was much smaller than the equivalent strike last year.
Iran’s first two barrages then were of over a hundred missiles each.
The change of approach suggests Iran is calibrating its retaliation, hoping that America remains open to diplomacy.
The alternative is the Iranians assume that, since the decision has been made in Washington to go for regime change, they have nothing to lose by firing all they have in every direction.
So far, Iran seems to be targeting American bases in the neighbouring Gulf countries, but if the conflict escalates, there is a wide range of cities and energy infrastructure where they could wreak havoc with implications for global energy supplies.
Iran could also urge its proxies in the region—Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq—to join the war, using the missiles it has supplied them.
The Houthis are reported to have promised to intervene on behalf of Iran.
The scale of Iranian retaliation will influence the course of the American-Israeli campaign.
Despite the large build-up, the two countries will only be capable of continuing a war at full tempo for a few weeks before their munition stockpiles falter.
But regime change is extremely unlikely to be achieved within days and by air power alone.
Iran’s leadership has prepared for this and will be in bunkers.
Mr Khamenei is thought to have been whisked out of Tehran to a safer location.
The regime has already appointed standby replacements for any officials who are killed.
Neither is it likely that the protests will resume while missiles are flying.
“When bombs are falling, people don’t take to the streets,” observes an Israeli intelligence analyst.
He will have to decide within days if enough has been achieved in the first wave of strikes to declare victory.
The first stage of this war has been meticulously planned.
But no battle plan ever lasts beyond its first encounter with reality.
Although America and Israel have unleashed a mighty war machine, Iran’s Islamic regime has long been preparing for this day.
It is unlikely to leave without a fight.
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