Day two
The many risks to Donald Trump’s plans to “run” Venezuela
The regime that was led by Nicolás Maduro may well prove tricky to control
FOR MONTHS, he tried to give the impression that he had not a worry in the world.
His most recent party trick, on state television, was crooning John Lennon’s “Imagine” in his nursery-level English.
He wanted “peace, not war” he promised.
He claimed that his one telephone conversation with President Donald Trump, in November, was “cordial”.
He used to tell his inner circle that he slept “like a baby”.
It was all a monumental miscalculation.
Now, after being seized by American special forces in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, during an extraordinary nighttime raid early on January 3rd, he may never sleep again in the country he misruled for more than a decade.
By the end of the day Venezuela’s former president, Nicolás Maduro, was being perp-walked through the offices of the US Drug Enforcement Administration in New York.
The charges for which he has been indicted carry a sentence of between 20 years and life in prison.
Mr Maduro’s downfall has brought joy to millions of Venezuelans, particularly emigrants.
Impromptu street parties broke out from Santiago in Chile to Miami.
Inside the country caution rules.
It is far from clear that Mr Maduro’s departure heralds the end of the regime.
In a press conference held at his Florida mansion on January 3rd, Mr Trump played down the idea that María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition’s most prominent figure and Nobel peace prizewinner, should lead the country.
Instead he claimed, bizarrely, that she “doesn’t have the support or the respect within the country”.
The name of Edmundo González, who with her backing actually won the last presidential election in 2024 (Ms Machado was barred from running), did not even rate a mention.
Mr Trump instead promised that the United States would “run” Venezuela.
He said that Delcy Rodríguez, Mr Maduro’s vice-president, was “essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again” and said, incorrectly, that she had already been sworn in as president.
Though he promised a “transition” at some point, which could provide an opening for Ms Machado, Mr Trump seemed most interested in profiting from the country’s oil.
Mr Trump’s plan, which was short on detail and long on optimism, appears to be to unleash American capitalism on Venezuelan oil reserves with the help of a pliant new Venezuelan government.
He said oil companies would invest “billions and billions” of dollars to rejuvenate Venezuela’s oil fields, and that the country would be rebuilt on the back of the resultant revenues, eventually leading to elections.
That depends on Ms Rodríguez’s compliance.
Mr Trump appeared to think that was secure.
“I think she was quite gracious, but she really doesn’t have a choice,” he said, repeatedly threatening further attacks should his wishes be ignored.
But that was not how Ms Rodríguez, who brands herself a leftist ideologue, summarised the day’s events.
Appearing on state television soon after Mr Trump’s remarks, she said that Mr Maduro remained the country’s only president, despite his capture.
“We will never be the colony of any empire,” she said.
“What is being done to Venezuela is barbaric.”
The Trump administration seemed to gloss over those comments, treating them as domestic signalling necessary to keep the regime in line.
Ms Rodríguez, who serves as both the vice-president and the minister for oil, is seen as economically literate compared with most in the regime.
Part-educated in France, she helped steer pro-market reforms and an informal dollarisation of the economy in 2019, which brought some stability.
Her brother is the head of the pliant national assembly.
Their father was a leftist revolutionary who was tortured and probably murdered by Venezuelan state security forces in 1976.
In business circles in Caracas she is seen as pragmatic, although both she and her brother are also sometimes described as being on a “revenge trip” against the country’s old elite, including Ms Machado.
Even if her televised remarks are posturing, and she really is working with Mr Trump in private, she faces the immediate challenge of ensuring that other powerful figures support her.
Earlier on January 3rd the interior minister and mercurial strongman, Diosdado Cabello, urged calm and declared that “we’ve learned how to survive all of these circumstances.”
The defence minister, Vladimir Padrino, promised that Venezuela’s forces would “resist” the American attack.
The biggest question is whether the Venezuelan army will back Ms Rodríguez and thus Mr Trump’s apparent plan.
It folded in the face of American military might, and probably fears calling Mr Trump’s bluff.
Many generals have profited handsomely from drug trafficking and corruption under the regime.
If Ms Rodríguez offers a chance to trouser more cash, or at least keep the loot they already have, they may fall into line.
So far, the army top brass have said little publicly.
However, there is a risk that the army splits.
Some factions may back Ms Rodríguez; others may want power for themselves or Mr Padrino; a few, perhaps joining with dissident soldiers who have already fled to neighbouring countries, could push for Ms Machado’s return.
A splintered army would add to the dangerous mix of armed men in Venezuela and could destabilise the regime.
The morning after the Americans swept in, some colectivos, pro-regime armed gangs, were seen patrolling the streets of Caracas.
The National Liberation Army, a Colombian rebel group, and drug gangs such as Tren de Aragua also operate in Venezuela.
Mr Trump appears to believe the threat of further strikes can keep all these various actors in check.
But if conflict breaks out it could require American soldiers on Venezuelan soil to restore order.
Mr Trump said he was “not afraid” to commit troops.
Ms Machado finds herself sidelined at the very moment that her dream of a Venezuela without Mr Maduro is realised.
She will surely lobby the Trump administration to change tack, though months of sweet-talking Mr Trump have got her nowhere so far.
Failing that, perhaps she will try to encourage demonstrations in Venezuela in favour of a rapid transition.
But organising a popular uprising would be hard.
The country is weary after decades of oppression and collapsing incomes.
Some 8m people have emigrated since 2015, leaving relatively few of protesting age.
Repression after the election theft in 2024, when Mr Maduro boasted that he had imprisoned thousands, has left most too scared to make their unhappiness heard.
After the American raids, Venezuelans were more focused on surviving than demonstrating.
The regime has its existential challenges too.
Venezuela’s allies have offered little support.
Cuban intelligence officers, who have long worked to protect Mr Maduro and purge the army of dissidents, failed to protect their client.
Officials in Havana, which relies on Venezuelan oil, will now probably back whichever regime figure replaces him.
But Cuba is a dramatically weakened ally, now confronting its own struggle for survival.
Mr Trump is promising to cut off its oil supply and is threatening direct action against the island itself.
Relations with Ms Rodríguez seem fractious.
“She is irritated by the Cubans,” says one Western diplomat in Caracas, who suggested that the Cuban authorities were ungrateful for all the cheap oil.
China, the main buyer of Venezuelan oil, and Russia, which has repeatedly supplied weaponry, have long helped Mr Maduro.
Both strongly condemned the raid but said nothing to suggest any imminent practical support.
Mr Maduro never had many friends in the region.
The leftist leaders of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico tended to indulge him most.
Those ties now look weak, too.
All three governments reacted with indignation to the American attack, and condemned the violation of sovereignty.
But none is likely to support any resistance against the United States.
Instead their interest is narrower: they worry about chaos and Venezuelan refugees spilling across the region.
Mexico and Colombia also fear American attacks on their own territory.
At his press conference Mr Trump threatened Mexico and told President Gustavo Petro of Colombia to “watch his ass”.
With few foreign backers, uncertain support from the army and facing threats from Mr Trump, Ms Rodríguez may well have chosen, or will soon choose, to strike a deal.
The regime she works for is curiously enduring and adaptable.
It survived the death of Hugo Chávez, its original leader.
Now a pact with its supposed enemy could give it another chance to survive.
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